Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 3

Baylor and Arizona State are scheduled to square off against each other in a Big 12 clash in Week 5 of the college football season on Saturday, October 3 at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Ahead of Saturday’s kickoff, the Sun Devils are 3.5-point home favorites on PrizePicks.

Baylor is coming off a 23-13 victory over Colorado in Week 4, extending its winning streak to three. Meanwhile, Arizona State had a bye week to prepare for this conference showdown, which followed a 24-17 win against Kansas in Week 3.

Below, we'll break down our Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks on PrizePicks.

Make your Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 3

It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Florida transfer QB DJ Lagway since joining the Bears. Across his first two starts for Baylor, he's producing the 15th-fewest yards per attempt (6.0) and the lowest adjusted completion percentage (56.5%) among 146 college QBs with 50 or more dropbacks, per PFF.

Because of Lagway’s woes under center, the Bears are in just the 33rd percentile in EPA/pass (0.00) entering Week 5, per Game on Paper. Lagway and Baylor’s offense will need to be much more effective on Saturday night to keep the program’s undefeated conference record alive.

On the other hand, Kentucky transfer QB Cutter Boley has tallied the 39th-most yards per attempt (8.7) and the 84th-highest adjusted completion percentage (73.1%) in the same sample from above. Despite Boley’s solid metrics, the Sun Devils are in the third percentile in EPA/pass (-0.25).

The inefficiencies of these aerial attacks could be even more prevalent with both teams having stout pass defenses. Baylor’s defense is in the 74th percentile in passing success rate (39.2%) and Arizona State’s defense is in the 81st percentile (37.7%).

Even with the Bears and Sun Devils getting off to solid starts, they are both considered longshots to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. On PrizePicks, Baylor and Arizona State are tied for just the 28th-lowest payout (10x) to make it.

Baylor vs. Arizona State Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 3

Arizona State enters Saturday’s game as a 3.5-point home favorite against Baylor, returning a 1.53x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Baylor vs. Arizona State game on PrizePicks.

Make your Baylor vs. Arizona State pick on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct PrizePicks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Baylor vs. Arizona State Prediction on Over/Under – 10/3/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction on the over/under for Saturday, October 3’s game. 

• Besides Baylor and Arizona State having inefficient offenses, neither squad has been able to effectively run the ball, either.
• The Bears are sitting in the sixth percentile in EPA/rush (-0.20), while the Sun Devils are in the first percentile (-0.22).
• Out of 138 qualified programs, Baylor is 28th in defensive success rate (39.5%). Arizona State is 21st at 37.9%.
• Since the start of last season, Arizona State has the worst record to the over (3-7) in the Big 12 against conference opponents.
• Baylor is tied for the fourth-worst record to the over (4-6) when facing conference foes since the start of 2025. Plus, the Bears are 1-3 to the over to begin the 2026 campaign. 

Lock in your Baylor vs. Arizona State prediction on PrizePicks now!

Baylor vs. Arizona State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/3/26

Here are the top Baylor vs. Arizona State picks to target on Saturday, October 3. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB Kyson Brown and WR Gavin Freeman.

Arizona State RB Kyson Brown vs. Baylor: 90.5 Rush Yards

• Brown has yet to eclipse 81 rushing yards across his first three starts in 2026.
• Baylor hasn’t allowed a rusher to clear 75 rushing yards in its first four games this season.
• The Bears are 30th in yards per rush (4.0) and 29th in rushing success rate (38.8%) allowed out of 138 qualified schools this year.

Add Kyson Brown + Arizona State to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Baylor WR Gavin Freeman vs. Arizona State: 80.5 Rec Yards

• Although Baylor’s Lagway-led aerial attack isn’t overly efficient, Freeman leads the team with 48 targets. The player with the second-most targets on the team has 20 targets.
• Freeman has tallied 100 or more receiving yards in two of his first four games in 2026.
• While the Sun Devils are strong against the pass, they are 62nd out of 138 teams in yards per dropback allowed (6.4).
• Of the five players with 80+ passing-down snaps on the Bears, Freeman has the most yards per route run (2.51).

Add Gavin Freeman + Baylor to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Baylor vs. Arizona State Picks on PrizePicks

Baylor and Arizona State are trying to avoid suffering a second loss this season in both programs’ second conference matchup in 2026. Given the lack of efficiency and effectiveness of the Bears' and Sun Devils’ passing attacks, points could be tough to come by in this Big 12 clash.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Baylor vs. Arizona State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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