Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov Prediction, UFC 332 Pick to Win

We finally get to see if “The Storm” is worth putting on the radar.

For multiple years, Cameroon’s Ateba Gautier has starred on preliminary cards with highlight knockouts. He’ll get the call-up to the main card in the biggest fight of his career against Russian kickboxer Roman Kopylov.

This featured bout of UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang is expected to start around 8:15 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

Below, we'll dive into our Gautier vs. Kopylov prediction and UFC picks for PrizePicks, including the model's lean on who will win this fight at UFC 332.

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Ateba Gautier vs. Roman Kopylov Prediction, Preview for UFC 332 Co-Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Ateba Gautier: 1.38x

• By KO/TKO: 2.00x
• By Submission: 11.11x
• By Decision: 4.34x

Roman Kopylov: 2.94x

• By KO/TKO: 5.26x
• By Submission: 16.66x
• By Decision: 4.76x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

Given the way the modern UFC pipeline works, get used to these types of fights on the main cards of numbered events.

There’s no doubt that, to some extent, Ateba Gautier has been coddled by the promotion. They are aware they have something special in a 6’4” middleweight who has the body of a Greek god and thunderous knockout artist, but he actually brings remarkable precision, patience, and variance in his strikes. He fights like a guy with half his muscle tone.

That’s why, to this point, they haven’t tested him. His five UFC fights were squash matches as he accumulated five wins, a +1.72 striking success rate (SSR), and a 4.43% knockdown rate. For context, that means he drops an opponent in fewer than 1 out of every 25 punches so far.

The truth will become unveiled against Roman Kopylov, who amidst his own 7-5 UFC career, has shown he’s no slouch. The Russian has lightning in his fists and legs, throwing quick kicks. He’s struggled at times in disadvantageous grappling spots, but his takedown defense (88%) is strong overall.

Kopylov is coming off a convincing win over Brazil’s Marco Tulio, ending a two-fight skid against top-10 fighters — Gregory Rodrigues and Paulo Costa. Neither of those "Ls" was embarrassing whatsoever.

Gautier (93%) shares Kopylov’s strong takedown defense, so we’re likely getting a war on the feet between a crafty veteran and a surging prospect. Who will win out?

Find UFC 332 Predictions + Picks for every main card fight here.

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How Ateba Gautier Wins vs. Roman Kopylov at UFC 332

Patience has been a strength of Gautier’s, and at elevation in Utah, it should be even more paramount.

The last thing he can afford in the toughest fight of his life is gassing out from extreme energy usage early, and he’s very likely to drop Kopylov given his mammoth knockdown rate. That alone wins the round, so staying within himself will be key.

On a per-minute basis, Gautier’s six-inch reach edge and jab are an enormous advantage when boxers, like Costa and Chris Curtis, have been more successful against Kopylov than those who primarily rely on kicks.

Gautier can absolutely find a knockout here, but planning for if it doesn't happen is his key to victory.

How Roman Kopylov Wins vs. Ateba Gautier at UFC 332

In some respects, Andrey Pulyaev laid the blueprint for Roman Kopylov in this fight.

His countryman was Gautier’s toughest fight, posting a +25 striking differential with quick low kicks, jabs, and teeps. However, the Russian got dropped twice to lose key late moments and the decision.

Kopylov’s challenge will be to avoid the drops, and his striking defense (53%) isn’t as high as I’d have guessed for someone with his length and speed at distance. He’s only been dropped once, by Costa, in his whole career, though.

Perhaps a highlight kick could be in the cards for a man who isn’t a stranger to one, but the longer and more boring this fight looks, the more likely his experience can win it.

Make your Gautier vs. Kopylov prediction on PrizePicks.

Gautier vs. Kopylov Prediction for UFC 332 Co-Main Event

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Gautier vs. Kopylov Model Results for UFC 332

This wasn’t a surprising model result at all, which nearly mirrors the projections themselves at PrizePicks Team Picks.

The most likely outcome of a Gautier (T)KO (38.4%) comes from his power, but it’s also significantly less likely than usual for a guy who, otherwise, has been favored to find a knockout in every fight of his career thus far.

Gautier has also absorbed just 2.60 significant strikes per minute, which is why it doesn’t believe Kopylov has an exceptional chance to find the button (12.8%) himself.

If the fight is longer, that’s where it gets more interesting. A rounding error is the difference in the two decision outcomes. Even though Gautier is historically more efficient than Kopylov (-0.54 SSR), the Russian’s level of competition and wrestling upside are noted.

The least surprising thing here was just a 5.6% chance overall for a submission. Neither fighter has one in 32 combined pro fights. It would probably have to be exhaustion-related, but we are fighting at elevation in Salt Lake City.

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Gautier vs. Kopylov Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Ateba Gautier – 30.5 Significant Strikes

The model’s pick for a full fight 43.2% of the time makes a “More” viable in this spot.

To my surprise, Kopylov’s willingness to take one to land one has resulted in his last five opponents averaging 90.2 total significant strikes. He’s a single second away from five straight decisions in this sample.

Gautier’s pace, attempting 10.05 significant strikes per minute, is quite strong if we get another long bout, and the lack of wrestling from both men normalizes overall striking expectations.

Make picks on UFC 332 stats like significant strikes, fight time, and more on PrizePicks!

Make Your Gautier vs. Kopylov Picks on PrizePicks

This main card bout of UFC 332 goes down this Saturday from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Gautier vs. Kopylov, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 36 states.

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.