The Florida State Seminoles seek their second consecutive road win with a trip to the Steel City to face the Pittsburgh Panthers. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on Friday, November 13 at Acrisure Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
The Seminoles (4-5) picked up their first away victory in ages in last Saturday’s 31-24 victory at Boston College. It also marked a victory in the head coaching debut of Rick Stockstill, who took over for the recently fired Mike Norvell.
The Panthers (6-3) snapped a three-game slide in a 34-11 blowout of Georgia Tech on Halloween. Pitt’s defense looked scary in slowing down the Yellow Jackets, allowing 238 yards after giving up 52 points to Miami.
Below, we'll break down our Florida State vs. Pittsburgh prediction and picks for Friday's college football game, including the winner, spread, and over/under for PrizePicks.
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Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, November 13
The Panthers enter Friday’s game as 3.5-point favorites against the Seminoles. Florida State returns a 2.32x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Florida State vs. Pittsburgh game on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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The Norvell era came to an abrupt halt following a 36-24 home defeat to Clemson on October 31. The Seminoles fell in an early 10-0 hole to Boston College but managed 21 second-quarter points before pulling away for the elusive road victory.
The last time FSU won a road game outside the state of Florida came in November 2023 at Pittsburgh by a final of 24-7. That was a different time for the program, which won the ACC Championship that season. It owns an 11-22 record since.
Last season, the Panthers went into Tallahassee and escaped with a 34-31 triumph as 10.5-point road underdogs. Pitt QB Mason Heintschel threw for 321 yards and a pair of TDs, but he’s sidelined after suffering a torn ACL in an October win against Virginia Tech.
Following Heintschel’s injury, the Panthers managed to score 20.3 points per game (PPG) during a three-game slide vs. North Carolina, Boston College, and Miami.
QB Holden Geriner completed 13 of 30 passes for 180 yards against Georgia Tech, but Pitt rushed for 281 yards, highlighted by 185 yards and 2 TDs from RB Damon Ferguson Jr.
Pittsburgh’s ground game is 100th nationally in EPA/rush, according to Game on Paper, while the team's gone for at least 150 yards in three of the last four games. The Panthers have excelled on the defensive side, ceding more than 103 rushing yards once in the past five games and ranking fourth in EPA/rush.
Heintschel being sidelined is beneficial to the Seminoles’ defense, which is 116th in EPA/dropback. FSU has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in each of its past two games after yielding 326 yards to Miami’s Darian Mensah in a double-overtime defeat last month.
FSU and Pittsburgh sit side-by-side in net-adjusted EPA/play. The Seminoles are 51st nationally, followed by the Panthers at 52nd.
Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Prediction on Spread – 11/13/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Florida State vs. Pittsburgh pick against the spread for Friday, November 13.
- Florida State hasn't posted consecutive spread covers since September of last year.
- The Seminoles own a 5-9 against-the-spread (ATS) mark in their last 14 ACC contests.
- Pittsburgh wraps up its home schedule tonight, posting a 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 ATS mark at Acrisure Stadium.
- Pitt’s defensive success rate sits 11th in the country, compared to 102nd for Florida State.
- The Panthers allowed at least 249 passing yards in four straight games before ceding 143 against Georgia Tech.
- FSU QB Ashton Daniels has a projection of 149.5 passing yards. He's managed to eclipse that mark in seven straight games, including four outings of at least 224 yards.
- A staggering 11 different WRs have compiled 60 or more yards against the Seminoles. Pitt WR Blue Hicks owns six performances of at least 60 receiving yards; his Friday projection is 53.5.
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The Seminoles are going for a rare two-game road winning streak tonight in Pittsburgh. Can FSU secure its second victory since firing Norvell, or will the Panthers defeat the Seminoles for a second straight season?
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