Another day, another exciting bowl matchup for college football fans to celebrate. Tuesday’s bout between Western Kentucky (8-4) and Southern Miss (7-5) in the New Orleans Bowl (5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) sees the CUSA and Sun Belt conferences collide.
Adding even more intrigue to the game, both sides come into Tuesday on losing streaks. The Hilltoppers have dropped two in a row by a combined six points, whereas the Golden Eagles are 0-3 in their last three with a -44 point differential. Which program can stop its run of poor play?
Here, we’ll break down a Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss prediction and picks for the New Orleans Bowl. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game for player projections on QB Rodney Tisdale and others.
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Tuesday marks just the fifth time Western Kentucky and Southern Miss will meet in their history. Since 2012, the Hilltoppers command a 4-0 series lead, including a narrow 10-7 triumph back in 2020.
Fortunately for fans of both sides, opt-outs aren’t a major story for the New Orleans Bowl. It is worth noting, however, that Blake Anderson is taking over as head coach for Southern Miss with Charles Huff headed to Memphis.
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Over/Under, Spread
The Hilltoppers enter Tuesday’s game as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 1.81x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Golden Eagles are underdogs with a 1.88x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5
- Over/Under: 59.5
- Game Winner Payout: Hilltoppers 1.81x | Golden Eagles 1.88x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss.
- Western Kentucky went 9-3 against the spread this season, tied with San Diego State for the seventh-best cover rate (75%) in the country.
- The Hilltoppers routinely avoid long third downs, ranking in the 78th percentile in average distance, per Game on Paper.
- Defensively, WKU is 58th in scoring but ranks ninth on fourth downs with a 36% conversion rate allowed.
- Southern Miss ranked 41st in scoring during the regular season (29.1 PPG), slotting in at 46th in yards per play at 5.7.
- The Golden Eagles’ defense is dreadful on third downs, ranking 115th with a 45.12% hit rate yielded.
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss New Orleans Bowl Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss picks to consider for the New Orleans Bowl. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Rodney Tisdale and Braylon Braxton and RB Jeffery Pittman.
Western Kentucky QB Rodney Tisdale vs. Southern Miss Projection: 249.5 Pass Yards
- In games eight through 12 this season, Tisdale averaged 241.2 passing yards per game with 8 TDs and 6 INTs in that span.
- Tisdale’s two most recent starts against LSU and Jacksonville State saw him combine for just 308 yards with no TDs and 3 picks.
- Out of 132 qualified passers, per Game on Paper, the freshman ranks 115th in EPA per dropback at 0.08.
- Southern Miss ranks in the 93rd percentile in explosive passes and 78th percentile in pass EPA per play allowed.
Southern Miss QB Braylon Braxton vs. Western Kentucky Projection: 271.5 Pass Yards
- In his first year with the Golden Eagles, Braxton averaged 254.2 passing yards per game while leading the conference with 23 TDs.
- The senior put up 271.3 passing yards per game in his last four, including a 400-yard detonation against South Alabama on Nov. 22.
- Braxton’s 4.64 yards per dropback puts him 45th in the same 132-player group as Tisdale.
- Via Game on Paper, Western Kentucky’s defense is 45th in pass EPA per play but is 120th in passing plays faced per game.
Southern Miss RB Jeffery Pittman vs. Western Kentucky Projection: 51.5 Rush Yards
- In his debut campaign in the Sun Belt, Pittman set career-highs for rush attempts (146), yards (650), and TDs (8).
- Among 259 qualified rushers, Pittman ranks 62nd in EPA per rush (0.11) and 78th in success rate (45.6%).
- Per Pro Football Focus, out of 34 Sun Belt RBs with 50+ rushes, Pittman’s 79.6 Elusive Rating is 10th.
- Western Kentucky’s defense ranks 122nd with an average of 5.1 yards per rush allowed, also sitting 104th in yards per game at 183.4.
Make Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Picks on PrizePicks
Bowl season is off and running, and Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss is far from the only matchup worth following. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on the action.
Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football predictions, picks, and news.
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