An exciting ACC matchup arrives on Saturday when the #13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons head to Dallas to take on the SMU Mustangs at 12 p.m. ET. Ahead of Saturday's kickoff, the Mustangs are narrow 1.5-point favorites on PrizePicks.
Wake Forest is 8-1 overall, including 5-1 in conference play. The Demon Deacons have won six straight since their September loss to Miami. SMU is 7-2 overall and 5-2 in the ACC. The Mustangs bounced back from a narrow loss to Syracuse with a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech.
Wake Forest can strengthen its at-large résumé and keep its conference title hopes on track here. For SMU, this is essentially a must-win if it wants to stay alive in the ACC race. According to ESPN, the two sides hold respective College Football Playoff chances of 52.0% and 4.4% as of Friday night.
Below, we'll break down our Wake Forest vs. SMU prediction and picks for Saturday's ACC showdown, including the spread, over/under, and key player projections for PrizePicks.
Make your Wake Forest vs. SMU picks on PrizePicks now!
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#13 Wake Forest vs. SMU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, November 14
SMU enters Saturday's matchup as a 1.5-point home favorite against Wake Forest, returning a 1.81x payout if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for Wake Forest vs. SMU on PrizePicks.
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Wake Forest vs. SMU prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.
Wake Forest has arguably the most explosive offense in college football, averaging 43.3 points and 487.7 total yards per game. The Demon Deacons have been productive in both phases, averaging 311.9 passing yards and 175.8 rushing yards.
They've also been remarkably consistent during their recent winning streak, scoring at least 38 in each of their last five games.
SMU has tons of offensive firepower of its own. The Mustangs average 37.0 PPG and 475.8 YPG, with QB Kevin Jennings helping lead the way by completing 73.9% of his passes for 2,764 yards and 25 TDs.
The Mustangs have plenty at stake, too. They're not currently in the CFP rankings, but a win over a top-15 opponent would go a long way toward keeping them in the conference championship conversation. With a road matchup against Notre Dame next week, SMU has little room for error.
Injury-wise, Wake Forest will be without OL Dalton DeBoer, OL Tolu Olajide, WR Elijah Otieno, TE Landon Morris, and DB Devin Cook. QB Gio Lopez is listed as probable.
SMU has a longer list of absences, including RB Link Rhodes, WR Carterrious Brown, and several defensive players.
Safeties Ahmaad Moses and Jaden Milliner-Jones are listed as questionable and are particularly important against this explosive Wake Forest passing attack.
Wake Forest vs. SMU Prediction on Spread – 11/14/26
Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Wake Forest vs. SMU pick against the spread for Saturday, November 14.
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from College Football Ratings, CFBStats, or PFF.
- Wake Forest has been the more efficient offense this season, ranking first nationally in offensive EPA per play (0.30), compared to SMU at 17th (0.18).
- The Demon Deacons have been especially effective at staying ahead of the chains. Their offense owns a 58.4% success rate on late downs, second-best in the country.
- Turnovers are another area where Wake Forest has the edge. The Demon Deacons own a +4 margin compared to SMU's -4 mark. With two productive offenses that can score at will, avoiding short fields and giving away possessions could be the difference.
- Wake Forest also has a slight defensive advantage, sitting 40th nationally in net-adjusted EPA/play (-0.08) versus SMU at 77th (0.01).
- The Demon Deacons have done a fantastic job in the return game, slotting in at 27th in average starting field position (own 32).
Lock in your Wake Forest vs. SMU prediction on PrizePicks.
Wake Forest vs. SMU Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/14/26
Here are two Wake Forest vs. SMU player projections to consider for Saturday's ACC showdown. Today's PrizePicks college football picks focus on QB Kevin Jennings and WR Carlos Hernandez.
SMU QB Kevin Jennings vs. Wake Forest: 286.5 Pass Yards
- Jennings is averaging 307.1 passing yards per game, comfortably above this projection. He's also coming off consecutive 350-yard performances against Syracuse and Virginia Tech.
- The senior signal-caller has been extremely efficient while also netting 9.77 yards per attempt. This gives him a nice combination of consistent yardage generation with explosive play upside.
- The Wake Forest defense has been better against the run than the pass, sitting 32nd in EPA/rush (-0.05) but 59th in EPA/pass (0.03).
- The Demon Deacons are just 99th in defensive success rate (45.9%).
Add Kevin Jennings + SMU to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Wake Forest WR Carlos Hernandez vs. SMU: 93.5 Rec Yards
- Hernandez has been one of the most productive receivers in the ACC, averaging 105 YPG.
- The star wideout has shown ceiling against quality competition, going for 194 yards vs. Louisville, 117 vs. NC State, and 136 vs. Virginia.
- Hernandez is the #1 target in the most explosive passing offense in college football. The Demon Deacons are first nationally in EPA/dropback (0.45) and now face a middling pass defense ranked 61st in EPA/pass (0.04).
- This matchup could be incredibly explosive, and that's precisely the environment Hernandez and his 9.1 aDOT (average depth of target) can exploit.
Add Carlos Hernandez + Wake Forest to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Saturday's ACC showdown has major implications for the College Football Playoff race. Wake Forest is looking to move into the projected playoff field, while SMU needs a statement win to keep its conference championship hopes alive.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Wake Forest vs. SMU picks on PrizePicks now.
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