Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, MLB Picks for NLDS Game 3 – Tuesday, October 6

The Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres square off in a pivotal Game 3 of the National League Division Series on Tuesday, October 6, at 9:30 p.m. ET on FS1. Ahead of the first pitch, the Padres are a home favorite with a 1.69x payout to secure a victory on PrizePicks.

Milwaukee fans could bring the brooms out on Tuesday with a 2-0 lead to begin the NLDS series. LF Jackson Chourio delivered an impressive walk-off single to win 4-3 in Game 2, despite the Padres deploying CP Mason Miller to shut the door in the bottom of the ninth inning with a 2-run lead.

Below, we'll break down our Brewers vs. Padres prediction and picks for NLDS Game 3, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for NLDS Game 3 – Tuesday, October 6

For the third game of the series, Brewers SP Dustin May (3.97 xFIP across 145.2 IP) and Padres SP Nick Pivetta (3.46 xFIP across 34.2 IP) will get the nod for their respective teams.

While May improved from a 4.96 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2025 to a 4.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 2026, he ranked in the 35th percentile or worse in xERA (4.45) and xBA (.251) this season, per Baseball Savant.

Both SP Jacob Misiorowski and SP Logan Henderson have been pulled before tossing 90 pitches and reaching the sixth inning in the first two games of the series, so manager Pat Murphy is willing to go to his bullpen early.

Pivetta is making just his sixth start since returning from an early-season injury in September. In Game 2 of the Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs, Pivetta made the start and allowed just 1 ER while racking up 4 Ks in 3.1 IP.

The Brewers have shown up at the plate late in games in this series, with a solo HR by C William Contreras being the difference in Game 1's 3-2 victory.

With Milwaukee rolling and potentially achieving the three-game sweep over San Diego on Tuesday, it now possesses the second-lowest payout (3.44x) to win the World Series on PrizePicks. Meanwhile, the Padres have the second-highest payout (22.22x) to win it all with their backs against the wall.

Brewers vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, October 6

The Padres enter Tuesday’s game as a home favorite against the Brewers, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright on PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Brewers vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.

Make your Brewers vs. Padres prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks now!

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Brewers vs. Padres Prediction on Over/Under for NLDS Game 3 – 10/6/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Brewers vs. Padres prediction on the over/under for Tuesday, October 6.

• While May has given up multiple ER in five of his last six starts, he’ll give way to a reliable Milwaukee bullpen when he exits the game.
• The Brewers’ relievers have tallied the fifth-best xFIP (3.92), eighth-best BABIP (.275), and second-best HR/9 (0.89) in 2026, per FanGraphs.
• Pivetta has permitted a combined 4 ER across his five starts and 22.0 IP since returning from injury, and he’ll also hand the ball to a formidable bullpen.
• The Padres’ relievers logged the second-best xFIP (3.80) and fifth-best HR/9 (0.92) during the regular season.
• Across the eight meetings between Milwaukee and San Diego this season (including the playoffs), there have been fewer than 8 total runs scored in five of them.
• During the 2026 campaign, the Padres had the 12th-worst record to the over (38-41-4) at home, via TeamRankings
• At the same time, the Brewers had the 10th-worst record to the over (37-39-2) as the away team this year.

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Brewers vs. Padres Picks, Player Stats for NLDS on PrizePicks: 10/6/26

Here are the top Brewers vs. Padres picks to target on Tuesday, October 6. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Jackson Chourio and Xander Bogaerts.

Brewers LF Jackson Chourio vs. Padres: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

• Chourio has a hit and 2 RBIs in each of the first two games of this series, including a homer in Game 1.
• Additionally, Chourio is on a seven-game hit streak, totaling 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, 1 SB, and 7 runs scored during that span.
• Since the start of September, Chourio is logging a 154 wRC+, .398 wOBA, and .194 ISO.
• Pivetta has reverse splits in his small sample this season, registering a 4.12 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, and 1.29 HR/9 against righties, compared to a 3.02 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, and 0.00 HR/9 vs. lefties.

Add Jackson Chourio to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Padres SS Xander Bogaerts vs. Brewers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• May has posted a 3.63 xFIP and 1.05 WHIP when facing right-handed hitters, compared to a 4.21 xFIP and 1.51 WHIP against left-handed hitters.
• When facing right-handed pitching this year, Bogaerts has just a 99 wRC+, .310 wOBA, and .131 ISO.
• Bogaerts also has a 79 wRC+, .275 wOBA, and .093 ISO when playing at home in 2026.
• Even with Bogaerts having a hit in five of his last six games, he went hitless with 2 Ks in Game 2 vs. the Brewers.

Add Xander Bogaerts to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Brewers vs. Padres Picks on PrizePicks

The Brewers have seized control of their NLDS series against the Padres, jumping out to a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five format. Even with May and Pivetta not being the most trustworthy starters, the bullpens could limit runs in Game 3.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Brewers vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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