Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov Prediction, Pick for US Open – Friday, September 4

On Friday, Ben Shelton takes on Denis Shapovalov to close out the night on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Shelton continues to be one of the best hopes to break the lengthy major championship drought for the American men. Can he get one step closer with a third-round win over Shapovalov?

Below, we’ll break down our Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Friday’s match now!

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Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Third Round

Below are the payouts for who will win Friday’s Shelton vs. Shapovalov match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov US Open Prediction – Friday, September 4

Match Winner Payouts: Shelton 1.23x | Shapovalov 3.84x
Tournament Round: Third Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Shelton 33-13 | Shapovalov 14-17
Head-to-Head Record: Shelton leads 4-0
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN2

Ben Shelton was handed a bit of a tricky draw through the first two rounds, but he’s survived and advanced past Tallon Griekspoor and Hubert Hurkacz in a pair of four-setters.

The Canadian Open champion has now won a whopping 77.8% of his hard-court matches in 2026. 

While Shelton was a semifinalist at the US Open in 2023, he stalled out in the third round in each of the past two seasons and is hoping to make a deeper run this time around.

He likely enters this particular matchup with loads of confidence. Shelton is 4-0 against Denis Shapovalov and defeated the Canadian earlier this year in Dallas.

Shapovalov is just 27 years old, yet he seems far removed from the player who cracked the top 10 in 2020 and once looked like a rising star. From 2020 to 2022, the Canadian reached at least the quarterfinals at three different majors, most notably making the semifinals at Wimbledon in 2021 before falling to eventual champion Novak Djokovic.

However, he hasn’t been able to reach those heights in the years since, and 2026 has been a particularly trying campaign. 

Even with his two US Open victories, Shapovalov has a middling 16-17 record and has suffered multiple injuries this summer, forcing him to retire at both Wimbledon and, more recently, at the Canadian Open.

While Shapovalov is coming off solid wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Luca Van Assche, his inconsistent form and questionable fitness level entering the US Open make it difficult to see him flipping the script in this one-sided rivalry. Shapovalov has also struggled with double faults, already committing 20 through two rounds.

According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Shelton is projected to win this match 78.1% of the time. 

Make your Shelton vs. Shapovalov US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Ben Shelton vs. Denis Shapovalov for the US Open on Friday

Shelton Pick – 25.5 Fantasy Score

Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.

While Shelton has dominated this head-to-head, their matches have generally been quite close. 

In their meeting earlier this year, Shelton needed three sets to win 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(4). In their only previous Grand Slam match, the American outlasted Shapovalov 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 at Wimbledon in 2024. 

The two also had a match where Shelton was up 7-6(5), 6-6 before the Canadian was disqualified for yelling at a fan.

Despite having a big serve, the American could have a difficult time generating aces against Shapovalov. The Canadian has been aced just 3.0% of the time on hard courts this year, the best mark among the top 50 players.  

Shelton has scored 24 and 15.5 fantasy points in his first two matches.

Pick Shelton to win + fantasy score won on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Ben Shelton is looking to advance past the third round of the US Open for the second time in his career. Can he take care of business against an opponent who’s winless against him?

Don’t wait until Friday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

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Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.