With each passing second, Opening Day for the 2026 MLB season gets closer. Wednesday, March 25’s New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants clash marks the start of a new year, as well as the potential for some home runs.
Last season, a staggering 5,650 balls were clobbered for homers. Now that the offseason is squarely in the rearview mirror, PrizePicks’ MLBSZN board has season-long player projections for who may contribute to a new total moving forward.
That begs the question of who will hit the most home runs in 2026. Make your MLB season predictions on PrizePicks for an opportunity to turn your baseball knowledge into cash if you’re right.
Statistics used are courtesy of FanGraphs or Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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2025 MLB Home Run Leaders
Here’s a quick refresher on which stars led the big leagues in home runs in 2025. Seven players finished with at least 40 homers during the regular season.
With MLBSZN from PrizePicks, you can make 2026 MLB predictions on player home run projections all year long, as well as make picks for hits, RBIs, stolen bases, and more.
- Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh: 60 HR
- Philadelphia Phillies LF Kyle Schwarber: 56 HR
- Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani: 55 HR
- New York Yankees RF Aaron Judge: 53 HR
- Mariners/Arizona Diamondbacks 3B Eugenio Suarez: 49 HR
- Tampa Bay Rays 3B Junior Caminero: 45 HR
- New York Mets RF Juan Soto: 43 HR
Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in 2026?
Without further ado, let’s dive into some possible candidates to hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB season.
New York Yankees RF Aaron Judge
2026 MLBSZN Projection: 49.5 Home Runs
All Rise for Aaron Judge. The back-to-back American League MVP put on yet another elite-level power display this past season, clubbing 53 home runs and 30 doubles. Not only that, but his .688 SLG and 1.144 OPS each led the majors.
Judge is a model of consistency, as his walk rate and strikeout rate varied just 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, year-over-year. He also has a wOBA of .460 or higher in consecutive campaigns. His xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel rate are all in the 100th percentile.
Over the past four years, Judge has averaged 143 games played, 634 PAs, and 52 HRs. If healthy, he might be able to provide an all-world floor as a hitter for yet another season.
More Aaron Judge MLBSZN Projections: 5.5 Multi-HR Games, 113.5 RBIs
Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani
2026 MLBSZN Projection: 48.5 Home Runs
Speaking of multi-time MVPs… how about the defending one, three times over? One of the most transcendent talents ever, Shohei Ohtani has 50+ home runs in consecutive seasons.
Ohtani’s 55-jack effort in 2025 marked a new career high, bringing a league-leading 380 total bases along with it. With an average SLG of .640 and wRC+ of 177 during these MVP runs, it doesn’t get much better than this. Ohtani also has an average ISO of .342 in that span.
Playing home outings at Dodger Stadium, which ranks fifth in park factor in the last two years, is always a plus. Heading into his age-31 season, there could be plenty more historic baseball left in Ohtani’s tank.
More Shohei Ohtani MLBSZN Projections: 4.5 Multi-HR Games, 115.5 RBIs
Philadelphia Phillies LF Kyle Schwarber
2026 MLBSZN Projection: 41.5 Home Runs
The MVP runner-up behind Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber put up a career season in 2025. In 724 PAs, he swatted 56 balls out of the park and set new personal bests for ISO (.323), SLG (.563), xwOBA (.402), and wRC+ (152).
If that wasn’t enough, the underlying metrics also reflect a downright dominant player. A whopping 30 of Schwarber’s homers were dubbed “no doubters,” tied with Ohtani for the most in the sport. Additionally, his 23.5% barrel rate and 58.7% hard hit mark were both 100th-percentile achievements.
Schwarber plays in the sixth-friendliest confines at Citizens Bank Park, and his home-run-to-AB ratio of 10.8 was top-three in the sport last year. Having just turned 33 but coming off a full 162-game season, the bar remains sky-high.
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More Kyle Schwarber MLBSZN Projections: 4.5 Multi-HR Games, 109.5 RBIs
Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh
2026 MLBSZN Projection: 39.5 Home Runs
Let’s get the bad out of the way first. Raleigh’s actual home runs (65, including playoffs) versus his expected home runs (56.1) created a larger discrepancy (8.9) than any MLB player last season. He also outperformed his xBA (.247 to .231) and xSLG (.589 to .547).
The good news is the second-place MVP finisher performed at such a video game-like level that even if regression does hit, his profile remains among baseball’s elite. A 99th-percentile barrel rate and 89th-percentile bat speed made him a lethal breakout player in the batter’s box.
Raleigh also improved vastly against fastballs, going from posting a .224 BA and .445 SLG on those offerings in 2024 to netting .253 and .660 marks in 2025.
Yes, Raleigh may not reach last season’s heights, and his home field factor is the worst in the league at T-Mobile Park. With that said, he’s just 29 years old and had 22 homers in 65 second-half games once he slowed down a bit.
A projection of 39.5 leaves ample wiggle room.
More Cal Raleigh MLBSZN Projections: 3.5 Multi-HR Games, 100.5 RBIs
Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz
2026 MLBSZN Projection: 36.5 Home Runs
Despite playing a slightly abbreviated season’s worth of games at 117, AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz logged 36 home runs in 420 ABs. That 11.7 ratio could’ve been a top-five threshold in the sport had he qualified.
Kurtz was good for 98th-percentile batting run value in his debut, in addition to the same rankings for barrel rate and bat speed. A 95th-percentile xSLG serves as the cherry on top for the only rookie to have an ISO of .300 or higher on the year.
According to The Athletic, Sutter Health Park was baseball’s second-friendliest hitter’s venue a season ago. It even fostered a better environment than the Colorado Rockies’ Coors Field during the day. With Kurtz seemingly ascending, that’s tremendous news.
More Nick Kurtz MLBSZN Projections: 3 Multi-HR Games, 92.5 RBIs
Make 2026 MLB Predictions on PrizePicks
With Opening Day for the MLB season on the horizon, there’s never been a better time to get in on some 2026 predictions than now. Call your shot on totals for home runs, RBIs, and more!
On PrizePicks MLB, you can pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and earn real-money rewards if you’re right. With daily game projections and the MLBSZN board available, there’s plenty to choose from.
Keep it right here with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, news, and analysis throughout the year.
