Aryna Sabalenka vs. Taylor Townsend Prediction, Pick for US Open – Sunday, September 6

American Taylor Townsend is better known for her success in doubles, but she’s into the US Open round of 16 for the second straight year.

However, Townsend now finds herself up against world No. 1 and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka. Does she have a shot at pulling off the upset? 

Below, we’ll break down our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Taylor Townsend prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN.

Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Sunday’s match now!

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Taylor Townsend Prediction, Favorite for the US Open Round of 16

Below are the payouts for who will win Sunday’s Sabalenka vs. Townsend match, via PrizePicks. 

Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Taylor Townsend Prediction for US Open – Sunday, September 6

Match Winner Payouts: Sabalenka 1.17x | Townsend 4.54x
Tournament Round: Round of 16
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Sabalenka 40-8 | Townsend 18-12
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
Scheduled Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN

Taylor Townsend hasn’t gotten out of the first round at the other three majors in the past two years, yet she’s found success on home soil, reaching the US Open round of 16 for the second straight time.

It’s no fluke the American has reached this stage, though. Townsend dominated her first two matches, defeating 2026 French Open runner-up Maja Chwalinksa 6-2, 6-3 and then blowing past wild card Taylah Preston 6-1, 6-1 in just 48 minutes.

Townsend then drew a tough test against world No. 16 Diana Shnaider, but she was up to the challenge, winning a hard-fought 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-3 match.  

Despite her great form, Townsend now finds herself a sizable underdog against four-time major champion Aryna Sabalenka.

Incredibly, between the US Open and Australian Open, Sabalenka has been a finalist in seven straight hard-court majors, effectively making her the final boss of the surface.

While Sabalenka had a somewhat underwhelming summer by her standards, falling in the round of 16 at Wimbledon, Toronto, and Cincinnati, she’s looked every bit the world No. 1 through three rounds, winning all three of her matches in straight sets.     

Sabalenka is now an absurd 30-3 on hard courts in 2026, and although two of those losses came this summer, she’s looked completely locked in since arriving in New York.

Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Sabalenka is showing an 88.1% chance of victory. It’s been a great run for Townsend, but she might be out of her depth against the back-to-back champion. 

Make your Sabalenka vs. Townsend US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Taylor Townsend for the US Open on Sunday

Sabalenka vs. Townsend Pick – 20.5 Total Games

Townsend is 0-4 against top-10 players in 2026 and 3-18 against them over her career.

Sabalenka is 17-0 against players ranked outside the top 50 this season, and 16 of those wins have been in straight sets. Townsend is the world No. 96.

This year on hard courts, Sabalenka has won 66.2% of her service points, the highest clip among the top 50 players. Townsend has won just 40.8% of her return points on the surface, leading to a modest 27.3% break rate.

Dating back to the 2023, Sabalenka is 48-3 in Grand Slam matches on hard courts. Her only losses have been to Coco Gauff, Madison Keys, and Elena Rybakina.

Pick Sabalenka to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Taylor Townsend has had a great run at the US Open but now faces the WTA Tour’s most imposing hard-court player. Could she still give Aryna Sabalenka a scare on Sunday? 

Don’t wait until Sunday’s matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

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