Americans Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen will go toe-to-toe in Tuesday’s second quarterfinal matchup on a packed US Open slate.
Tiafoe is coming off a statement win over Daniil Medvedev and is now a win away from reaching his third US Open semifinal in the last five years. Meanwhile, Michelsen has been flying under the radar all tournament, yet he’s into his first major quarterfinal without losing a single set.
Below, we’ll break down our Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 1:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Tuesday’s match now!
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Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Quarterfinals
Below are the payouts for who will win Tuesday’s Tiafoe vs. Michelsen match, via PrizePicks.
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Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen Prediction for US Open – Tuesday, September 8
Match Winner Payouts: Tiafoe 1.61x | Michelsen 2.17x
Tournament Round: Quarterfinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Tiafoe 37-16 | Michelsen 23-17
Head-to-Head Record: Tiafoe leads 2-0
Scheduled Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Since going five sets in his first-round match, Frances Tiafoe has seemingly found another level as he’s progressed through the tournament, winning his last three matches in straight sets.
The biggest one was undoubtedly his 7-6(1), 6-4, 7-6(6) victory over Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16. Not only is Medvedev a past US Open champion (2021), but he beat Tiafoe six out of seven times before this event.
Alex Michelsen probably wasn’t one of the first Americans to come to mind as a potential candidate to reach this stage.
The 22-year-old arrived in New York barely ranked inside the top 50, and outside a run to the round of 16 at the 2025 Australian Open, he had otherwise never previously advanced past the third round of a Grand Slam. Following a first-round loss at Wimbledon, Michelsen won eight of nine Challenger matches, but against tour-level competition in Washington, Montreal, and Cincinnati, he went just 5-3.
And yet, Michelsen has won all four US Open matches in straight sets, defeating Federico Cina, Brandon Nakashima, Daniel Merida Aguilar, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
In particular, his top-20 win over an in-form Nakashima was impressive, as Nakashima had reached at least the semifinals in all three of his tune-up tournaments this summer.
However, this is uncharted territory for the young American, whereas Tiafoe has been knocking on the door at this event for years now. Tiafoe could also have an additional mental edge due to his 2-0 head-to-head record against Michelsen.
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Frances has a 60.1% win probability in this match. Tiafoe is easily the more accomplished player of the two, and especially after vanquishing some demons with his win over Medvedev, he appears locked in entering this all-American battle.
Make your Tiafoe vs. Michelsen US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
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Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex Michelsen for the US Open on Tuesday
Tiafoe Pick – 18.5 Fantasy Score
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
In his run to the quarterfinals, Tiafoe has scored 18, 26.5, 29, and 25 fantasy points. His only match to fall under 19 points went five sets.
Tiafoe has won his matches against Michelsen by scores of 6-4, 6-3 and 7-5, 6-1.
Michelsen has lost nine of his 11 matches against top-20 opponents in 2026. On hard courts this year, Michelsen has been aced 10.7% of the time. The average among the top 50 players is 8.8%.
Tiafoe was a finalist at the Cincinnati Open and has now won nine of his last 10 matches.
Pick Tiafoe to win + fantasy score on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Frances Tiafoe is in the midst of another deep run at the US Open, while Alex Michelsen is a surprise quarterfinalist. Which American will advance to the semifinals?
Don’t wait until Tuesday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
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