Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott Prediction, Pick for UFC 332

Could a changing of the guard be upon us in the UFC men’s 135-pound division at UFC 332 in the co-main event?

Former UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo has dropped four of his last five fights, but they’re all top-five, high-level challengers. If Reno’s Payton Talbott can go out and make a statement against Figueiredo, he’s next up in the division. But “Deus de Guerra” has never been one to go into the night quietly.

The Figueiredo vs. Talbott co-main event of the UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang main card on Saturday is expected to start around 9:45 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott Prediction, Preview for UFC 332 Co-Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Deiveson Figueiredo: 5.26x

• By KO/TKO: 10.00x
• By Submission: 11.11x
• By Decision: 14.28x

Payton Talbott: 1.14x

• By KO/TKO: 2.17x
• By Submission: 7.69x
• By Decision: 2.56x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

I don’t know if UFC fans — including myself — truly put themselves into Deiveson Figueiredo’s shoes in a spot like this.

At 38 years old, his career is effectively on the line. Long gone are the days where he can safely cut to flyweight (125 pounds), so he’s been resigned to this bantamweight division against larger fighters. Even so, he’s 4-4 in it, and all four losses have come to current top-five contenders. A better “gatekeeper” for this division’s title picture doesn’t exist.

Early in Figueiredo’s career, he was a physical force in that smaller weight class. If someone asked me to pinpoint where it’s gone wrong for the Brazilian in the 135-pound title picture, it’s just a lack of danger. At bantamweight, he’s dropped just one opponent (Chito Vera) and managed just two total submission attempts.

At 5’5” and ceding reach to everyone, it’s a tough way to make a living — even with the skill to take current champion Petr Yan a full 25 minutes:

The road does not get easier this weekend. Payton Talbott proved that in a stunningly dominant display against this division’s former champ, Henry Cejudo, last December. Talbott’s +74 striking differential wasn’t a surprise with the length and volume he carries, but he took down the former Olympic gold medal wrestler three times, and Cejudo only got one back. I had to clean my glasses to make sure I was seeing things correctly.

Less than 24 months ago, the great Raoni Barcelos exposed what was a takedown defense problem in the developing prospect, but Talbott’s stuffed 18 of 22 takedowns from Cejudo and Felipe Lima since that fight. I, truthfully, don’t know where you beat him until we see some of these higher-level fighters try.

Talbott is a heavy favorite on the basis of youth, length, athleticism, and momentum, but the one thing he hasn’t done is fight inside bantamweight’s current top five. We’ll see if “Deus de Guerra” can shut the gate.

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How Deiveson Figueiredo Wins vs. Payton Talbott at UFC 332

It’s fitting that Deiveson Figueiredo, in a career built on fight-changing moments at flyweight, really just needs one here, and that’s all he’s got.

Whether that’s a mammoth punch or a tight choke, he needs to capitalize on any Talbott mistake — and quickly before his power fades.

Even through this arduous run in his new weight class, Figgy’s career-long knockdown rate (1.67 KD%) and submission attempts per 15 minutes (1.2) remain above average as we sit here today. That sort of hints at what a monster he was previously, and it’s made an occasional appearance in his new division.

Figueiredo has landed single-digit significant strikes in three of his last four fights. He knows it’s less about winning minutes at this stage than moments. We’ll see if he can find one.

How Payton Talbott Wins vs. Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 332

Payton Talbott has so many intrinsic advantages in this fight that — unlike Figueiredo — he just has to avoid the big mistake.

For as great as Cejudo and Felipe Lima are, they combine for one UFC win via submission and 0.6 attempts per 15 minutes. I mentioned that the black belt, Figueiredo, doubles up that average. All that momentum could stall if he sticks his neck out in the wrong spot.

However, Talbott has more pressure in this fight than just winning. He’s got to deliver the highlight.

The former champ has never been KO’d aside from two injury stoppages, and he immediately arrives into the title picture by making it happen. I think the key is non-stop volume: at 6.62 significant strikes landed per minute historically, he might leave the referee no choice but to wave it off.

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Figueiredo vs. Talbott Prediction for UFC 332 Co-Main Event

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory. Below are the model results for Figueiredo vs. Talbott.

Figueiredo vs. Talbott Model Prediction, Results

Since Figgy’s weight shift, I’ve greatly struggled to model him appropriately because he turned from a dangerous finisher to a point fighter. The model’s hefty verdict here is the first time I’ve seen it turn its back on him.

Contributing factors include advanced age, recent momentum, and mounting attrition. Song Yadong’s tap of the former champ was extremely quick. He didn’t make it eight minutes with Cory Sandhagen in a result that has aged like milk. The model senses the beginning of the end.

Now, I’m still behind projections because Talbott’s profile is far from perfect.

While he’s shored up his takedown defense, a 46% striking defense isn’t good enough to comfortably push him over an 80% chance to win. A lot of that vulnerability is low kicks, which Figueiredo might attack with moderate volume.

The Brazilian’s legendary durability makes a decision (32.0%) the most likely individual outcome, but a win via stoppage (42.1%) is even more likely when you combine knockout and submission. I think it’s a difficult fight to predict the method-of-victory markets, especially if Talbott is really playing with his food.

Figueiredo vs. Talbott Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Payton Talbott – 53.5 Significant Strikes

Setting median projections for fighters like Talbott can be unnerving. A projection that looks like this could be in jeopardy from just a handful of minutes at distance while Figueiredo hangs in there.

“Hanging in there” is quite possible. Talbott’s 0.59 KD% is low, and he’s still south of a takedown per 15 minutes in terms of career averages. His three against Cejudo marked a career high.

If you have any fear that Talbott finds a late finish to spoil this “More”, it’s warranted. But, in less than six minutes during a (T)KO of Cameron Saaiman, he posted 79 significant strikes. These sig strikes can be racked up in a blur.

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Make Your Figueiredo vs. Talbott Picks on PrizePicks

UFC 332’s co-main event between Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott goes down this Saturday from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for every fight on the card!

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.