At the US Open, we’re getting a fun one between Gael Monfils and Learner Tien on Thursday night. Tien is among the top American men left in the draw, and he could have his hands full against Monfils, the electric Frenchman who’s playing in his final US Open.
Below, we’ll break down our Gael Monfils vs. Learner Tien prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Thursday’s match now!
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Gael Monfils vs. Learner Tien Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Second Round
Below are the payouts for who will win Thursday’s Monfils vs. Tien match, via PrizePicks.
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Gael Monfils vs. Learner Tien US Open Prediction – Thursday, September 3
Match Winner Payouts: Monfils 4.54x | Tien 1.16x
Tournament Round: Second Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Monfils 4-9 | Tien 26-15
Head-to-Head Record: Tien leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN2
Gael Monfils just turned 40 years old and will retire at the end of the season, but he still knows how to put on a show. On Tuesday, he turned back the clock and dazzled the New York crowd in a 2-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 win over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.
While that was a strong performance from the Frenchman, he’s otherwise struggled to maintain any sort of consistency in his final campaign. As he proved on Tuesday, Monfils can still play at a high level at times, but the victory was just his fifth in 2026.
At this stage in his career, Monfils tends to fade in longer matches. Before his first-round win, he was 1-6 in matches that went three or more sets this year.
As it so happens, one of those losses came against Learner Tien in August at the Canadian Open. In that encounter, Monfils actually bageled Tien in the second set but still fell 6-3, 0-6, 6-3.
Tien advanced all the way to the semifinals at that event, easily his best result this summer. The American has enjoyed a strong year on hard courts overall, too, highlighted by a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open to begin the season, his best-ever finish in a Grand Slam.
The 20-year-old arrived in New York as the world No. 15, and he was unbothered in his opening match, dispatching Nuno Borges 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in an hour and 40 minutes. Tien was like a human backboard against Borges, winning 49% of his return points and converting 6 of 16 break point chances.
We should see a rowdy crowd in Louis Armstrong Stadium for what could be Monfils’ final match. Given the circumstances, the Frenchman figures to empty whatever he has left in the tank against Tien, but his younger opponent seems likely to outlast him in the end.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Tien wins this match 70.3% of the time.
Make your Monfils vs. Tien US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Gael Monfils vs. Learner Tien for the US Open on Thursday
Monfils vs. Tien Pick – 34.5 Total Games
Despite his poor record, Monfils hasn’t been an easy out in majors this season. Including his first-round match, all three of his Grand Slam matches in 2026 have gone four or more sets.
As a reminder, the lone meeting between these two at the Canadian Open went to a deciding third set.
Tien doesn't have an imposing serve, which could help Monfils get break point opportunities. On hard courts this year, the American has won 63.9% of his service points with a 9.1% ace rate, both below-average marks among the top 50 players. He logged only 1 ace in his first-round match.
However, Tien is also a strong returner, winning 37.5% of his return points on this surface in 2026. That's the 12th-best mark among the top 50 players. Even if he experiences any issues on serve against the Frenchman, he should have his share of chances to break as well.
Pick Tien to win + total games won on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Gael Monfils vs. Learner Tien could be one of the most entertaining matches of the day. Can the Frenchman work his magic one more time and upset an opponent half his age?
Don’t wait until Thursday’s matches start—make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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