Tonight, American Learner Tien takes on Jakub Mensik in the third round at the US Open, giving us a compelling top-20 matchup.
Before this run, Tien had never made it past the first round at Flushing Meadows, going 0-4 in his previous four appearances. Now, he’s one win away from reaching the round of 16 for the first time, but standing in his way is a 2026 French Open semifinalist in Mensik.
Below, we’ll break down our Jakub Mensik vs. Learner Tien prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
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Jakub Mensik vs. Learner Tien Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Third Round
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Jakub Mensik vs. Learner Tien Prediction for US Open – Saturday, September 5
Match Winner Payouts: Mensik 2.04x | Tien 1.72x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Mensik 30-15 | Tien 26-15
Head-to-Head Record: Tien leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN2
Learner Tien hasn’t dropped a set through two rounds, defeating Nuno Borges and crowd favorite Gael Monfils. Tien dominated the stat sheet against both players and has been broken just once so far.
Ahead of coming to New York, Tien bounced back from poor results in June and July with a run to the Canadian Open semifinals before falling to eventual champion Ben Shelton. It was an important result heading into the US Open and a chance to rebuild some momentum.
Despite never having any previous success at the US Open, the 20-year-old was a quarterfinalist at this year’s Australian Open, so a deep run here isn’t out of the range of outcomes.
Jakub Mensik stands in Tien’s way and is another young player who has risen up the ranks this season.
The 21-year-old reached a major semifinal for the first time at this year’s French Open, and while he struggled through a disappointing grass swing, he’s coming off solid results in his last two hard-court events, reaching the quarterfinals in Montreal and the round of 16 in Cincinnati.
Mensik has dropped just one set so far, but he’s benefited from a generous draw, facing a pair of players ranked outside the top 100. He got past lucky loser Sintaro Mochizuki in straight sets and then knocked out qualifier Jurij Rodionov in four.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, this one could go either way, with Tien showing a 53.1% chance of defeating Mensik.
While the margins figure to be thin between these two tonight, Tien has been pretty flawless in his first two matches, and having home-court advantage could be enough to push the American past the finish line.
Make your Mensik vs. Tien US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Jakub Mensik vs. Learner Tien Pick for the US Open on Saturday
With these two players being so evenly matched, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this go four or five sets.
The only time these two previously faced each other was at the Next Gen ATP Finals in 2024, and while the scoring format is different, it was an extremely close battle that Tien won 4-3(6), 4-3(3), 2-4, 2-4, 4-3(8).
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Tien ranks 12th on hard courts, while Mensik is 16th. Only about 16 points separate their ratings.
Both players have similar records vs. top-20 opponents in 2026. Tien is 5-5 against them, and Mensik is 5-6.
In Mensik’s 13 Grand Slam matches this year, both players have won a set in nine of them.
Mensik vs. Tien Pick – 39 Total Games
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This third-round match between Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien could be a close one between two up-and-comers. Which player comes out on top and advances to the round of 16?
Don’t wait until Saturday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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