Every team has played a match at the 2026 World Cup, and we now have an idea of how teams are trending. Some nations have exceeded early expectations, while others have left us scratching our heads a bit.
New data allows us to adjust our PrizePicks World Cup Power Rankings. Follow along as we analyze which nations are trending in the right directiion and which ones might be headed for a shorter tournament than they hoped for.
With the group stage’s Matchday 1 fully completed, it’s time to see what World Cup teams’ stock has fluctuated in our power rankings. We also look at who has cemented their profiles as true contenders, including their payouts to win the World Cup on PrizePicks Team Picks.
During World Cup 2026, you can make real-money predictions on game winners, players, over/unders, and more — including which teams will win their groups or advance to the knockout stage on PrizePicks Team Picks.
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2026 World Cup Power Rankings: Updated Stock Watch After Matchday 1
Here are our updated 2026 World Cup power rankings for all 48 teams as we head into the second round of group stage fixtures.
Use this power rankings to help make your World Cup predictions on PrizePicks — and stay dialed in for picks and predictions for every World Cup game from our soccer experts.
- France
- Argentina
- England
- Spain
- Germany
- Netherlands
- Brazil
- Morocco
- Colombia
- Norway
- United States
- Portugal
- Japan
- Mexico
- South Korea
- Uruguay
- Croatia
- Ivory Coast
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Senegal
- Belgium
- Ecuador
- Scotland
- Australia
- Austria
- Türkiye
- Canada
- Egypt
- Ghana
- Iran
- Panama
- Bosnia
- Czechia
- Cape Verde
- Congo
- Saudi Arabia
- New Zealand
- Paraguay
- Algeria
- Haiti
- Qatar
- Uzbekistan
- Jordan
- Iraq
- South Africa
- Curacao
- Tunisia
2026 World Cup Power Rankings: Stock Up
While multiple nations made strong cases for themselves on Matchday 1, there were two in particular who stood out.
Here are the countries whose stock improved the most after the first round of fixtures.
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Morocco: From 15 to 8
Morocco to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 33.33x | No N/A
After being the dark horse of the 2022 World Cup, many wondered if Morocco could continue winning when teams were expecting them. While they didn’t beat Brazil, they showed they belong in the conversation of the best sides in the tournament.
Ismael Saibari showed why Bayern Munich are about to buy him, and Achraf Hakimi displayed that he’s just fine after injury concerns. But it was 18-year-old midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi who stole the show, bossing the midfield like a seasoned veteran and linking defense and attack.
This Moroccan side might actually be more dangerous than the previous version.
United States: From 20 to 11
USA to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
Paraguay allowed just 10 goals in 18 World Cup qualification matches. They got ripped apart for 4 by the USMNT.
Mauricio Pochettino unleashed a set of tactics we’d not yet seen with this American side, and it worked to near perfection. Folarin Balogun scored the first American brace at the World Cup in nearly a century, and their counter-press prevented Paraguay from getting any room to breathe.
Combined with Türkiye's loss, the Americans now have a nice outlook for winning the group and getting a more favorable path to open the knockout rounds.
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2026 World Cup Power Rankings: Stock Down
Quite a few nations fell short of lofty expectations heading into the tournament.
These two in particular not only failed to achieve their expected results, but also showed serious flaws that could lead to continual failure.
Portugal: From 5 to 12
Portugal to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 9.09x | No 1.05x
Roberto Martinez wasted Belgium’s “golden generation,” and he’s threatening to do the same with Portugal’s talented squad because he’s not brave enough to bench Cristiano Ronaldo.
The aging forward was more of a passenger vs. Congo, and it’s clear that his presence on the pitch is hindering their ability to score goals. His positioning and movement are poor, as he selfishly attempted to score on a cut-back pass that would’ve led to an easy Bruno Fernandes finish had he let it go past.
Portugal's loyalty to their longtime legend may be their undoing if they have another performance like that against Uzbekistan.
Türkiye: From 11 to 27
Türkiye to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 33.33x | No N/A
Türkiye has two of the best young attacking players in the world but decided not to start Kenan Yıldız against Australia. But it might not have mattered, as poor as they looked.
After 30 shots, they had 0 goals and 0 points to show for it. Their defense looked slow, and Australia hurt them twice with longballs leading to goals.
This is a team with far too many talented players to perform that poorly, but if you can’t finish chances, you’re not going to win matches. They have to turn it around quick against Paraguay or risk a group-stage exit.
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Who Are the Real 2026 World Cup Contenders?
Four teams have separated themselves from the pack, both in our power rankings and in the PrizePicks Team Picks payouts for the World Cup.
These four nations could be the most likely nations to win the 2026 World Cup, according to the implied odds, and they just happen to be the four squads that have stood out the most.
France
France to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 4.54x | No 1.19x
It took Didier Deschamps 45 minutes to figure out that having both Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé playing centrally just wasn’t working.
As soon as he shifted Michael Olise into the No. 10 role, the French attack was suddenly unlocked and they overwhelmed the Ivory Coast.
A devastating 45 minutes followed, and they reminded us why they might be the best team in the world.
Argentina
Argentina to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 7.14x | No 1.08x
Lionel Messi showed that while he’s not able to run the way he used to, he can still turn any moment into magic.
His first career World Cup hat trick pulled him level with the career goalscoring record for the competition, and papered over the cracks of some defensive lapses against Algeria.
That said, Argentina has now conceded 1 goal in eight matches and look just as dangerous as four years ago.
England
England to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 6.25x | No 1.11x
Thomas Tuchel showed that he might have known what he was doing with his team selection. Harry Kane looks absolutely locked in, and England looked more like a Premier League side vs. Croatia than an international one.
If they clear up the defensive lapses — and the dropped saves by Jordan Pickford — they could have a real chance of bringing football home.
Spain
Spain to Win 2026 World Cup: Yes 6.25x | No 1.11x
Spain still has the talent to win it all, but there were some warning signs in their scoreless draw vs Cape Verde.
Pedri was surprisingly poor and committed quite a few turnovers. Mikel Oyarzabal was a bystander, going without a touch in the first 30 minutes. They looked lost in attack without Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams in the wide areas.
However, as soon as Yamal came into the match, Spain looked much more dangerous. Could there be a bounce-back performance against Saudi Arabia?
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With two more group stage matches to go for each nation, there’s still plenty of time for teams to stake a claim to a place in the Round of 32. Will any of them make a big enough statement to also rise in our power rankings?
You can make your World Cup winner predictions and more 2026 World Cup picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money on World Cup games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct.
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Stick around with the Playbook for continued World Cup predictions, picks, and analysis through the end of the tournament.
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