Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Pick for US Open – Sunday, September 6

On Sunday, Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas will open the night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium for their round-of-16 clash. 

Tsitsipas has no doubt been one of the big stories of the tournament. A former fixture in the top 10, the 28-year-old has struggled with his form the past two years and arrived in New York ranked outside the top 50 with little in the way of expectations. The US Open has also been the Greek’s worst major, having never previously advanced past the third round.

Yet, seemingly out of nowhere, here he is in the round of 16 against the top-ranked American. Can Tsitsipas continue his surprise run, or will Shelton keep his championship hopes alive? 

Below, we’ll break down our Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Sunday’s match now!

{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Round of 16

Below are the payouts for who will win Sunday’s Shelton vs. Tsitsipas match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction for US Open – Sunday, September 6

Match Winner Payouts: Shelton 1.33x | Tsitsipas 3.03x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Shelton 33-13 | Tsitsipas 25-19
Head-to-Head Record: Tsitsipas leads 1-0
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

When Stefanos Tsitsipas drew world No. 11 and 2026 Cincinnati Open champion Arthur Fils in the first round, most expected his US Open run to be over before it had even begun. 

Instead, the Greek emerged with a shocking 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-1, 6-4 win, beginning his improbable run to the round of 16.

Tsitsipas followed that performance with wins over qualifier Lloyd Harris and world No. 19 Jiri Lehecka. It hasn’t been a smooth ride to this point, with each of his three victories going four sets, but Tsitsipas will happily take it. He’s already advanced further at the US Open than he ever has before.

Once ranked as high as No. 3 in the world, Tsitsipas began this season ranked outside the top 30 following an injury-plagued 2025 campaign. He struggled to find his form in the first half of the year, eventually even dropping outside the top 80.

A run to the Gstaad title in July gave some semblance of hope and moved him just outside the top 50. However, the momentum was short-lived, as he then followed it up with just four wins across four hard-court events ahead of arriving in New York.

Tsitsipas did make a coaching change this summer, most notably adding Patrick Mouratoglou to his team, who’s best known for his long and successful partnership with Serena Williams. Still, they likely didn’t expect the move to pay dividends so quickly.   

On the other hand, Ben Shelton’s appearance in the round of 16 is far less surprising as a top-10 player who won the Canadian Open this summer. Shelton has also needed four sets to win each of his matches, but he’s faced a solid group of opponents in Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, and Denis Shapovalov. 

Although the American’s level has fluctuated throughout the season, the highs have included winning four titles and reaching the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. Shelton was a US Open semifinalist in 2023 and almost certainly has championship aspirations here in New York.  

According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Shelton is projected to win this match 73.8% of the time. Considering the season Tsitsipas was having before this event, his US Open already has to be deemed a success. While he might be able to give Shelton some trouble, the American appears more likely to advance.

Make your Shelton vs. Tsitsipas US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Ben Shelton vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas for the US Open on Sunday

Shelton vs. Tsitsipas Pick – 40.5 Total Games

All six matches these two have played at this US Open have gone to a fourth set, and all six matches have featured at least one tiebreak. 

Seven of the 11 Grand Slam matches Shelton has played this season have gone four or more sets and/or included a tiebreak. Similarly, six of the eight completed Grand Slam matches Tsitsipas has played in this year have gone four sets.

Despite his struggles this year, Tsitsipas is 2-3 versus top-10 opponents in 2026.

Entering the tournament, 27.4% of the sets Tsitsipas has played this year have gone to a tiebreak. Shelton has played a tiebreak in 27.0% of his sets.

These two played once before in 2023. Tsitsipas won 7-6(3), 7-6(2) at the Cincinnati Open.

Pick Shelton to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

This should be a fantastic match between Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas to kick off the night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Which player will reach the quarterfinals?

Don’t wait until Sunday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

{{trophy_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.