Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction, MLB Picks for Tuesday, July 21

The Los Angeles Dodgers will play the second game of a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday, July 21 at 6:40 p.m. ET on TBS. Philly is favored over the reigning World Series champions, returning a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks to secure a victory on Tuesday.

On Monday, the Phillies defeated the Dodgers 10-7 to hand L.A. its second straight loss. Philadelphia got 2 home runs from SS Trea Turner and homers from 1B Bryce Harper and LF Brandon Marsh.

Below, we'll break down our Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction and picks for Tuesday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 21

For the second game of the series, it will be Dodgers SP Justin Wrobleski (4.25 xFIP across 100.1 IP) and Phillies SP Zack Wheeler (2.83 xFIP across 93.0 IP) facing each other on the bump.

Wrobleski continues to defy his advanced metrics, with there being a decent gap between his ERA (2.69) and xERA (4.14), per Baseball Savant. Plus, Wrobleski is in the 20th percentile in xBA (.264) and the 20th percentile in strikeout rate (18.3%).

Although Wheeler had a late start to the season upon recovering from an injury, his Savant page matches the red on his Phillies uniform. Wheeler resides in the 95th percentile in xERA (2.65), 89th percentile in xBA (.201), and 95th percentile in strikeout rate (30.4%).

Despite not having as many innings under his belt as other pitchers, Wheeler possesses the third-lowest payout to win the NL Cy Young award (6.25x) on PrizePicks Team Picks. Fellow Philly SP Cristopher Sanchez has the second-lowest payout (5.88x).

Across the last 30 days, the Dodgers have posted the 11th-best wRC+ (105), 11th-best wOBA (.325), and sixth-worst ISO (.147), per FanGraphs. Even though the Phillies racked up 10 runs on Monday, they’ve been a middling offense in the last 30 days, logging the 15th-best wRC+ (102), 12th-best wOBA (.325), and 10th-best ISO (.177).

At the moment, Los Angeles has the lowest payout to win the World Series (2.7x), and Philadelphia has the sixth-lowest payout (10x) in the same market.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 21

The Phillies enter Tuesday’s game as a home favorite against the Dodgers, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Dodgers vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (2.43x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Dodgers 2.04x | Phillies 1.72x

Make your Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Dodgers vs. Phillies Prediction on Winner – 7/21/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction on the winner for Tuesday, July 21.

• Wheeler has earned a 10-1 record in his first 15 starts this season. The Phillies have gone a combined 13-2 in those outings.
• Additionally, Wheeler has allowed 1 or fewer ER in nine of his 15 starts this year.
• At home, Philadelphia has the 10th-best wRC+ (107), sixth-best wOBA (.334), and second-best ISO (.194).
• The Phillies have the ninth-highest win rate (62.8%) when playing as a home favorite in 2026, per TeamRankings.
• Wrobleski ranks in the 48th percentile in barrel rate (7.6%), 21st percentile in hard-hit rate (42.9%), and 42nd percentile in groundball rate (40.9%).
• In the last month, the Dodgers’ bullpen has tallied the ninth-worst xFIP (4.47), 10th-worst HR/FB rate (15.0%), and ninth-worst HR/9 (1.43).
• Alvarez has registered a 3.09 xFIP, 27.5% strikeout rate, and 0.00 HR/9 in his road starts compared to a 3.40 xFIP, 23.5% strikeout rate, and 0.59 HR/9 at home.

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Dodgers vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/21/26

Here are the top Dodgers vs. Phillies picks to target on Tuesday, July 21. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Kyle Schwarber and Teoscar Hernández

Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber vs. Dodgers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Schwarber has crushed lefties to the tune of a 167 wRC+, .421 wOBA, and .312 ISO this season.
• Since the start of June, he's accrued a 144 wRC+, .386 wOBA, and .228 ISO.
• When playing at Citizens Bank Park, Schwarber has a 170 wRC+, .427 wOBA, and .386 ISO.
• Wrobleski has posted a 1.17 WHIP and 1.57 HR/9 against lefties compared to a 0.97 WHIP and 0.47 HR/9 against righties.

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Dodgers LF Teoscar Hernández vs. Phillies: 3.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Hernández is registering just an 89 wRC+, .302 wOBA, .142 ISO, and 29.5% strikeout rate when facing right-handed hurlers.
• On top of that, Hernández has failed to record a hit in five of his last eight appearances.
• Against right-handed hitters, Wheeler is posting a 2.15 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, and 32.6% K-rate.
• Wheeler is notching a 2.86 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, and 31.2% strikeout rate when pitching at home.

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The Phillies were able to come away with a win over the Dodgers on Monday with Sanchez on the mound. Can Philly provide some run support and hand Wheeler another win on the bump for the second game of the series?

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Dodgers vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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