World Cup Round of 32 Qualifying Scenarios: How Each Team Can Qualify

The group stage of the 2026 World Cup is nearing a close, and in every group, there are teams still vying for a spot in the knockout stage — or the Round of 32 — ahead of Matchday 3. 

Some teams, like USA and Mexico, have already punched their ticket to the Round of 32 and now await their opponent, while others are already eliminated, solely playing their Matchday 3 for pride.

With each World Cup team prepared to play the final group stage match, let’s take a look at the Round of 32 qualifying scenarios, upcoming matches, and what each team needs to qualify for the Round of 32.

We’ll also include relevant World Cup Group winner payouts from PrizePicks Team Picks — a prediction market available in 35 states, including California, Florida, and Texas!

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2026 World Cup Teams Round of 32 Qualifiers for Knockout Stage

Here are the teams that have already qualified for the Round of 32 knockout stage at the 2026 World Cup. This will be updated through Matchday 3.

Last updated: Wednesday, June 24 – 11:05 p.m. ET

• Mexico – Group A Winner (3-0-0)
• South Africa – Group A Runner-up
• Switzerland – Group B Winner (2-1-0)
• Canada – Group B Runner-Up (1-1-1)
• Brazil – Group C Winner (2-1-0, +6 GD)
• Morocco – Group C Runner-Up (2-1-0, +3 GD)
• USA – Clinched Group D (2-0-0)
• Germany – Clinched Group E (2-0-0)
• Argentina – Clinched Group J (2-0-0)
• France – Qualified, Group I (2-0-0)
• Norway – Qualified, Group I (2-0-0)
• Colombia – Qualified, Group K (2-0-0)

World Cup Teams Eliminated from Advancing

Here are the teams that have been eliminated from the 2026 World Cup and cannot advance to the knockout stage. This will be updated through Matchday 3.

• Czechia – Group A
• Qatar – Group B
• Haiti – Group C
• Turkiye – Group D
• Tunisia – Group F
• Jordan – Group J
• Panama – Group L

World Cup Group D Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

The USMNT has already won Group D and qualified for the knockout stage. They will face the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in the Round of 32.

The final Group D matches are set for Thursday, June 25, at 10 p.m. ET.

Who will USA face in the Round of 32?

USA is almost certain to face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32, with a > 99% chance as of writing. USA will play their Round of 32 match on Thursday, July 2.

See more details here:

Additionally, USA is set to face either Egypt or Cape Verde in the Round of 16, as it stands.

How Can Australia Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Australia can earn a spot in the knockout stage by securing a win or a draw against Paraguay. On PrizePicks Team Picks, Australia has a 1.07x payout to qualify.

How Can Paraguay Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Defeating Australia would guarantee qualification for Paraguay, but a draw would give them a chance of advancing as a third-place team. Paraguay has a 1.12x payout to qualify from Group D.

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World Cup Group E Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

Germany has already won Group E and qualified for the knockout stage. They will face the third-place team from Group A, B, C, D, or F in the Round of 32.

The final Group E matches are set for Thursday, June 25, at 4 p.m. ET.

How Can the Ivory Coast Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

The Ivory Coast can guarantee qualification with a win or a draw over Curacao.

How Can Ecuador Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Ecuador would have a chance to qualify as a third-place team with a win over Germany. There’s also a chance (albeit a slim one) that they can guarantee qualification with a win and a loss by the Ivory Coast.

How Can Curacao Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Curacao would need to defeat the Ivory Coast to have a chance to advance as a third-place team. Additionally, Curacao can finish in second in Group E with a win and a win/draw from Germany.

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World Cup Group F Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

No team in Group F has guaranteed qualification yet, though Japan and Netherlands are significant favorites to advance. Netherlands is the favorite to win the group.

The final Group F matches are on Thursday, June 25, at 7 p.m. ET.

How Can the Netherlands Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

The Netherlands can guarantee qualification with a win or a draw against Tunisia. PrizePicks Team Picks has a 1.23x payout for the Netherlands to win Group F.

How Can Japan Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

A win or a draw for Japan against Sweden would guarantee qualification for the Blue Samurai.

