The New York Yankees (3-1) look to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they take on the Seattle Mariners (3-2) in the second of a three-game series on Tuesday, March 31. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET on TBS, with New York returning a 1.88x payout for a win.
On Monday night, Seattle C Cal Raleigh knocked in IF Leo Rivas with one out in the ninth. Tonight, Yankees SP Max Fried (1-0, 6.1 scoreless IP) and Mariners SP Logan Gilbert (no-decision) are slated to take the mound.
Below, we’ll break down our Yankees vs. Mariners prediction and picks for Tuesday’s game. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under
The Yankees opened up the season winning all three games in San Francisco, outscoring the Giants 13-1. The pitching staff was dominant throughout the series, allowing 4 hits over the first two games and holding San Francisco to 1 run on 9 hits in the finale.
It was the first time in major league history that a team was held to 5 hits or fewer with no runs over the first two games of a season.
New York is coming off a 94-win campaign, in which it lost a tiebreaker for the division but won the Wild Card series vs. the rival Boston Red Sox before losing the ALDS to the Toronto Blue Jays.
RF Aaron Judge was the 2025 AL MVP, clobbering 53 HR with an OPS of 1.144. He broke an 0-for-7 slump with his first homer on Friday and followed it up with another on Saturday.
The Mariners, who were 8 outs away from winning the AL Pennant last year, are the favorites to go to the World Series on PrizePicks Team Picks. They've won three of their first five games, including last night’s opener with the Yankees.
Seattle earned a split of a four-game series with the Cleveland Guardians despite 2025 AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh struggling. Raleigh, who led the majors with 60 HRs last year, only had 3 hits in 17 ABs vs. the Guardians with a hard-hit percentage of 0%.
However, Raleigh came in off the bench Monday night vs. the Yankees and drove in a walk-off run.
Yankees vs. Mariners Winner Payout, Over/Under
The Yankees enter Tuesday’s game as favorites, returning a 1.88x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Mariners are the home underdogs with a 1.92x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (2.38x payout)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (1.72x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.88x | Mariners 1.92x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Yankees vs. Mariners Prediction on Over/Under – 3/31/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Yankees vs. Mariners prediction on the over/under for Tuesday, March 31, on PrizePicks.
- The Yankees led the majors last season in runs scored with 849, an average of 5.2 per game. So far this season, despite their 3-1 record, they're only averaging 3.8.
- Seattle was ninth in the majors and fourth in the AL with 4.7 runs per game. So far this year, they're right on pace, averaging 4.8.
- The M’s, who are home underdogs for the second straight night, went 10-4 last year when not favored at home, the second-best rate in baseball (Dodgers, 2-0).
- The Mariners played 88 games that went over the listed total last year, the most in the league. They’ve already played three overs and two unders, including Monday night’s 2-1 win over New York.
- The Yankees were in the middle of the pack a year ago, playing to the tune of 76 overs (15th), 80 unders, and 6 pushes. This season, they have yet to play to an over.
- New York leads all of baseball with a 0.76 ERA, allowing just 3 earned runs over 35.1 innings. The team’s xERA of 2.48 is also the best, while its xFIP of 3.00 is third.
- Seattle owns the third-best ERA at 2.35. The Mariners' xERA of 2.75 is also third, and their xFIP of 3.09 is fourth.
Yankees vs. Mariners Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/31/26
Here are two of the top Yankees vs. Mariners picks to consider for Tuesday, March 31. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Yankees SP Max Fried and Mariners SP Logan Gilbert.
Yankees SP Max Fried vs. Mariners Projection: 34 Pitcher Fantasy Score
- In his first start of 2026, Fried shut down the Giants' offense, allowing 2 hits to the 23 batters he faced.
- The Yankees lefty let his defense do the work, with 74% of plate appearances being put in play. The highest in-play rate for a season for Fried was 70% in 2022 with the Atlanta Braves.
- In eight of his starts in 2025, Fried went 6+ innings without allowing an earned run.
- For his career, Fried has faced the Mariners three times (0-1, 1.59 ERA), allowing 9 hits and 3 runs while holding Seattle to a .153 batting average with 18 Ks and 4 BBs.
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Mariners SP Logan Gilbert vs. Yankees Projection: 17.5 Outs
- In his first start of the year, Gilbert allowed 3 runs over 5.1 innings.
- A year after leading the AL in innings pitched with 208.2 and a WHIP of .887, Gilbert only pitched 131 innings over 25 starts last year, missing seven weeks with an elbow injury.
- For his career, Gilbert has faced the Yankees seven times, going 2-3 with a 6.57 ERA, the highest ERA vs. any opponent that he's faced at least five times.
- While the Yankees have an xBA of .282 against Gilbert, he's struck out Aaron Judge and DH Giancarlo Stanton 10 times in 32 plate appearances.
Make Yankees vs. Mariners Picks on PrizePicks
The Yankees and Mariners square off in a battle of playoff teams from last season, both projected to make the playoffs again in 2026. Can New York rebound from its first loss of the season, or will Seattle earn the series win on Tuesday?
You can make your Yankees vs. Mariners picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. And with Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
