Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Pick for US Open – Tuesday, September 8

In the most highly anticipated US Open quarterfinal match of the day, Ben Shelton faces Carlos Alcaraz in the nightcap on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Much to the rest of the field’s dismay, Alcaraz has shaken off the rust of his lengthy layoff eerily quickly, dropping just a set through four rounds. The defending champion could already be nearing his peak level, and Shelton will need to bring his best to have a chance.

The American comes in battle-tested, though, picking up a slew of wins against quality opponents dating back to his run to the Canadian Open title this summer. Can he do enough to dethrone Alcaraz?  

Below, we’ll break down our Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Tuesday’s match now!

{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Quarterfinals

Below are the payouts for who will win Tuesday’s Shelton vs. Alcaraz match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction for US Open – Tuesday, September 8

Match Winner Payouts: Shelton 3.84x | Alcaraz 1.23x
Tournament Round: Quarterfinals
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Shelton 33-13 | Alcaraz 22-3
Head-to-Head Record: Alcaraz leads 3-0
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

While all four of Ben Shelton’s US Open wins have come against players ranked outside the top 40, this has hardly been an easy draw against Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Griekspoor has neared the top 20 several times, while the other three are all former top-10 players. 

Shelton needed four sets to get through each of his first three matches, but he got everything to click against Tsitsipas in the round of 16. The American dominated pretty much from start to finish in a 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 win where he faced zero break points.

Tsitsipas was in the middle of a strong run that included top-20 wins over Arthur Fils and Jiri Lehecka, making Shelton’s performance all the more notable.

He’ll need to bring that level and then some against Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz has mostly breezed through his matches against Roman Safiullin, Jaime Faria, Yibing Wu, and Tommy Paul, with Faria being the only one to take a set. The Spaniard’s straightforward 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 win over Paul left the American completely bewildered by the level Alcaraz showed.

The defending US Open champion was apparently so dialed into the match that he didn’t even realize who his next opponent might be until coming to the ESPN studio set.

Even an in-form Shelton will be up against it to trouble an Alcaraz who’s playing like he was never sidelined with a wrist injury. The American is 0-3 against Alcaraz, winning only one of the eight sets they’ve played.

Further, while Shelton has become a fixture in the top 10, he’s consistently struggled to defeat the very best in the sport. He’s 4-21 lifetime versus top-five opponents. Against Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic, he’s a combined 1-18.

With that in mind, Alcaraz could be in line to advance to the semifinals for the fourth time in five years.      

Make your Shelton vs. Alcaraz US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz for the US Open on Tuesday

Shelton vs. Alcaraz Pick – 38.5 Total Games

While Shelton is 0-3 versus Alcaraz, the lone set he’s won came in their most recent match at last year’s French Open. The Spaniard won 7-6(8), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 across 42 total games.

Three of Shelton’s four matches at this US Open have gone four sets, and they’ve totaled 35, 46, and 45 games.  

Shelton has been excellent serving on hard courts this season. He's won 71.0% of his service points while maintaining a 90.5% hold rate. Those marks rank third and fourth, respectively, among the top 50 players. Even a returner of Alcaraz's caliber could have a difficult time breaking Shelton's serve.

Alcaraz also has an elite hold rate on hard courts this year (90.6%), and he's been broken only six times during this run despite his serve speed being down to begin the tournament. If both players continue to serve effectively, we could see many tight sets and perhaps even some tiebreaks.

Pick Alcaraz to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz are both playing good tennis at this event. Can the American get the upset against the defending champ?

Don’t wait until Tuesday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

{{trophy_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with PrizePicks, available in 36 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.