How Can Sweden Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Sweden needs to defeat Japan to guarantee qualification, though a draw would give them an opportunity to advance as a third-place team. On PrizePicks Team Picks, Sweden has a 1.04x payout to qualify from Group F.

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World Cup Group G Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

No team in Group G has guaranteed qualification yet, though Egypt sits atop the group with four points. The group will be decided in a pair of matches on Friday, June 26, at 11 p.m. ET.

How Can Egypt Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Egypt can guarantee a spot in the knockout stage with a draw against Iran. PrizePicks Team Picks has Egypt carrying a 1.53x payout to win Group G.

How Can Iran Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Iran can qualify for the knockout stage by defeating Egypt. A draw would make it difficult for Iran to advance as a third-place team, and they have a 1.63x payout to qualify from Group G.

How Can Belgium Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Belgium needs to defeat New Zealand to guarantee qualification against New Zealand. PrizePicks Team Picks has Belgium holding a 1.03x payout to qualify from Group G.

How Can New Zealand Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

New Zealand would need to beat Belgium to have a chance of advancing as a third-place team, while winning and Iran losing would guarantee them qualification.

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World Cup Group H Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

No team in Group H has guaranteed qualification yet, though Spain is a strong favorite eto win the group. Group H will wrap up play on Friday, June 26, at 8 p.m. ET.

How Can Spain Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

A win or a draw is all Spain needs to guarantee qualification for the knockout stage. Spain is a favorite to win Group H, with a 1.11x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks.

How Can Uruguay Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Uruguay needs to beat Spain to guarantee qualification, while a draw would give them a chance to advance as a third-place team.

How Can Cape Verde Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Cape Verde can advance to the knockout stage with a win over Saudi Arabia, while a draw would give them a chance to advance as a third-place team. PrizePicks Team Picks has a 1.36x payout for Cape Verde to qualify from Group H.

How Can Saudi Arabia Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Beating Cape Verde would at least give Saudi Arabia a chance to advance as a third-place team. A win over Cape Verde and a Uruguay loss to Spain would give Saudi Arabia automatic qualification.

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World Cup Group I Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

Both France and Norway have already qualified from Group I, but a winner has yet to be decided. The two sides will decide the Group I winner on Friday, June 26, at 3 p.m. ET.

How Can France Win Group I?

France can win Group I by either defeating or drawing against Norway. PrizePicks Team Picks has a 1.19x payout for France to win Group I.

How Can Norway Win Group I?

Norway can emerge as the winner of Group I by winning outright vs. France.

How Can Senegal Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Not only will Senegal need to defeat Iraq convincingly, but they’ll need to get help elsewhere to advance as a third-place team with only 3 points.

How Can Iraq Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Similar to Senegal, Iraq needs a lopsided win to have any chance of advancing as a third-place team.

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World Cup Group J Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

Argentina has already won Group J and qualified for the knockout stage. They will face the runners-up in Group H in the Round of 32.

How Can Austria Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Austria can guarantee qualification with a win or a draw against Algeria. At the moment, Austria carries a 1.02x payout to qualify from Group J.

How Can Algeria Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

A win over Austria would guarantee qualification for Algeria, while a draw would open the door for them to potentially advance as a third-place team.

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World Cup Group K Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

Colombia has already qualified from Group K, but a winner has yet to be decided. In one of the most anticipated matches of the group, Colombia vs. Portugal will decide the group winner on Saturday, June 27, at 7:30 p.m. ET, in Miami.

How Can Colombia Win Group K?

Colombia can win Group K by earning a win or a draw against Portugal. PrizePicks Team Picks has a 1.96x payout for Colombia to win Group K.

How Can Portugal Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

A win or a draw against Colombia would guarantee qualification for Portugal, while a lopsided loss (and a win by DR Congo) would make things interesting for them as a third-place team. Portugal is the favorite to win Group K, with a 1.75x payout on PrizePicks.

How Can DR Congo Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

At the very least, DR Congo needs to defeat Uzbekistan to have a chance to advance as a third-place team, but a lopsided win is needed to improve their odds. DR Congo owns a 1.69x payout to qualify from Group K.

How Can Uzbekistan Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Uzbekistan needs a convincing win to have any chance of advancing as a third-place team. There’s also a scenario where Uzbekistan is already eliminated by the time they face DR Congo.

