Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction, MLB Picks for Friday, August 14

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are slated to start a three-game series on Friday, August 14, at 2:20 p.m. ET on Apple TV. Before the first pitch is thrown, the Cubs are heavily favored at home with a 1.49x payout to secure a victory on PrizePicks Team Picks.

As NL Central rivals, St. Louis and Chicago have split the season series 5-5, though the Cubs have won four of the last five meetings in 2026.

Below, we'll break down our Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, August 14

To get the series underway, Cardinals SP Matthew Liberatore (4.23 xFIP across 113.2 IP) and Cubs SP Clay Holmes (3.72 xFIP across 56.2 IP) will square off on the mound.

Along with having a 5.15 ERA, Liberatore ranks in the 17th percentile in xERA (5.02) and 15th percentile in xBA (.269), per Baseball Savant. Additionally, Liberatore resides in the 29th percentile or worse in barrel rate (8.8%), hard-hit rate (42.1%), and ground ball rate (38.3%).

Although Holmes has missed time due to injury, luck appears to have been on his side, as his 2.86 ERA is much better than his 4.23 xERA. Holmes made his debut for the Cubs on August 8 against the Kansas City Royals, and he allowed 6 hits and 4 ER while striking out just 1 batter in 4.0 IP.

The last month of action has been rough for the Cardinals at the plate, as they've posted the sixth-worst wRC+ (84), sixth-worst wOBA (.291), as well as the second-worst ISO (.102), per FanGraphs. It’s been a different story for the Cubs, who have the third-best wRC+ (120), third-best wOBA (.346), and fifth-best ISO (.177) in the last 30 days.

Entering Friday’s matchup, a prediction of “Yes” on St. Louis to make the playoffs sits at just a 7.69x, while “No” holds a 1.03x payout. Meanwhile, Chicago has the second-lowest payout to win the NL Central (2.77x) on PrizePicks Team Picks, trailing only the Milwaukee Brewers (1.42x).

Cardinals vs. Cubs Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, August 14

The Cubs enter Friday’s game as home favorites against the Cardinals, returning a 1.49x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Cardinals vs. Cubs game on PrizePicks.

Make your Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction on Over/Under – 8/14/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction on the total runs for Friday, August 14.

• Liberatore has given up 3 ER or more in 11 of his last 15 starts.
• After permitting 3 hits and 0 ER in 5.1 IP against the Cubs on May 31, Liberatore has coughed up at least 4 hits and 3 ER in each of his last two outings against Chicago.
• The Cubs boast the best wRC+ (119), fourth-best wOBA (.341), and ninth-best ISO (.173) at home.
• On top of that, Chicago owns the best wRC+ (125), best wOBA (.353), and third-best ISO (.178) against left-handed pitching.
• Even though Holmes is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a 98th-percentile groundball rate (57.6%), he’s also in the 24th percentile in xBA (.259) and the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate (44.8%).
• On the road, the Cardinals have the 10th-best wRC+ (101) and fifth-best wOBA (.321).
• There have been at least 10 total runs scored in three of the last five meetings between St. Louis and Chicago.

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Cardinals vs. Cubs Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 8/14/26

Here are the top Cardinals vs. Cubs picks to target on Friday, August 14. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Alex Bregman and Alec Burleson.

Cubs 3B Alex Bregman vs. Cardinals: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Against left-handed pitching, Bregman has a 125 wRC+, .354 wOBA, and just a 14.5% strikeout rate.
• Since the start of August, Bregman has an impressive 186 wRC+, .446 wOBA, and .354 ISO.
• Bregman produced the first 3-HR performance of his career on Wednesday, and he’s totaled 5 HRs and 12 RBI in his last seven games.
• Liberatore is recording a 4.37 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, and 1.33 HR/9 when facing righties.

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Cardinals 1B Alec Burleson vs. Cubs: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Burleson is logging a formidable 168 wRC+, .417 wOBA, and .241 ISO against righties.
• Plus, Burleson is on a four-game hitting streak and has combined for 2 multi-hit outings, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 2 doubles, and 4 runs scored during that span.
• Holmes has allowed at least 5 hits and multiple ER in three straight starts, including in his debut for the Cubs.
• When facing lefties, Holmes has a 1.25 WHIP and just a 17.9% strikeout rate compared to a 1.04 WHIP and 22.6% strikeout rate against righties.

Add Alec Burleson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Cardinals vs. Cubs Picks on PrizePicks

The Cardinals and Cubs will meet for the 11th time this season on Friday, and time is ticking for both teams to improve their positions in the playoff race. With Liberatore and Holmes on the bump for Friday’s contest, runs could be scored at a decent rate at Wrigley Field.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Cardinals vs. Cubs picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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