Four top-25 teams are in action on Friday, September 18, including #5 Miami on the road vs. Wake Forest, #22 Houston vs. #13 Texas Tech in a critical Big 12 battle, and #21 Oregon hosting Portland State.
Miami has performed like one of the nation’s best with an average margin of +54.5 points per game through two matchups. Houston vs. Texas Tech is one of three top-25 matchups in Week 3, and Oregon hopes to bounce back from last week’s 39-31 loss as 23.5-point favorites vs. Oklahoma State.
For tonight’s three-game slate, we’ll provide our best Friday college football picks for winners, spreads, and over/unders via PrizePicks.
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Friday College Football Picks for Winners, Spreads, Over/Unders
This week’s Friday college football picks are headlined by #5 Miami vs. Wake Forest and #22 Houston vs. #13 Texas Tech.
According to PrizePicks, Miami is a 20.5-point favorite vs. Wake Forest. As 24.5-point favorites on the road vs. Stanford in Week 1, the Hurricanes rolled to a 45-6 win.
Despite an 0-2 start against the spread (ATS), Texas Tech is a 7.5-point favorite at home vs. Houston. The Red Raiders have battled some inconsistencies after replacing key starters from the 2025 season.
Let’s take a closer look at each matchup, featuring winner payouts, spreads, and over/unders via PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
#5 Miami vs. Wake Forest Prediction on Spread – Friday, September 18
Time, How to Watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
After falling to Indiana in the national championship game last season, Miami hasn’t skipped a beat, and that’s with the Canes returning only 49% of their production (78th), per ESPN.
Last week, Miami beat up on an FCS school in Florida A&M, marching to a dominant 77-7 win as 60.5-point favorites. Week 1’s 45-6 dub as 24.5-point favorites on the road vs. Stanford was the game that truly opened eyes across college football.
After throwing for 401 passing yards, 13.4 yards per passing attempt, and 5 passing TDs, Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah immediately became the Heisman Trophy favorite following the Stanford game. Entering Week 3, Mensah remains the favorite with a 5x payout to win the award, per PrizePicks.
Ranked fourth in this week’s College Football Power Rankings, the Hurricanes feature a dynamic passing game anchored by superstar WR Malachi Toney, who followed his 234-yard and 3-TD performance from Week 1 with 96 receiving yards and 1 TD vs. Florida A&M.
According to Game On Paper, Miami’s 0.69 EPA per passing attempt sits in the 91st percentile nationally, while its 65.7% pass success rate (88th percentile) isn’t too shabby either.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is 0-2 ATS and comes off a 38-36 win vs. Purdue. In that contest, the Demon Deacons surrendered 455 yards, 329 passing yards, and 7.8 yards per passing attempt. If Wake Forest cannot contain the Boilermakers, good luck defending Mensah and Toney.
Furthermore, the Deacons’ 14.3% havoc rate on defense ranks 97th out of 138 FBS schools, per Fourth and Short. Mensah has mostly enjoyed clean pockets with the Canes giving up only a 4.9% havoc rate (second nationally).
Miami has defensive concerns with starting CBs OJ Frederique Jr. and Xavier Lucas out due to injuries. However, Wake Forest may struggle to stop this Hurricanes offense that’s racked up 45.0 PPG (12th) and 8.2 yards per play (seventh) through two contests.
Lock in your Miami vs. Wake Forest prediction on PrizePicks!
#22 Houston vs. #13 Texas Tech Prediction on Spread – Friday, September 18
Time, How to Watch: 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Houston and Texas Tech each enter tonight’s matchup 2-0, and PrizePicks gives the Red Raiders (2.43x) the shortest payout to win the Big 12 championship, while the Cougars are tied for the fifth-shortest payout (11.11x).
If Houston can pull off the upset, that would certainly shift payouts in the Big 12. The Cougs could have an angle for keeping it close.
First off, Houston is 1-1 ATS while Texas Tech is 0-2. Frankly, the Red Raiders’ defense has looked human, featuring 24 points and 417 passing yards allowed vs. Oregon State last week.
The Cougars’ passing game has tallied 9.8 yards per passing attempt (85th percentile) and a 53.1% pass success rate (75th percentile). QB Conner Weigman attempted only 12 passing attempts last week, but he shined in Week 1 by racking up 305 passing yards and 10.2 yards per passing attempt.
Furthermore, Houston WR Amare Thomas is tracking to be one of the Big 12’s best wideouts, tallying 8 receptions for 133 receiving yards and 1 TD in Week 1. With a low passing volume, Thomas still posted 3 receptions for 29 yards and 1 TD a week ago.
According to Pro Football Focus, Thomas sports a strong 3.38 yards per route run, paired with a mind-boggling 9.2 yards after contact per reception. PrizePicks projects Weigman for 223.5 pass yards and Thomas for 78.5 receiving yards tonight.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech has a 59.0% rush-play rate (72nd percentile) thus far. However, Game On Paper gives the Red Raiders an alarming -0.78 EPA per rushing attempt (131st out of 138 teams).
The Cougars have allowed -0.22 EPA per carry (81st percentile) and 1.0 yards per carry (98th percentile). Additionally, Fourth and Short has Houston allowing only 1.3 line yards per rushing attempt (98th percentile) — which is the average yards per carry allowed at the line of scrimmage.
With the Cougs allowing little push in the run game, that’s trouble for a Texas Tech offensive line that’s generated only 3.1 line yards per carry (47th percentile).
The Red Raiders should get defensive reinforcements tonight as S Brenden Jordan returns from a two-game suspension, and San Diego State transfer EDGE Trey White (knee) is “trending in the right direction” to play.
After replacing all of 2025’s starting defensive line — including the 2026 NFL Draft’s #2 pick EDGE David Bailey — there’s still a lot of uncertainty around this Texas Tech defense.
Predict the Houston vs. Texas Tech spread on PrizePicks.
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Make Friday College Football Picks on PrizePicks
A pair of point spreads stand out for our best Friday college football picks tonight. Miami’s rolling offense has another favorable matchup vs. Wake Forest, while Houston is upset-minded in a crucial Big 12 battle with Texas Tech.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make college football picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
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