Last week's proclaimed “Game of the Year” did not disappoint, with Arch Manning and Texas rallying to knock off Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, creating a lot of movement at the top of this week's Heisman Watch board.
Miami QB Darian Mensah remains the favorite — returning a 5x payout if he wins on PrizePicks — after another spectacular performance, but it was against FCS Florida A&M.
Sayin and Smith did their part in the first three quarters to put the Buckeyes in position, but it was Manning and his Longhorns who stole the show, with Manning now a solid third on the board, returning a 7.69x payout if he wins.
We also had our first upset casualty among Heisman contenders, as four-TD underdog Oklahoma State upset Oregon and QB Dante Moore at home.
Week 3 has a special treat as Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss host its former coach, Lane Kiffin, who brings Heisman candidate Sam Leavitt to town.
Below, we'll take a look at the Heisman Watch frontrunners ahead of Week 3, breaking down the top contenders to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy and their Week 3 stat projections on PrizePicks.
Make your 2026 Heisman Trophy predictions on PrizePicks
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2026 Heisman Watch: Top Heisman Candidates as of Week 3
Here are the 2026 Heisman Trophy favorites, including their real-money payouts to win, via PrizePicks.
The payout multipliers indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct on PrizePicks; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
Darian Mensah, Arch Manning Lead 2026 Heisman Trophy Watch This Week
Here are our top three Heisman Trophy contenders with the 2026 season entering Week 3, with a new QB popping up to the #1 spot in our Heisman predictions after a big Week 2 win.
3. Alabama QB Keelon Russell
Heisman Trophy Winner Payout via PrizePicks: 22.22x - Yes
Next Game: vs. Florida State – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
The question entering summer camp was whether sophomore Keelon Russell would even earn the starting QB job at Alabama after a camp battle with senior Austin Mack. Question answered. Over two weeks, Russell not only was remarkable with over 300 total yards vs. East Carolina in the opener, but also won his first SEC road start, completing 73.3% of his passes at Kentucky.
Russell has led an Alabama offense averaging 46.5 points per game, 21st in the nation, with an EPA/play of +0.27. Alabama also ranks 10th in time of possession. Per Third and Data, they are in the top 25 in Rush success rate and EPA/play, which Russell has contributed to with his 77 yards on the ground.
But what I really like about former Elite 11 MVP’s chances is the opportunities. He has trips to Baton Rouge and Knoxville on the schedule, as well as showcase home games vs. Florida State this week and #2 Georgia next month.
We know Heisman voters like Bama candidates, as DeVonta Smith and Bryce Young won back-to-back Heismans in 2020 and 2021, with Derrick Henry five years before that.
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Keelon Russell Projections vs. Florida State for Week 3 CFB
Keelon Russell’s projections are from the PrizePicks real money CFB game — pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and win cash when you're right.
- 257.5 Pass Yards
- 49.5 Rush Yards
- 1.5 Player TDs
- 2.5 Pass TDs
- 329.5 Pass + Rush Yards
- 0.5 INT
- 41.5 Longest Completion
- 14.5 Longest Rush
2. Miami QB Darian Mensah
Heisman Trophy Winner Payout via PrizePicks: 5x Yes | 1.14x No
Next Game: @ Wake Forest – Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
The numbers keep piling up through two games for Miami QB Darian Mensah, who remains the favorite at PrizePicks, returning a 5x payout if he wins.
In his first two games with the Hurricanes after transferring from Duke, Mensah has thrown for 8 TDs (third-most in the nation), 653 yards (12th in the country), with 0 INTs. That has resulted in a 271.7 passer rating, only trailing Georgia’s Gunner Stockton.
Per PFF, Mensah has a 94.4 PFF grade through two games, the best of any QB. He is leading a Hurricanes offense that is tops in the country with 0.57 EPA per play, while completing an FBS-leading 91.1% of his passes.
Before coming to Miami, Mensah threw for 3,973 yards at Duke in 2025, the second-most in the country and the most among Power 4 conference QBs. He also finished the season second in TD passes with 34, trailing only Heisman winner and 2026 #1 pick Fernando Mendoza.
Mensah and Miami won’t have much of a test until they travel to South Bend in November to face Notre Dame, so expect Mensah to continue piling up yards and TDs and remain near the top of the Heisman race.
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Darian Mensah Projections vs. Wake Forest for CFB Week 3
Darian Mensah’s projections are from the PrizePicks real money CFB game.
- 2.5 Pass TDs
- 289.5 Pass Yards
- 2.5 Rush Yards
1. Texas QB Arch Manning
Heisman Trophy Winner Payout via PrizePicks: 7.69x - Yes | 1.06x - No
Next game: vs. UTSA – Saturday, 8:00 p.m. on SECN
Entering the fourth quarter of last week’s game vs. Ohio State, it looked like another missed opportunity for Arch Manning and Texas. The Longhorns trailed 23-3, and Manning had only 113 passing yards and an INT. The INT wasn’t his fault, but that wasn’t going to matter with the score.
Well, Peyton and Eli’s nephew put himself right back near the top of the Heisman board with a fourth quarter for the ages, completing 8 of 11 passes for 82 yards and a TD and rallying Texas to a 24-23 win with 21 unanswered points.
Now Texas is #1 in the country, and Manning is the third most likely to win the Heisman at PrizePicks, returning 7.69x if he wins. And he may have already played himself #1 pick chatter for next year's NFL Draft.
For the season, the junior QB has 500 yards passing with 5 TDs and 2 INTs. Manning finished last season as one of the top QBs in the nation over his last six games, compiling an 87.9 QBR. He completed 62.3% of his passes, with 14 TDs, 2 INTs, averaging 285.7 passing yards per game.
The first hurdle is cleared for Manning, but with road dates against #15 Tennessee, #20 Missouri, #9 Texas A&M, and #7 LSU, and the Red River Rivalry with #24 Oklahoma, there is still a long way to go.
Pick Arch Manning to win the Heisman Trophy on PrizePicks!
Arch Manning Projections vs. UTSA for CFB Week 3
Arch Manning’s projections are from the PrizePicks real money CFB game.
- 265.5 Pass Yards
- 49.5 Rush Yards
- 1.5 Player TDs
- 3.5 Pass TDs
- 23.5 Pass Completions
- 329.5 Pass +Rush Yards
- 0.5 INT
- 43.5 Longest Completion
- 12.5 Longest Rush
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Make Picks on Heisman Candidates on PrizePicks
The 2026 college football season is well underway, with Heisman contenders already lighting up the field. Can Darian Mensah continue his torrid start and remain the Heisman favorite? Or will Manning’s comeback against Ohio State propel him to the top?
Make your Heisman Trophy pick with futures on PrizePicks Team Picks. Just go to the PrizePicks app, open Team Picks, pick the player you think will win the Heisman, and earn cash if you're right on your pick.
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Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.
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