Who Will USA Play in the Round of 32? Potential Knockout Stage Opponents

USA has won Group D and qualified for the Round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup. Although the USA doesn’t want to get too ahead of themselves, the Americans will set their sights on their first knockout stage match, as many bench players start tonight vs. Türkiye.

The stars and stripes cruised to wins in their first two matches against Paraguay and Australia to clinch the group ahead of their game versus Türkiye on Thursday night.

USA will play their Round of 32 match on Wednesday, July 1, at 8 p.m. ET in Santa Clara, Calif.

All signs point toward the USA playing Bosnia and Herzegovina in the opening game of the knockout stage; Bosnia is on four points in the group stage, with their win a 3-1 victory over Qatar.

The USMNT will play against the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in the Round of 32. At the moment, Bosnia and Herzegovina is the heavy favorite to be that opponent, according to match projections; but the opponent won’t be confirmed until the group stage concludes on June 27.

Below, we’ll discuss the teams that the USMNT could play in the Round of 32. Additionally, we’ll lay out when and where the USA will play their first knockout match.

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Who Will the USA Play in the Round of 32?

The USA’s exact World Cup Round of 32 opponent is not yet determined. However, the USMNT is guaranteed to play the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J.

As it stands, those third-place teams are:

• Bosnia and Herzegovina (4 points, 1-1-1)
• Ecuador (1 point, 0-1-1) — need a win vs. Germany to qualify
• Sweden (3 points, 1-0-1) — need a win vs. Japan to guarantee qualification
• Senegal (0 points, 0-0-2) — need a convincing win vs. Iraq and help to qualify
• Algeria (3 points, 1-0-1) — need a win vs. Austria to guarantee qualification

Projections from the site World Cup 2026 Predictions, which simulates each World Cup match 20,000 times, put Bosnia and Herzegovina as the USA’s most likely opponent in the Round of 32, with a nearly 100% chance. 

There is only one scenario where the USA will face a team other than Bosnia; that team is Senegal, who is currently sitting on 0 points in Group I.

Despite it being apparent that Bosnia and Herzegovina will almost certainly play the USA in the Knockout Stage, Pochettino’s squad won’t officially know until the top eight third-place teams are confirmed.

The only reason the USA doesn’t officially know their opponent for the Round of 32 is due to the new World Cup format. The 2026 World Cup has 12 groups; the top two teams from each group advance automatically. Beyond that, the eight best third-place teams (out of 12) also move on to the Round of 32.

Once those third-place teams are determined, FIFA’s bracket confirms which third-place team will face the USA.

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When Will the USA Play in the Round of 32?

The USMNT is set to play their Round of 32 match on Wednesday, July 1, at 8 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium (Bay Area Stadium) in Santa Clara, Calif.

The USA will get five days to rest and regroup after the Türkiye match before playing again, which gives F Christian Pulisic more time to get fully fit after missing their Matchday 2 game vs. Australia.

As for the players on a yellow card — Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson, they will have 12 days of rest before suiting up again in the Round of 32 vs. Bosnia or Senegal.

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Where will the USA Play in the Round of 32?

The USMNT’s Round of 32 game will take place in front of a raucous home crowd at Levi’s Stadium (Bay Area Stadium) in Santa Clara, Calif. — the home of the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers. The bracket was built to give the host nation this advantage if they won their group, which Mexico will also benefit from.

If the USA wins their Round of 32 match, they’d play their Round of 16 match at Lumen Field (Seattle Stadium) in Seattle.

Lumen Field is the venue for the Seattle Sounders in the MLS, so there won’t be a shortage of soccer fans cheering on their country if they advance. The USMNT took on Australia in Seattle for their second match of the group stage.

Regardless of who the USMNT plays next, they are a decent-sized favorite to make the Round of 16, with a 1.25x payout on PrizePicks (3.57x payout on No). The USA is also slightly favored to advance to the Quarterfinals, with a 1.75x payout to be one of the final eight teams remaining.

If the USA wins their Round of 32 match, the Americans would face the winner between the Group G winner (Egypt, Belgium, Iran, or New Zealand) or the third-place team from Group A, H, I, or J.

Currently, Egypt is the favorite to win Group G, as they just need a win or a draw against Iran on Friday to win the group. Meanwhile, the potential third-place teams from Group A, H, I, and J are South Korea, Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Iraq, Austria, and Algeria.

Of those teams listed, Iraq is the lowest-ranked team (45th) in our updated power rankings, so fans should be rooting for them to be the USA’s foe in the Round of 16, beginning with a lopsided win over Senegal on Friday.

According to worldcup2026predictions.app, the most likely Round of 16 opponents for the USMNT are:

• South Korea — 36%
• Egypt — 20%
• Belgium — 15%
• Iran — 14%

Looking even further ahead, the four most likely quarterfinals opponents for the USA are Spain (60%), Portugal (14%), Colombia (8%), and Croatia (5%), per the World Cup Predictions app.

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How is the USA’s Round of 32 opponent determined?

The USMNT’s Round of 32 opponent is determined by the World Cup third-place qualification table. Find the latest third-place standings here.

Here’s the simple version:

1. All third-place teams are ranked by points, then goal differential, then goals scored.
2. The top eight third-place teams advance to the Round of 32.
3. FIFA looks at which groups those eight teams came from.
4. A preset bracket assigns each third-place team to a Round of 32 matchup.

That’s why the USA’s opponent for the Round of 32 is predetermined to be a third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J.

There is no draw after the group stage. FIFA’s bracket is already set in stone, and the USA’s opponents are dependent on which third-place teams qualify.

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The 2026 World Cup is approaching the knockout stage, with the conclusion of the group stage just two days away. Once the World Cup advances to the Round of 32, it will be a win-or-go-home scenario for each team still alive — including the USA.

As the winner of Group D, the USMNT has already punched their ticket to the Round of 32, and they’re expected to face Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 1. That being said, the USA’s next opponent is not officially confirmed until the third-place teams are selected.

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