On Tuesday at the US Open, Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Sonego will close out the first round in the nightcap on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Zverev has enjoyed a banner campaign, highlighted by his first major title at this year’s French Open. He’s made deep runs at all three Grand Slams thus far, reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open and finishing runner-up at Wimbledon. Can he do the same at this edition of the US Open?
Below, we’ll break down our Alexander Zverev vs. Lorenzo Sonego prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks for Tuesday’s match now!
{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Alexander Zverev vs. Lorenzo Sonego Prediction, Favorite for the US Open First Round
Below are the payouts for who will win Tuesday’s Zverev vs. Sonego match, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Tennis on PrizePicks got its biggest upgrade yet just in time for the US Open. Users can now combine a player to win outright with Player Picks, including aces, total games won, and more! Click here for more information.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.
Alexander Zverev vs. Lorenzo Sonego US Open Prediction – Tuesday, September 1
Match Winner Payouts: Zverev 1.03x | Sonego 10x
Tournament Round: First Round
2026 Record Entering the US Open: Zverev 46-13 | Sonego 11-14
Head-to-Head Record: Zverev leads 6-0
Scheduled Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ESPN
Between Jannik Sinner’s absence, Carlos Alcaraz returning from a long layoff, and the shocking first-round upsets of Novak Djokovic and Arthur Fils, this is shaping up to be a golden opportunity for Alexander Zverev to claim his first US Open title.
Following his run to the Wimbledon final, Zverev failed to build momentum this past month on hard courts, going one-and-done in Montreal and then winning just two matches in Cincinnati before falling to Tommy Paul.
While that’s a slight concern, Zverev’s overall 2026 resume is hard to ignore. He’s reached at least the semifinals of all three Grand Slams this year, and he was also a semifinalist at both Indian Wells and Miami in the spring, two of the premier hard-court tournaments.
Further, this is an ideal first-round matchup for Zverev to get off on the right foot.
Near the beginning of the year, Lorenzo Sonego was sidelined with a wrist injury for nearly three months, and he’s struggled to find his form ever since. He’s won consecutive matches just twice all season, leading to a lackluster 11-14 record.
Sonego’s play in the lead-up to the US Open didn’t move the needle much, either. He went 3-3 across three hard-court events, and two of the three wins came against opponents ranked outside the top 200.
Seeing Zverev across the net may be unlikely to boost Sonego’s confidence. The Italian is 0-6 in his career against Zverev, winning just two of the 14 sets they’ve played.
Sonego also has a poor history at the US Open, as he's lost his first-round match in five of the past six years.
Ultimately, it could take a significant drop in Zverev's level for Sonego to have a shot tonight.
Make your Zverev vs. Sonego US Open prediction on PrizePicks now!
{{tennis_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Alexander Zverev vs. Lorenzo Sonego for the US Open on Tuesday
According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Zverev ranks third on hard courts, whereas Sonego is 81st. That sizable gap gives Zverev a 91.6% win probability.
While these two have never played a best-of-five at a major, four of Zverev’s six wins over Sonego have come in straight sets.
Sonego is 2-19 vs. top-five players in his career. In 2026, he’s lost all four matches he’s played against top-20 opponents.
The Italian’s season-long struggles have led to him dropping to 89th in the world rankings. Zverev is 7-0 against players ranked outside the top 50 in Grand Slams this year, with five of those victories coming in straight sets.
Sonego owns a 45.5% career win rate on hard courts, his worst of the three surfaces. Zverev, by comparison, boasts a 69.0% career hard-court win rate.
Zverev vs. Sonego Pick – 33.5 Total Games
Pick Zverev to win + total games on PrizePicks for higher payouts!
Make Your US Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks
Alexander Zverev is one of the favorites to win this year’s US Open. Will he take care of business against Lorenzo Sonego, or could the Italian give him some trouble tonight?
Don’t wait until Tuesday's matches start — make your US Open predictions on PrizePicks now.
Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily US Open predictions, tennis picks, and PrizePicks analysis throughout the tournament.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
