The US Open round of 16 continues on Monday, with Iga Swiatek and Qinwen Zheng kicking things off in the morning on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Swiatek is no stranger to deep runs at the US Open, winning the title in 2022 and reaching at least the round of 16 for the sixth straight year.
On the other hand, Zheng is a bit of a surprise, as she came into the event ranked outside the top 100 and actually needed to go through qualifying to make the main draw. However, she’s a two-time US Open quarterfinalist and was a finalist at the 2024 Australian Open, so her ceiling is high when she’s at her best.
Below, we’ll break down our Iga Swiatek vs. Qinwen Zheng prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Monday’s match now!
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Iga Swiatek vs. Qinwen Zheng Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Round of 16
Below are the payouts for who will win Monday’s Swiatek vs. Zheng match, via PrizePicks.
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Iga Swiatek vs. Qinwen Zheng Prediction for US Open – Monday, September 7
Match Winner Payouts: Swiatek 1.2x | Zheng 4.16x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Swiatek 33-13 | Zheng 11-13
Head-to-Head Record: Swiatek leads 7-1
Scheduled Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Iga Swiatek came into the North American hard-court swing with underwhelming results by her lofty standards, still seeking her first title in 2026 and failing to reach the quarterfinals at either the French Open or Wimbledon.
That all changed with a much-needed run to the Canadian Open title, the kind of result that could give Swiatek the self-belief needed to get to her second US Open final.
She also advanced to the Cincinnati Open semifinals and now enters this match with a stellar 13-1 record on hard courts this summer. Swiatek has won all three US Open matches in straight sets, too.
Swiatek's opponent arrived in New York under far different circumstances.
Following elbow surgery that ended her 2025 season, Qinwen Zheng has struggled to string together wins this year, causing her to fall out of the top 100 for the first time since 2022. Coming into the tournament as a qualifier with little momentum, Zheng didn’t seem like a candidate to make much noise in New York.
However, including qualifying, she now won six matches in a row and gutted through four straight three-setters. The most dramatic by far was her third-round win over Madison Keys, where she at one point trailed 0-5 in the deciding set.
Given that Zheng entered the US Open with a losing record, it’s been a miraculous run for the 23-year-old, who may finally be regaining the confidence that once made her a top-10 player.
However, this is a daunting opponent for Zheng. Swiatek has beaten her seven out of eight times, including all five times they’ve played on hard courts.
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Swiatek has an 82.5% chance of victory. Zheng seems to have found a spark this week, but facing an in-form Swiatek who’s historically dominated this rivalry will be a big ask.
Make your Swiatek vs. Zheng US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Iga Swiatek vs. Qinwen Zheng Pick for the US Open on Monday
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set so far in this tournament, scoring 22.5, 23, and 17.5 fantasy points.
She’s 17-1 against players ranked outside the top 50 this season, and 14 of those wins have been in straight sets.
Four of Swiatek’s last five wins over Zheng have been in straight sets. In their most recent meeting, she won 6-3, 6-3 at 2025 Indian Wells. Swiatek scored 21.5 fantasy points.
On hard courts in 2026, the Polish player has won 48.9% of her return points, easily the best clip among the top 50 players.
Pick Swiatek to win + fantasy score on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Swiatek Pick – 20.5 Fantasy Score
Make US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Qinwen Zheng has enjoyed a surprise run to the round of 16 as a qualifier but will now face a player who’s had her number. Can she flip the script against Iga Swiatek?
Don’t wait until Monday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!
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