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World Cup Group L Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

No team in Group H has guaranteed qualification yet; England is tied with Ghana on top the group with four points each.

How Can England Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

England just needs a win or a draw against Panama to qualify for the knockout stage. PrizePicks Team Picks has a 1.11x payout for England to win Group L. They currently are atop the group based on goal differential (+2 to Ghana's +1)

How Can Ghana Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Ghana can guarantee qualification with a win or a draw against Croatia. There’s still a chance Ghana wins Group L with a win and an upset loss from England.

How Can Croatia Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Croatia needs to defeat Ghana to guarantee a spot in the knockout stage, while a draw would give them a chance of advancing as a third-place team with 4 points. Currently, Croatia has a 1.03x payout to qualify for the Round of 32 from Group L.

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World Cup Group A Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

World Cup Group A play is now complete, with Mexico defeating Czechia, 3-0, and South Africa upsetting South Korea, 1-0, to secure their spot in the Round of 32.

Group A Qualifiers: Mexico, South Africa

Group B 3rd Place: South Korea

Here are the qualifying scenarios for each group at the 2026 World Cup, starting with Group A.

Mexico has already won Group A and qualified for the knockout stage. They will face the third-place team from Group C, E, F, H, or I in the Round of 32.

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How Can South Korea Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

South Korea is currently the second-place team in Group A. For South Korea to qualify for the knockout stage, they’d need either a win or a draw against South Africa in their final game.

According to PrizePicks Team Picks, South Korea is a favorite to advance to the knockout stage, holding a 1.03x payout.

How Can Czechia Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

For Czechia to guarantee qualification, they’d need to defeat Mexico, and South Africa would need to beat South Korea. There’s also a scenario in which Czechia advances with a win and finishes as one of the top eight third-place teams.

How Can South Africa Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Similar to Czechia, South Africa realistically needs to secure a win over South Korea and have Mexico defeat Czechia.

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World Cup Group B Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

World Cup Group B play is now complete, as Switzerland defeated Canada, 2-1, and Bosnia won vs. Qatar, 3-1.

Group B Qualifiers: Switzerland, Canada

Group B 3rd Place: Bosnia & Herzegovina

No team in Group B has guaranteed qualification for the Round of 32 yet, however, Canada and Switzerland are strong favorites to qualify based on points and goal differential.

How Can Canada Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Canada can win Group B and advance to the knockout stage with a win over Switzerland, while they would automatically qualify with a draw. Currently, Canada has a 1.58x payout to win Group B on PrizePicks Team Picks.

How Can Switzerland Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Similar to Canada, Switzerland would win Group B with a win over Canada, and a draw would guarantee qualification for both teams.

How Can Bosnia and Herzegovina Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

There’s still an extremely slim chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina can guarantee qualification with a convincing win over Qatar and a massive loss by either Canada or Switzerland.

Regardless of the Canada and Switzerland outcome, Bosnia’s best chance is to win by a large margin and earn a third-place advancement.

How Can Qatar Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Qatar’s best shot at qualifying for the knockout stage is to defeat Bosnia by a ton of goals and finish as the third-place team in Group B.

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World Cup Group C Qualifying Scenarios for Round of 32

Group C Qualifiers: Brazil, Morocco

Group C 3rd Place: Scotland

No team in Group C has guaranteed qualification yet, though Brazil and Morocco are the clear favorites to win the group, while Haiti has been eliminated.

How Can Brazil Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Brazil can guarantee qualification with a win or a draw against Scotland. Even with Morocco on their tail, Brazil carries a 1.38x payout to win Group C.

How Can Morocco Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Morocco can earn a spot in the knockout stage by beating or drawing against Haiti.

How Can Scotland Qualify for the World Cup Knockout Stage?

Scotland would guarantee qualification with a win over Brazil, but they can still draw and advance as one of the top third-place teams. It should be noted that Scotland has a 1.26x payout to qualify out of Group C.

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Several World Cup teams have already punched their ticket to the Round of 32, and many more spots in the Knockout Stage are up for grabs over the next four days in Matchday 3. 

Don't miss out on the action as 16 teams will officially be eliminated ahead of the knockout stage in in the 2026 World Cup 

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