Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, July 6

First pitch for the matchup between the New York Yankees (49-40) and the Tampa Bay Rays (52-35) is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Monday, July 6, with the Rays favored on PrizePicks Team Picks and returning a 1.78x payout with a win.

This has the potential to be a season-altering series in St. Petersburg. The Yankees are struggling and have recently lost the lead in the American League East to none other than the Rays. They have a chance to regain at least a share of first place here, as they are four games behind Tampa Bay entering this four-game set.

It will be on Yankees SP Cam Schlittler, who is coming off the worst start of his career, to get New York back on track. Can he do so against a quality opponent?

Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Rays prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Yankees vs. Rays prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, July 6

In the last start for Schlittler (2.99 xFIP in 104 IP), we found out he’s human after all when he gave up 6 earned runs and 4 home runs in just 4 innings against the Tigers. This pushed his ERA over 2.00 for the first time since April 12, showing why PrizePicks Team Picks still has him as the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young.

Schlittler isn’t even immune to the Yankees' recent downward spiral. They've lost eight of their last nine, and the offense during this time has been virtually non-existent. Since June 20, they rank last in wOBA (.246), wRC+ (53), xBA (.198), and xSLG (.305). 

Injuries have played a role. New York doesn't have two of its top hitters, RF Aaron Judge and DH Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like either will be back soon; Judge has yet to resume baseball activities and Stanton suffered a setback in his recovery.

Since the offense is slumping, other weaknesses are becoming more noticeable. The Yankees' defense has been a problem throughout the season, and it recently cost them some wins. They rank 21st in the league with 52 errors, which has led to 51 unearned runs, the third-most.

The Rays counter with SP Griffin Jax (3.70 xFIP in 60 IP). Moving out of the bullpen has worked, as Jax has been stellar as a starter to the tune of a 2.65 ERA. He also has wins in each of his last three starts. Jax has played a part in the Rays' recent success that has them surging up the standings.

Tampa has won nine of its last 11 games, allowing it to step over New York from three games back on June 24 to four games up. 

The Rays' biggest contributor has to be 3B Junior Caminero. The 23-year-old is one of the hottest hitters in baseball and has stolen the headlines, as he comes in hitting 11 home runs over his last 11 games. He's the youngest player since 1900 to hit a home run in six consecutive contests.

Yankees vs. Rays Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, July 6

The Rays enter Monday’s game as home favorites against the Yankees, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Rays game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (2.77x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (2x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.92x | Rays 1.78x

Play the Yankees vs. Rays spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction on Winner – 7/6/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Rays prediction on the winner for Monday, July 6.

Lock in your Yankees vs. Rays prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Rays have dominated the season series, winning four of the five games.
• In Schlittler’s last start in Tampa Bay on April 12, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs in his first loss of the season.
• This will be Jax’s first start of the year against the Yankees, but he has 2 relief appearances that saw him toss 1.1 innings and cede no hits or runs with 3 strikeouts.
• Jax excels at inducing swings and misses, as his 30.4% whiff rate is in the 86th percentile. This has been a weakness of the Yankees all season, as their 27.2% whiff rate is the third-worst in MLB.
• The Yankees' power has evaporated. From the start of the season until June 19, they were second in the league with a .438 xSLG. Since then, they're dead last at .305.

Yankees vs. Rays Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/6/26

Here are the top Yankees vs. Rays picks to target on Monday, July 6. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Trent Grisham and Junior Caminero.

Yankees CF Trent Grisham vs. Rays: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Grisham is 3-for-10 with 1 home run, 3 RBI, and 4 runs scored since returning from the injured list.
• He has 1 hit in 2 at-bats against Jax, with that hit being a home run.
• While Jax fools batters often, getting Grisham to swing out of the strike zone might be a challenge. His 16.5% chase rate is in the 99th percentile.
• Jax throws a changeup on 30% of his pitches to left-handed hitters, more than any other offering. This could benefit the lefty Grisham, who has a .432 wOBA against changeups this season.

Add Trent Grisham to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Rays 3B Junior Caminero vs. Yankees: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Since June 23, Caminero ranks second in xSLG (.882), second in wOBA (.637), and third in barrel rate (25.7%).
• The Rays' third baseman has past success against Schlittler, going 3-for-9 with a home run.
• Caminero is on a historical run and is the first player 24 years old or younger to record 11+ home runs and 22+ RBI in an 11-game span.
• Caminero has hit well against the Yankees this year, owning both a .333 BA and a .798 OPS.

Add Junior Caminero to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Yankees vs. Rays Picks on PrizePicks

This series might be the most important one on the MLB schedule this week. With the Yankees trailing the Rays in the AL East, a sweep could get them back to neck-and-neck with their division rivals. Can Schlittler set the tone on Monday, or will Tampa Bay come away with a win in game one?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Yankees vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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