The New York Yankees (18-9) and the Houston Astros (10-18) will face off to conclude a three-game series on Sunday, April 26, at 2:10 p.m. ET.
The Yankees can sweep the Astros with a win on Sunday after grabbing the first two meetings by a combined score of 20-7.
Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Astros prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB showdown, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Yankees vs. Astros Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, April 26
In the third and final game of the series, Yankees SP Luis Gil (5.90 xFIP across 3 starts and 15.1 IP) and Astros SP Spencer Arrighetti (5.22 xFIP across 2 starts and 11.0 IP) will battle on the mound.
Along with a 23rd percentile xERA (5.20), Gil is in just the 10th percentile in strikeout rate (13.8%) and 26th percentile in walk rate (12.3%) to begin the 2026 MLB season, per Baseball Savant. Command has been an issue for Gil, as the right-handed hurler has issued at least 3 walks in two of his first three starts.
With OF Aaron Judge leading the charge, New York’s lineup has been one of the better units, logging the fifth-best wRC+ (113), fifth-best wOBA (.340), and best ISO (.197), via FanGraphs.
Although there are positive metrics in certain areas for Arrighetti, he’s still in the 27th percentile in xERA (5.03) and 10th percentile in walk rate (15.4%) since rejoining Houston’s rotation due to injuries. Arrighetti has given up 4 walks in each of his first two outings in 2026.
The return of OF Yordan Alvarez this season has worked wonders for the Astros’ bats, as they are registering the fourth-best wRC+ (118), fourth-best wOBA (.346), and fourth-best ISO (.176) in the league so far.
Yankees vs. Astros Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, April 26
Today's 1.5-run line tabs the Yankees as road favorites. Check out the run line and run total for Sunday afternoon's game.
- Spread: Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: 9.5
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Yankees vs. Astros Prediction on Over/Under – 4/26/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Astros prediction on the total runs for Sunday, April 26.
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- Each of the first two games in this series has reached at least 11 total runs scored.
- Both Gil and Arrighetti struggle with giving up free passes and putting runners on base, and both teams can take advantage of those shortcomings in the power department.
- Although it’s still a smaller sample, the Astros are posting the ninth-best wRC+ (115), 12th-best wOBA (.341), and third-best ISO (.194) across 574 PAs at home this year.
- Against right-handed pitching last season, the Yankees produced the second-best wRC+ (118), best wOBA (.337), and best ISO (.206). They have the second-best wRC+ (119), second-best wOBA (.348), and second-best ISO (.194) in that split to begin this season.
- Once Arrighetti exits the contest, Houston’s bullpen has the eighth-worst xERA (4.60) and worst HR/9 (1.86) to begin 2026.
- As for New York’s relievers, they are putting up the 12th-worst WHIP (1.39) and eighth-worst BABIP (.310).
- When operating as road favorites in 2025, the Yankees had the 10th-highest rate of achieving the over (52.2%).
- The Astros lead the league with the highest rate of reaching the over (71.4%) to begin the 2026 campaign.
Yankees vs. Astros Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/26/26
Here are the top Yankees vs. Astros picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, April 26. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez.
Yankees 1B Ben Rice vs. Astros Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Arrighetti recorded a 5.18 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, and 1.59 HR/9 to lefties in 2025. He’s notching a 6.58 xFIP and 2.00 WHIP in that split to begin 2026.
- Last season, Ben Rice supplied a 141 wRC+, .371 wOBA, and .235 ISO against right-handed pitchers. He boasts a 211 wRC+, .486 wOBA, and .397 ISO in that split this season.
- In the first two games against the Astros in this series, Rice has totaled 5 hits, 4 runs, 3 RBIs, 2 doubles, and 1 HR.
- Rice was No. 2 in New York’s lineup on Saturday, and he’s had 54 of his 105 PAs come out of the cleanup spot this year.
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Astros OF Yordan Alvarez vs. Yankees Projection: 7 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Walks from Gil could prevent Yordan Alvarez from having many opportunities to do damage at the plate, but the left-handed slugger is currently on an 11-game hitting streak.
- During his hot streak, Alvarez has posted 6 multi-hit performances, 8 runs, 4 doubles, 5 HRs, and 12 RBIs.
- In the early going this season, Alvarez is swinging a blazing hot bat, producing a stellar 223 wRC+, .505 wOBA, and .402 ISO over his first 125 PAs.
- Gil possessed a forgettable 6.10 xFIP and 1.45 WHIP against lefties in 2025. He has a 5.85 xFIP and 1.05 WHIP in that split to start 2026.
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A decent number of runs could be put on the scoreboard in Sunday’s Yankees-Astros showdown, especially with both Gil and Arrighetti struggling with walks. Will New York pull the brooms out for the sweep on Sunday?
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