All-Star Week has begun in Philadelphia, and the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby — the marquee event of the week — will take place at Citizens Bank Park today at 8:00 p.m. ET, live on Netflix.
Hometown Phillies stars Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber headline an 8-player Home Run Derby field looking to claim the trophy on Monday night. Mariners C Cal Raleigh took home last year’s title in Atlanta over runner-up Rays 3B Junior Caminero, who is back and looking to take the Home Run Derby crown, with the second-best implied chance to win.
Let's break down the top 2026 Home Run Derby picks on the winner, longest home run, and Round 1 home runs via PrizePicks.
Make your 2026 Home Run Derby picks & winner prediction on PrizePicks now!
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2026 MLB Home Run Derby Picks, Outright Winner Payouts
Citizens Bank Park is a long-ball haven, a big-fly jackpot stadium that consistently ranks in the top five in park-adjusted home run output. The Phillies' home park also favors left-handed hitters, having given up the most HRs to lefties over the last three seasons, per Baseball Savant.
Eight big hitters are in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby field for Monday night’s event. Rays 3B Junior Caminero is the only one back from last year’s field, and he's joined by 2018 HR Derby champion Bryce Harper, MLB home run leader Kyle Schwarber, and first-half breakout star Ben Rice of the Yankees.
Schwarber leads the majors with 32 HRs, while Rice is third with 29 and Caminero is fourth with 28.
Below, we will take a look at all eight Home Run Derby participants, along with their 2026 home run totals and payouts to win the Home Run Derby on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states.
The Home Run Derby payouts listed below, like 4x, indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct on PrizePicks Team Picks; for example, 4x on a $100 entry pays out $400 on PrizePicks. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
Make your 2026 Home Run Derby picks on PrizePicks now! Including winner, Round 1 results, and more
How the Home Run Derby Works in 2026
Before you make your Home Run Derby picks, it’s important to know how the Home Run Derby format has changed in 2026, going from a timed, out-based format to a swing-based system in all three rounds.
- Round 1: 20 swings each. Four players with the most home runs advance. Ties decided by the longest individual home run.
- Round 2 (Semifinals): 15 swings each. Players are seeded 1-4 based on their Round 1 totals. 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 — winner advances.
- Finals: Two remaining hitters take 15 swings each to determine the champion.
One important rule to note: If a player hits a home run on their final swing of any round, they get to keep swinging until they fail to hit a home run.
Best 2026 MLB Home Run Derby Picks Tonight
Here are 3 Home Run Derby picks to consider ahead of tonight’s event on PrizePicks, including 2018 winner Bryce Harper, 2025 runner-up Junior Caminero, and Derby rookie Jac Caglianone.
Bryce Harper 2026 Home Run Derby Prediction: 8.5 Home Runs in 1st Rd
Harper to Win Payout: 7.69x Yes | 1.06x No
Harper to Advance Payout: 1.92x Yes | 1.75x No
- Harper is only one of the eight contestants who have won the Home Run Derby before, winning in 2018 over current teammate Kyle Schwarber by one home run.
- 114 of his 199 home runs as a Phillies have come at Citizens Bank Park.
- A left-handed hitter, Harper has 128 career home runs at Citizens Bank Park, which accounts for 33.4% of his 383 career long balls.
- Harper is one of only three players who have won the Home Run Derby in his home ballpark, as he won the 2018 Derby at Nationals Park while playing for the Nationals.
- Harper's BP pitcher will be Dino Ebel, the Dodgers' third base coach, who has won the event as the pitcher three times and threw to Kyle Schwarber in his 2025 All-Star Game swing-off.
Royals OF Jac Caglianone 2026 – 463.5 Feet Longest Home Run
Caglianone to Win Payout: 6.25x Yes | 1.09x No
Caglianone to Advance Payout: 1.96x Yes | 1.75x No
- 79% of Jac Caglianone’s home runs in his career are classified as “no-doubters” by MLB Statcast, which means they would’ve cleared the fence in all 30 stadiums.
- Three of his 22 career home runs have cleared 435 feet, including a 466-foot blast in his 2025 rookie season vs. Pittsburgh.
- Famously hit a 516-foot HR in April 2024 while in college at the University of Florida.
- Per Statcast, the Royals slugger ranks in the 96th percentile among MLB hitters in exit velo and 98th in hard hit percentage, impacting the ball at 95 mph or faster on 57.3% of batted balls.
Pick More or Less on Jac Caglianone in the Home Run Derby now!
Rays 3B Junior Caminero – 9.5 Home Runs in Round 1
Camerino to Win Payout: 4.76x Yes | 1.16x No
Camerino to Advance: 2.43x Yes | 1.49x No
- Caminero is the only returning contestant from the 2025 Home Run Derby, where he lost in the championship to Cal Raleigh.
- The Rays slugger has 15 home runs since June 1, tied for most in the league, while his 52.4% hard hit percentage ranks fourth.
- Per MLB, Caminero leads the majors with an average bat speed of 79.9 MPH.
- He also has the flattest swing path at 22 degrees, per MLB, which allows him to get top speed off the bat.
- Caminero leads the field with the longest home run distance this year, at 463 feet. He’s also second in 400+ foot home runs (16) and no doubters (10), per Ballpark Pal.
Pick More or Less on Jac Caglianone in the Home Run Derby now!
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Make Home Run Derby Picks on PrizePicks
Will one of the two Phillies hitters win in front of the home Philadelphia crowd? Or will one of the youngsters, like Jac Caglianone, steal the show?
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your 2026 MLB Home Run Derby picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick MLB All-Stars, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right on the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on the winners in every All-Star Week event, including the Home Run Derby!
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