Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Thursday, November 12

Two AAC teams looking to climb the standings will face off Thursday evening. The South Florida Bulls host the Memphis Tigers on Thursday, November 12, with the game kicking off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Tigers are a 3.5-point favorite on the spread, via PrizePicks.

Memphis has a 7-2 record and is coming off a 49-22 win against Army on Halloween in its most recent contest. Meanwhile, South Florida is 6-3 and fell 20-17 to East Carolina last week.

Below, we’ll break down our Memphis vs. South Florida prediction and picks for Thursday night’s game, including the spread, over/under, and key player projections for PrizePicks.

Make your Memphis vs. South Florida picks on PrizePicks now!

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Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, November 12

Memphis enters Thursday's game as a 3.5-point favorite against South Florida, returning a 1.53x payout if it wins outright, via PrizePicks — or $153 on a $100 entry if you’re right.

Here are the full payouts for Memphis vs. South Florida. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Memphis vs. South Florida prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Memphis has put together an impressive campaign, winning five of its last six games. In fact, #24 Boise State and Tulane are the only losses it's suffered so far.

The Tigers are extremely successful thanks to an electric offense, led by QB Marcus Stokes. Stokes played at West Florida at the Division II level the past two seasons, but the junior signal-caller has passed for 300+ yards in five games after transferring to Memphis.

As dangerous as Memphis is through the air, the team also possesses a stellar rushing attack. RB Jaylin Carter leads the way with 151 carries for 929 yards (6.2 yards per carry) and 10 TDs. Carter has recorded 0.21 EPA/rush, ranking 52nd in the FBS, per Game on Paper.

Defensively, Memphis has allowed 23.6 PPG, good for fourth in the AAC. The Tigers have also allowed 377.0 total yards per game (fourth in-conference) while keeping opponents in check through the air with 189.1 passing YPG (third). 

Meanwhile, South Florida got off to a tremendous start by winning its first four games. However, USF has landed in the loss column three times in its last five contests, including recent defeats to Temple, UTSA, and East Carolina. 

The Bulls rely heavily on their strong defense, which is allowing 15.1 PPG. South Florida also allows the second-fewest YPG (312.7) in the AAC but hasn’t faced many offenses of Memphis's caliber.

A great deal of South Florida’s offensive production comes from RB D.J. Crowther, who's rushed for 689 yards and 7 TDs. In fact, Crowther accounts for 29.2% of the Bulls’ total yards.

Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction on Spread – 11/12/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Memphis vs. USF pick against the spread for Thursday, November 12.

• Memphis is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games and is 2-0 ATS in its last two meetings with South Florida.
• The Bulls are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
• The Tigers have averaged 37.6 PPG and rank second-best in the AAC in YPG (513.3).
• Memphis averages 290.6 passing YPG, sitting third in the AAC.
• South Florida averages just 168.0 YPG through the air, which is 10th in the AAC. Meanwhile, the Memphis defense has surrendered -0.10 EPA/pass, ranking 16th nationally.
• Memphis has excelled at getting after the QB, tallying 23 sacks (fourth in the AAC) and producing a 14.6% havoc rate (77th nationally).

Lock in your Memphis vs. USF prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.

Memphis vs. South Florida Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/12/26

Here are the top Memphis vs. South Florida picks to target on Thursday, November 12. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB D.J. Crowther and QB Marcus Stokes.

South Florida RB D.J. Crowther vs. Memphis: 86.5 Rush Yards 

• Crowther has carried the ball 138 times for 689 yards (5.0 YPC) and 7 TDs in nine games.
• The South Florida RB has rushed for at least 87 yards in three games this season. 
• Crowther carried the ball 17 times for 111 yards against East Carolina last week.
• The Memphis defense has allowed 0.12 EPA/rush, sitting just 110th in the country.

Pick D.J. Crowther + USF to cover the spread on PrizePicks!

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Memphis QB Marcus Stokes vs. South Florida: 240.5 Pass Yards 

• Stokes has completed 69.1% of his passes for 2,532 yards and 25 TDs with just 6 INTs.
• The Memphis field general has recorded 0.25 EPA/dropback, ranking 18th among collegiate QBs.
• Stokes averages 9.8 yards per completion, which leads all AAC QBs.
• The junior QB has tallied the second-most yards per dropback (9.01), trailing only Ohio State's Julian Sayin.

Add Marcus Stokes + Memphis to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Memphis vs. South Florida Picks on PrizePicks

Memphis possesses one of the more electric offenses in the AAC and has won five of its last six games. Can the Tigers keep up their winning ways against the Bulls on Thursday night? 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Memphis vs. USF picks on PrizePicks now.

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