Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, MLB Picks for ALDS Game 1 – Saturday, October 3

First pitch for the New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays game is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 3, at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay. The Rays enter this tilt on TBS as slight favorites on PrizePicks, returning a 1.69x payout with a win.

The AL East's two best teams meet in a heavyweight ALDS matchup after the Rays finished the regular season with 98 wins and the Yankees followed with 93.

Tampa Bay won seven of the 13 regular-season meetings, including a 4-2 series victory in the Bronx during the penultimate week of the regular season. However, New York's offense enters the ALDS with plenty of confidence after scoring 18 runs in a two-game sweep of Boston.

Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Rays prediction and picks for Saturday's ALDS Game 1, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Yankees vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now.

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Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for ALDS Game 1 – Saturday, October 3

RHP Drew Rasmussen (3.21 xFIP) gets the ball for Tampa Bay after one of the best seasons of his career. Rasmussen went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 174 strikeouts.

The Rays' offense has been consistent and strong all season. It's built around making contact, running the bases hard, and taking team-oriented at-bats. Tampa Bay owned the sixth-highest wRC+ (104) and maintained excellent plate discipline all year.

New York counters with Gerrit Cole (3.67 xFIP), who finished the regular season 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 131 strikeouts. Cole was particularly effective against Tampa Bay during the regular season, posting a 2.50 ERA across three starts.

The Yankees' offense operates under a completely different philosophy than the Rays. New York hit the second-most home runs (223) during the regular season and ended with the 14th-best wRC+ (101).

Yankees vs. Rays Winner Payout, Over/Under for MLB Playoffs Today – Saturday, October 3

The Rays enter Saturday's matchup as home favorites, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Rays game on PrizePicks.

Play the Yankees vs. Rays spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction on Winner for ALDS – 10/3/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Rays prediction on the winner for Saturday's ALDS Game 1.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from FanGraphs or Baseball Savant.

• Tampa Bay went 55-26 at home during the regular season and showcased a definite home-field advantage. It owns just a 100 wRC+ on the road compared to a 108 wRC+ at the Trop.
• I especially like Rasmussen’s ability to limit home runs. At home, he owns a minuscule 0.58 HR/9, something that will be helpful against a team that primarily generates its offense from the long ball.
• The Yankees’ offense was dreadful away from home this year. On the road, its wRC+ is just 92 (24th). At home, it's the third-best (111). 
• The Rays' relievers come into this matchup on fire. Over the last two weeks, Tampa Bay has held the third-best bullpen xFIP (3.36). New York is 17th with a 4.16 mark in the same span.

Lock in your Yankees vs. Rays prediction on PrizePicks now.

Yankees vs. Rays Picks, Player Stats for ALDS Game 1 on PrizePicks: 10/3/26

Here are the top Yankees vs. Rays picks to target in Saturday's ALDS Game 1. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks include Drew Rasmussen and Gerrit Cole.

Rays P Drew Rasmussen vs. Yankees: 6 Strikeouts

• I love this strikeout spot for Rasmussen as a reverse-splits pitcher against a predominantly left-handed lineup.
• The matchup history is also particularly encouraging: Rasmussen's last start against the Yankees featured 11 strikeouts, and he carried a no-hit bid into the seventh inning.
• Rasmussen owns a 10.16 K/9 against LHB but just a 7.70 K/9 against RHB. The Yankees are one of the most left-handed offenses in baseball and project to have eight lefties in the lineup tonight.
• New York struck out 25.4% of the time on the road in the regular season, the third-highest clip in baseball.
• Rasmussen has owned his Yankee lineup to the tune of 46 strikeouts in a combined 129 at-bats, good for a 35.6% strikeout rate.

Add Drew Rasmussen + Rays to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Yankees P Gerrit Cole vs. Rays: 5 Strikeouts

• Cole has awesome strikeout stuff but runs into the worst possible matchup to rack them up against the Rays, who struck out just 18.8% of the time this season, the lowest in the majors.
• The Rays have struck out just 41 times in a combined 170 ABs against Cole (24.1%).
• While Cole did go over this mark in two of his three appearances against the Rays this year, it is worth noting that he owned swinging strike rates of 6.7%, 9.3%, and 5.6%. All three were below his season-long average of 9.6%.
• Cole also had slightly worse strikeout stuff on the road (9.04 K/9) compared to at home (9.57) this year.

Add Gerrit Cole + Yankees to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Yankees vs. Rays Picks on PrizePicks

The Rays and Yankees begin their ALDS matchup Saturday night in what could be one of the postseason's most competitive series. Tampa Bay enters Game 1 with the AL's best regular-season record, while New York arrives after an 18-run offensive explosion in its Wild Card sweep of Boston.

Will Rasmussen continue his dominance against New York, or can 1B Ben Rice and the Yankees' suddenly red-hot offense get to Tampa Bay's ace? Don't wait until lock — make your Yankees vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right.

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