Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Pick for US Open – Sunday, September 6

In one of Sunday’s most intriguing round-of-16 matchups, 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev will go up against two-time semifinalist Frances Tiafoe.

Both players are playing at a high level, but Medvedev has dominated the head-to-head against the American. Can Tiafoe finally turn the tables on the Russian?  

Below, we’ll break down our Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 3:00 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Sunday’s match now!

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Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Round of 16

Below are the payouts for who will win Sunday’s Medvedev vs. Tiafoe match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 35 states.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction for US Open – Sunday, September 6

Match Winner Payouts: Medvedev 1.61x | Tiafoe 2.22x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Medvedev 31-15 | Tiafoe 37-16
Head-to-Head Record: Medvedev leads 6-1
Scheduled Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC/ESPN

Daniil Medvedev came into the US Open having lost four of five matches and was so out of sorts that he joked that he should consider a career change to pickleball. Add in recent struggles in Grand Slams — he had advanced past the third round only once in the past seven majors — and a deep run in New York was looking incredibly unlikely.

Well, despite all that, here’s Medvedev in the round of 16 without even dropping a set. 

While Medvedev hasn’t exactly faced a murderers’ row of opponents, he’s efficiently taken care of business against qualifier Hugo Gaston, wild card Sebastian Gorzny, and an inconsistent Arthur Rinderknech. The Russian star has been nearly untouchable on serve, facing just four break points and saving three of them.

Frances Tiafoe got off to a rocky start at this US Open, going the distance against fellow American Martin Damm in the first round. However, he’s now won his last two matches in straight sets, defeating qualifier Rei Sakamoto 6-3, 7-6(2), 7-5 before earning a more comfortable 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 win over Valentin Vacherot.

The US Open has been far and away Tiafoe’s most successful major, and he’s often thrived on the big stage in front of the rowdy New York crowd. He's now reached at least the round of 16 in six of the last seven years and went all the way to the semis in 2022 and 2024.

However, Medvedev probably isn’t the opponent he wanted to see across the net on Sunday. The Russian is 6-1 against Tiafoe, and five of the six wins have been in straight sets.

Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings rate these two similarly on hard courts, with Medvedev ranking 11th and Tiafoe ranking 14th. The model projects Medvedev winning 56.0% of the time.

But the lopsided head-to-head is difficult to ignore, and Tiafoe candidly admitted a few days ago that he may not be at his best physically right now. Particularly with Medvedev suddenly looking rejuvenated and playing with confidence, he could be in a good position to advance.

Make your Medvedev vs. Tiafoe US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Daniil Medvedev vs. Frances Tiafoe for the US Open on Sunday

Medvedev Pick – 23 Fantasy Score

Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.

In his first three matches, Medvedev has scored 30.5, 34.5, and 27 fantasy points. 

In their head-to-head, Medvedev has won 16 out of 18 sets against Tiafoe. They faced each other at the 2020 US Open, and the Russian won 6-4, 6-1, 6-0.

Medvedev has a solid 10.9% ace rate on hard courts in 2026. He should be able to earn some free points against Tiafoe, who’s been aced 13.5% of the time on the surface. Medvedev has logged 10+ aces in each of his first three matches.

The Russian is also an elite returner. On hard courts this season, he's won 41.1% of his return points, the best mark among the top 50 players. Per Tennis Data Innovations, his shot quality on return is the third-best on the ATP Tour over the past 52 weeks behind Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

Pick Medvedev to win + fantasy score on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Daniil Medvedev and Frances Tiafoe have raised their level at this US Open, but history sides with the Russian. Which player will advance to the quarterfinals?

Don’t wait until Sunday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

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