Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, July 12

The Milwaukee Brewers will be wrapping up a four-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, July 12, at 12:15 p.m. ET, live on Peacock. With SP Paul Skenes taking the mound for the last time before the MLB All-Star break, Pittsburgh is favored with a 1.78x payout to secure a win on PrizePicks Team Picks.

On Saturday, the Brewers and Pirates faced off in a doubleheader after the series opener was postponed. Milwaukee lost both games by 1 run, and Pittsburgh has gone 4-1 in the first five meetings between these NL Central foes.

Below, we'll break down our Brewers vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, July 12

For the final game of the series on Sunday, it will be Brewers SP Robert Gasser (4.62 xFIP across 43.1 IP) and Pirates SP Paul Skenes (3.25 xFIP across 103.0 IP) squaring off on the mound.

Gasser will be starting for the Brewers after the team announced hard-throwing SP Jacob Misiorowski won’t start on Sunday and won’t be available in the All-Star Game. Over his first eight starts this season, Gasser is in the 72nd percentile in xERA (3.44) and 81st percentile in xBA (.214), per Baseball Savant. 

Skenes is putting together another impressive campaign as the Pirates’ ace, though he’s given up a combined 19 ER over his last six starts. That being said, he’s residing in the 93rd percentile in xERA (2.74), 88th percentile in xBA (.204), and 91st percentile in both strikeout rate (29.3%) and walk rate (5.5%).

With Pittsburgh carrying a 49-47 record into Sunday’s contest, they have a 1.04x payout to earn 75+ wins and a 1.4x payout to have 80+ wins this season, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Across the last 30 days, the Pirates boast the fourth-best wRC+ (124), third-best wOBA (.357), and seventh-best ISO (.187), per FanGraphs. Meanwhile, the Brewers have the 12th-best wRC+ (107), 12th-best wOBA (.328), and 11th-worst ISO (.162) in the same 30-day span.

In the two games between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh on Saturday, RF Esmerlyn Valdez smacked 3 HRs for 8 RBIs.

Brewers vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, July 12

The Pirates enter Sunday’s game as a home favorite against the Brewers, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Brewers vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Pirates -1.5 (2.63x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Brewers 1.96x | Pirates 1.78x

Make your Brewers vs. Pirates prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction on Over/Under – 7/12/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Brewers vs. Pirates prediction on the total runs scored for Sunday, July 12.

• There have been fewer than 8 total runs scored in three of the first five meetings between the Brewers and Pirates this season.
• Despite Skenes’ recent woes, he tossed a 7-inning shutout with 7 Ks in his lone start against Milwaukee this year on April 24.
• The Brewers have the second-lowest hit rate on the Over against divisional opponents (37.0%), per Team Rankings.
• Gasser has seemingly gotten a bit unlucky, evidenced by his xERA (3.43) sitting a decent bit lower than his actual ERA (4.15).
• The Pirates have struggled against lefties to the tune of the 7th-worst wRC (89), 8th-worst wOBA (.305), 10th-worst ISO (.143), and 2nd-highest strikeout rate (26.0%) in that split.
• Comparatively, Pittsburgh owns the 2nd-best wRC+ (117), best wOBA (.347), and 11th-best ISO (.169) when facing right-handed pitchers.

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Brewers vs. Pirates Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/12/26

Here are the top Brewers vs. Pirates picks to target on Sunday, July 12. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Sal Frelick and Paul Skenes.

Brewers RF Sal Frelick vs. Pirates: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Frelick is producing just a 93 wRC+, .307 wOBA, .278 BABIP, and .103 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2026.
• Across his last 10 appearances, Frelick has gotten at least 1 hit in only 7 of those games.
• Moreover, Frelick is in danger of being benched if a left-handed reliever enters the game for the Pirates.
• Against lefties at home this year, Skenes possesses a 3.22 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .261 BABIP, and 30.7% strikeout rate.

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Pirates SP Paul Skenes vs. Brewers: 1.5 Walks Allowed

• After issuing 2 or more walks in 3 of his first 11 starts this season, Skenes has allowed at least 2 walks in 5 of his last 8 starts.
• When facing right-handed hurlers, Milwaukee has tallied the fourth-highest walk rate (10.5%).
• The Brewers have also notched the seventh-highest walk rate (9.8%) in the last 14 days.
• Milwaukee totaled 11 walks in the two games against Pittsburgh on Saturday.

Add Paul Skenes to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Brewers vs. Pirates Picks on PrizePicks

Baseball fans have been deprived of a much-anticipated pitching matchup between Jacob Misiorowski and Paul Skenes on Sunday. Even with Misiorowski not on the mound for the Brewers, runs could come at a premium in this showdown against the Pirates.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Brewers vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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