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Every team in MLB is playing on Tuesday, September 22, beginning with a doubleheader between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. With every team taking the field, there are endless opportunities for players to hit dingers.
Both DH Kyle Schwarber and CF Pete Crow-Armstrong enter Tuesday’s slate with a league-high 45 HRs. Will either of them take the lead in the homer department with the season winding down?
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the best MLB home run picks today, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick on PrizePicks.
Make your MLB home run picks for Tuesday, September 22, on PrizePicks now.
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Best Home Run Picks Today – Tuesday, September 22
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind blowing? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Diamondbacks 3B Nolan Arenado
- Braves RF Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
- Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte
- Athletics C Shea Langeliers
- Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET
Brewers Starting Pitcher: Dustin May (29 GS, 7-9, 3.94 xFIP, 44.2% hard-hit, 36.3 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 62 degrees, cloudy, and 10 MPH winds blowing slightly in from RF
- Against right-handed pitching this season, Schwarber has a 123 wRC+, .358 wOBA, and .286 ISO.
- At home in 2026, Schwarber owns a 152 wRC+, .406 wOBA, and .352 ISO.
- Schwarber boasts a 133 wRC+, .372 wOBA, and .304 ISO against lefties in 2026.
- On the road this year, May has a 1.48 WHIP and 1.48 HR/9.
- May has given up at least 1 HR in five of his last eight starts.
- Since the start of September, May has a 1.25 WHIP and 1.50 HR/9.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Braves RF Ronald Acuna Jr.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET
Reds Starting Pitcher: Brandon Williamson (7 GS, 4-4, 5.85 xFIP, 41.8% hard-hit, 44.4 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 77 degrees, cloudy and 40% chance of rain, and 3 MPH winds blowing in from LF
- Acuna is producing a 112 wRC+, .338 wOBA, and .190 ISO against lefties this year.
- When playing at home this season, Acuna is tallying a 122 wRC+, .352 wOBA, and .192 ISO.
- Since the start of September, Acuna is heating up with a 191 wRC+, .455 wOBA, and .356 ISO.
- Over his last eight games, Acuna has hit 4 HRs.
- Williamson is posting a 6.37 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, and 1.47 HR/9 against right-handed hitters.
- Plus, Williamson has allowed at least 1 HR in four straight outings.
Add Ronald Acuna Jr. to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Diamondbacks 3B Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland (24 GS, 4-10, 4.25 xFIP, 43.1% hard-hit, 39.0 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 74 degrees, cloudy, and 6 MPH winds blowing out to CF
- Arenado boasts a 136 wRC+, .373 wOBA, and .279 ISO against lefties in 2026.
- In September, Arenado is logging a 183 wRC+, .445 wOBA, and .333 ISO.
- Across his last 10 games, Arenado has launched 5 long balls.
- Freeland is recording a 4.46 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, and 2.36 HR/9 against right-handed sluggers.
- When pitching at Coors Field this season, Freeland has a 4.21 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and 1.94 HR/9.
- Freeland has surrendered multiple HRs in back-to-back starts.
Add Nolan Arenado to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
There are plenty of power hitters in solid matchups on Tuesday, including Schwarber, Arenado, and Acuna. Will Schwarber seize the sole lead in the HR category against May and the Brewers?
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.
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