Three college football games are on tap for Friday, October 2, beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET with Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech, paired with Liberty vs. Delaware (7:00 p.m. ET) and Penn State vs. Northwestern (8:00 p.m. ET).
Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are each 4-0 and look to take one step closer to competing in the ACC. Liberty has won three consecutive games, while Delaware is 1-2 over its last three with losses vs. Vanderbilt (35-26) and Virginia (42-3). Penn State and Northwestern are hoping to avoid 0-2 starts in Big Ten play following losses last week.
Below, we’ll highlight our best Friday college football picks for winners, spreads, and over/unders via PrizePicks.
Make your college football predictions on PrizePicks now!
{{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Friday College Football Picks for Winners, Spreads, Over/Unders
This week’s Friday college football picks are headlined by Pittsburgh (4-0) vs. Virginia Tech (4-0) on ESPN, followed by Penn State (3-1) vs. Northwestern (2-1) televised by FOX.
Following a narrow 12-7 win over UCF as 7.5-point favorites on September 12, Pittsburgh followed that with back-to-back covers in wins over Syracuse and Bucknell. In head coach James Franklin’s first season, Virginia Tech comes off consecutive wins over Power Four opponents in Maryland and Boston College.
Northwestern suffered its first loss of the season last week, but the Wildcats impressed in a 29-23 final as 20.5-point underdogs on the road vs. #6 Indiana. Meanwhile, Penn State began Big Ten play with a 24-20 defeat as 9.5-point favorites vs. Wisconsin.
Let’s take a closer look at each matchup, featuring winner payouts, spreads, and over/unders via PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech Prediction on Winner – Friday, October 2
Time, How to Watch: 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Virginia Tech enters tonight as a 2.5-point favorite on the spread, per PrizePicks. Lane Stadium at night provides a notable home advantage, and it begins before kickoff with the Hokies entering the field to Metallica’s “Enter Sandman.”
According to Game on Paper, Pittsburgh could have a significant advantage in efficiency thanks to +0.22 adjusted EPA per play (83rd percentile) compared to Virginia Tech’s +0.04 (59th percentile). The Panthers have totaled 32.7 PPG (75th percentile) while allowing only 11.5 PPG (96th percentile), and the Hokies average 33.3 PPG (78th percentile) and yield 20.3 PPG (72nd percentile).
While each offense’s output is similar, Pittsburgh is producing 6.3 yards per play (78th percentile) compared to Virginia Tech’s 5.0 (34th percentile). In fact, the Hokies’ efficiency leaves a lot to be desired, including 3.7 yards per rushing attempt (37th percentile) and 6.7 yards per passing attempt (36th percentile).
Virginia Tech RB Jeffrey Overton Jr., who is projected for 77.5 rush yards on PrizePicks tonight, stands out as the unit’s biggest threat. Overton is logging 6.8 yards per carry and comes off a monster performance with 25 attempts for 209 rushing yards (8.4 YPC) and 1 TD in Tech’s 21-14 win over Boston College. Furthermore, his 4.95 yards after contact per carry is the fifth-highest total among ACC halfbacks with at least 25 rushing attempts, per Pro Football Focus.
The Hokies’ offensive line is beat up entering this game, with OT Justin Terry out and OG Montavious Cunningham probable, per the ACC injury report. That causes concern against a Pittsburgh defense that allows only 2.2 yards per carry (95th percentile) and a 32.4% rush success rate (96th percentile).
According to Fourth and Short, the Panthers produce a 32.0% stuff rate on defense (99th percentile), and the Hokies’ offensive line allows a 20.0% stuff rate (25th percentile) with only 3.0 line yards (37th percentile) — which is measured by average yards per rush gained at the line of scrimmage. In summary, this rushing attack is reliant on Overton’s ability to generate yards after contact, and that could falter against a strong defense.
Virginia Tech’s defense is also elite against the run with a 40.3% stuff rate that leads the nation by over 8.0%. This could come down to who is finding more success through the air, and Pittsburgh totals 8.5 yards per passing attempt (77th percentile) with a 52.5% pass success rate (84th percentile). The Hokies pale in comparison with a 48.0% pass success rate (64th percentile) and 0.21 EPA/pass (64th percentile).
Lock in your Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech prediction on PrizePicks!
Penn State vs. Northwestern Prediction on Spread – Friday, October 2
Time, How to Watch: 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX
According to TeamRankings, Penn State totals 28.2 seconds per play (24th percentile) compared to Northwestern’s 27.6 (34th percentile). Those slow tempos are contributing to 67.5 plays per game for both teams, which is in the 48th percentile for the most plays per contest.
The potential pace of this game is a big factor in the 46.5 over/under on PrizePicks. However, each unit is efficient, featuring PSU’s +0.28 adjusted EPA per play (88th percentile) and Northwestern’s +0.23 (85th percentile).
The Wildcats’ passing attack lit Indiana up last week, totaling 293 passing yards and 9.8 yards per passing attempt. Northwestern QB Aidan Chiles was terrific with a 9.1% big-time throw rate and 84.6% adjusted completion percentage while regularly pushing it downfield with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 11.8 yards.
TE Luke Dehnicke announced himself to the country, racking up 7 receptions for 140 receiving yards. Following a breakout performance, Dehnicke is doubtful for tonight. That’s likely impacting Chiles’ 212.5 projected pass yards on Friday, via PrizePicks.
Penn State’s top CB Daryus Dixson is also questionable, but Northwestern’s injuries are simply drawing more concern with CB Josh Fussell out, CB Braden Turner doubtful, and S Damon Walters questionable. This secondary just gave up 6.9 yards per passing attempt last week and now allows a 42.6% pass success rate (63rd percentile).
Backed by 0.30 EPA per passing attempt (82nd percentile) and a 49.1% pass success rate (70th percentile), the Nittany Lions have the tools to take advantage. Further, the Wildcats allow 6.2 yards per rushing attempt (third percentile) and a 49.3% rush success rate (20th percentile). Penn State RB James Peoples totals 5.4 yards per rushing attempt, while the offensive line gives up a low 13.6% stuff rate (75th percentile).
Northwestern posts 0.43 EPA per passing attempt (91st percentile) compared to 0.00 on the ground (41st percentile). The Nittany Lions may have the answer thanks to -0.34 EPA per passing attempt allowed and 4.5 yards per passing attempt allowed, each ranking first nationally.
Adding to Penn State’s ability to slow Chiles & Co., it has a 19.5% havoc rate (82nd percentile) on defense, and Northwestern allows an 8.77% sack rate (18th percentile). Chiles could be in trouble with his best target potentially absent against a strong secondary.
Predict the Penn State vs. Northwestern spread on PrizePicks.
{{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make Friday College Football Picks on PrizePicks
Will Pittsburgh and Penn State each find success on the road tonight? The Panthers appear to carry better efficiency with more balance compared to Virginia Tech, while the Nittany Lions look to take advantage of Northwestern’s injury woes.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make college football picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
