World Cup Golden Boot Race: How Can Messi Win the Golden Boot?

Spain and Argentina clash for life-long glory in the World Cup Final on Sunday, July 19, at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX. 

Most players dream of this moment — winning a World Cup for their nation in front of the entire world. Lionel Messi did just that in 2022, boosting Argentina to their first title since 1986. 

After earning GOAT status in 2022, Messi chases his second consecutive World Cup title on Sunday afternoon. Plus, he still has a shot at the Golden Boot with 8 goals, though he’s got a tall task ahead after France ST Kylian Mbappé added 2 goals to his 10-goal total on Saturday. 

Can Messi win the Golden Boot? Below, we’ll break down Messi’s chances in the Golden Boot race, including if Messi can score a goal vs. Spain and a promo on PrizePicks.

Make your Argentina and Lionel Messi picks for the World Cup Final on PrizePicks now!

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Can Messi Win the Golden Boot in the World Cup Final vs. Spain?

Messi became the first-ever player to record a goal in six consecutive World Cup knockout matches. However, he’s failed to find the back of the net in back-to-back appearances against Switzerland and England.

That’s made winning the Golden Boot like trying to climb Mount Everest — especially with Kylian Mbappé posting another brace in Saturday’s 6-4 loss vs. England. Mbappé finished the 2026 World Cup with 10 goals, giving him the most goals since Germany’s Gerd Müller tallied 10 in 1970. 

With Mbappé tied for the third-most goals in one World Cup tournament, does Messi have any chance of winning the Golden Boot with a strong performance vs. Spain? PrizePicks Team Picks gives Messi an 11.11x payout to win the Golden Boot, behind Mbappé’s 1.03x payout. 

The GOAT has 8 goals in World Cup 2026, meaning he would need 2 goals to tie Mbappé. A potential tiebreaker looks at goals assisted, followed by the fewest minutes played. 

While Messi failed to score in his last two appearances, he still featured in a prominent role for Argentina. In fact, he was the heartbeat of the attack with 3 assists in the two-match split vs. Switzerland and England. He now carries 4 assists in the tournament, tied with Mbappé’s 4. 

Mbappé posted his fourth assist in the third-place match, meaning he was involved in 3 of France’s 4 goals on Saturday. He’s put the Golden Boot race on expert difficulty for Messi, who fell behind Mbappé for the award in 2022.

When it comes to the fewest minutes, the French striker has 698 minutes through eight matches. Messi currently has 620 minutes. If he plays 90 minutes on Sunday, that puts his total at 710 minutes.

With Messi’s mind focused on a World Cup title above all else, he’s unlikely to leave the field vs. Spain. A brace would not be enough for Messi to win the Golden Boot thanks to a tie in assists and a disadvantage in fewest minutes compared to Mbappé. 

If Messi is to win the Golden Boot, a hat trick is likely required, taking his goal total to 11 and 1 above Mbappé. However, Spain has yielded only 1 goal and 2.1 expected goals (xG) over seven matches. For context, those 2.1 xGs conceded still lead the 48-team field compared to squads that played in only three matches in the group stage. 

Even scoring 1 goal will be a challenge, as PrizePicks has Messi’s 0.5 projected goals listed as a Demon. These are more difficult to win but mean higher payouts, and users can only pick More when selecting Demons.  

That suggests a lower probability for Messi to find the back of the net compared to a standard projection. Argentina continues to play through their legend, with Messi averaging 4.94 shots (97th percentile), 2.61 shots on target (97th percentile), and 76.50 touches per 90 (100th percentile), per FotMob.

He should have his chances to shoot in the World Cup Final, but surpassing Mbappé for the Golden Boot could be too laborious of a task. Yet, can we truly put anything past one of the greatest athletes of all time?

Let’s look at stat projections for Spain vs. Argentina on PrizePicks, featuring a Messi pick and promo for all users.

Lionel Messi Pick, Promo for World Cup Final vs. Spain

Max Discounts are now labeled as Guarantee Picks on PrizePicks. Sunday’s special World Cup Final promo for all users drops Lionel Messi’s standard 35.5 passing attempt projection to 0.5 for a limited time.

This special Guarantee Pick expires at match start — 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 19. Messi has posted 45.0 passes attempted per game, via Opta Analyst. He’s also racked up 76.5 touches per 90 (100th percentile), putting him in a pivotal role with plenty of chances to tally only 1 pass attempt for this Guarantee Pick.

Claim the PrizePicks Lionel Messi Guarantee Pick for Spain vs. Argentina now!

Alongside the Messi Guarantee Pick, let’s look at his full list of stat projections for the World Cup Final vs. Spain. 

• 0.5 Passes Attempted (Guarantee Pick)
• 35.5 Passes Attempted (Standard)
• 3 Shots
• 1.5 Shots on Target (Demon)
• 0.5 Goals (Demon)
• 5.5 Crosses 
• 5 Attempted Dribbles 
• 3 Shots Assisted
• 0.5 Goal + Assist
• 20.5 Fantasy Score

Among his projections, which number stands out for a Lionel Messi pick in the World Cup Final? Could he find success in the goal department to push for the Golden Boot? 

Make your Lionel Messi picks on PrizePicks now!

Argentina ST Lionel Messi vs. Spain: 0.5 Goals (Demon)

As mentioned, Messi’s 0.5-goal projection vs. Spain is a Demon — making this pick more difficult paired with a higher potential payout for your Lineups. Users can only select More on Demon projections. 

• While he’s failed to log a goal in back-to-back games, Messi still posted 2.5 shots per match in the two-game split.
• A hefty role awaits the football legend, proven by 4.94 shots (97th percentile) and 6.24 touches in the box per 90 (80th percentile).
• Messi’s chances of scoring could boil down to possession. Spain’s elite defense holds opponents to only 6.29 shots per match (second-fewest), partially thanks to a 63.9% average possession (third-highest).
• Argentina’s 60.7% average possession is the second-highest among teams in the Semifinals and the sixth-highest of the 48-team field.
• Spain’s toughest possession tests were against Portugal and France, and La Roja logged 55% and 51% possessions in those fixtures. That led to giving up 10.0 shots per match in the two-game split, elevated from Spain’s 6.29 per-game average.
• Further, France and Portugal combined for 15.00 touches in the box per match compared to Spain yielding just 10.14 per match across the tournament (second-fewest). 
• In short, there is a case for the Spanish to give up more shots and touches in the box than usual against an elite team. That bodes well for Messi to gather enough opportunities for a goal, though a hat trick to capture the Golden Boot is unlikely against a team that’s allowed 1 goal over seven matches.

Combine Argentina + Lionel Messi World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

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Make Lionel Messi Picks for Spain vs. Argentina on PrizePicks

Messi may need to snap his two-match scoreless streak to elevate Argentina to back-to-back World Cup titles on Sunday. Spain could give up more shots and possession than usual in a heated World Cup Final, but the tournament’s top defense may stop Messi from collecting the Golden Boot.

Don’t wait until lock — make your Spain vs. Argentina picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.

Pick World Cup players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on World Cup match winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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