Louisiana vs. UL Monroe Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Thursday, November 12

Week 11 of the college football season features two Thursday games, including Louisiana and UL Monroe on November 12 at 9:00 p.m. ET. Ahead of Thursday night’s Sun Belt kickoff on ESPN2, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 10.5-point road favorites for the spread vs. the Warhawks, via PrizePicks.

Louisiana has alternated wins and losses over the last five weeks, with its latest matchup being a 28-26 victory over South Alabama in Week 10. Meanwhile, UL Monroe is also coming off a two-point win, defeating Arkansas State in Week 10 to improve to 2-7 this season.

Below, we'll break down our Louisiana vs. UL Monroe prediction and picks for Thursday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks on PrizePicks.

Make your Louisiana vs. UL Monroe picks for Thursday college football on PrizePicks now!

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Louisiana vs. UL Monroe Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, November 12

Louisiana enters Thursday’s game as a 10.5-point road favorite against UL Monroe, with a 1.21x payout to win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Louisiana vs. UL Monroe game. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Louisiana vs. UL Monroe prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Stats and data in this article are from PFF, Game on Paper, and Two Deep unless stated otherwise.

Louisiana boasts an effective rushing attack, led by QB Lunch Winfield (an elite name) and RB JJ Garner. With Winfield and Garner combining for 1,066 rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs, the Ragin’ Cajuns reside in the 80th percentile in EPA/rush (0.12).

According to PrizePicks, Winfield is projected for 60.5 rush yards, while Garner is forecasted for 56.5 rush yards vs. UL Monroe tonight.

Running the ball efficiently and playing stout defense is the name of the game for Louisiana. The Ragin Cajuns’ defense is in the 57th percentile or better in both EPA/pass (0.00) and EPA/rush allowed (0.02).

Even though Louisiana has gone 4-2 over its last six games, the team has scored 28 or more points in five of those contests.

As for UL Monroe, it’s been a struggle offensively in both phases, ranking in the 36th percentile in EPA/pass (0.02) and the 34th percentile in EPA/rush (-0.01).

Of the 91 college QBs with 225 or more dropbacks this year, QB Aidan Armenta has the 23rd-fewest yards per attempt (7.0), the 27th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (3.6%), and the 21st-highest pressure-to-sack rate (20.3%).

On the defensive side of the ball, the Warhawks are in the 22nd percentile in EPA/pass (0.17) and the second percentile in EPA/rush allowed (0.18). 

Entering Week 11, UL Monroe has lost its games when it has given up more than 17 points.

Louisiana vs. UL Monroe Prediction on Spread – 11/12/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Louisiana vs. UL Monroe prediction on the spread, which is set at 10.5 points for Thursday, November 12.

• Not only can Louisiana run the ball effectively, but it can also keep drives alive with a 65th-percentile late-down success rate (46.1%). 
• On the other hand, UL Monroe’s defense is in the 17th percentile in late-down success rate allowed (50.0%).
• Among the 138 FBS schools, the Ragin’ Cajuns are tied for the 29th-best turnover margin per game (+0.4).
• As for the Warhawks, they are tied for 93rd in turnover margin per game (-0.4).
• The Warhawks have lost by at least 14 points in five of their seven losses.
• Louisiana is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season.
• Meanwhile, UL Monroe is 0-4 ATS when playing at home in 2026.

Lock in your Louisiana vs. UL Monroe prediction on PrizePicks before Thursday’s game.

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Make Louisiana vs. UL Monroe Picks on PrizePicks

Louisiana can control the time of possession and stifle UL Monroe’s offense with its formidable defense. Taking that into account, the Ragin’ Cajuns are in a stellar spot to improve to 7-3 with a convincing victory over the Warhawks.

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