One of the most action-packed days of the college football calendar for the month of December is here. The penultimate matchup of Saturday, No. 19 Virginia vs. Missouri in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, kicks off from EverBank Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Fresh off a 10-3 stretch prior to their bowl, the Cavaliers have been dominant with head coach Tony Elliott at the helm. The 8-4 Tigers, meanwhile, declined for the third year in a row but peaked as high as 14th in the AP poll this season.
Here, we’ll break down a Virginia vs. Missouri prediction and picks for the Gator Bowl. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game for player projections on QB Chandler Morris and others.
Virginia vs. Missouri Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Saturday marks just the second time Virginia and Missouri will square off in their history. The initial meeting was way back in 1973, when the Tigers emerged with a triumphant 31-7 victory.
As far as absences are concerned, Cavaliers WR Trell Harris got hurt in the ACC Championship Game. Multiple backups entered the transfer portal. For Missouri, QB Beau Pribula announced his intent to enter the portal over a week ago.
Virginia vs. Missouri Over/Under, Spread
The Cavaliers enter Saturday’s game as 3.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.38x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Tigers are favorites with a 1.51x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Missouri Tigers -3.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Game Winner Payout: Cavaliers 2.38x | Tigers 1.51x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Virginia vs. Missouri Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Virginia vs. Missouri.
- Both Virginia and Missouri have performed well against the spread this year. The Cavaliers went 8-5, with the Tigers posting a 6-5-1 mark.
- Virginia enters the Gator Bowl ranking 30th in per-game scoring (30.3 PPG) and 50th in points per play (0.408).
- On defense, the Cavs were 25th in scoring (20.9 PPG) and 22nd in yards per play (4.8).
- Missouri’s offense is a night-and-day group, sitting 15th in yards per rush (5.3) but 96th in yards per pass (6.5).
- Defensively, the Tigers are dominant, sitting seventh in yards per game (279.2) and 23rd in scoring (20.6 PPG).
Virginia vs. Missouri Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime Virginia vs. Missouri picks to consider for the Gator Bowl. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Chandler Morris and Matt Zollers.
Virginia QB Chandler Morris vs. Missouri Projection: 222.5 Pass Yards
- Morris averaged 215.5 passing yards per game during his debut season with the Cavaliers. Across his last three outings, that number was 238.0.
- Per Game on Paper, Morris’ 1,419 sack-adjusted yards rank 39th out of 132 qualified field generals.
- A key matchup to watch is late downs. Virginia’s offense ranks in the 93rd percentile in shortest distance faced on third down, via Game on Paper.
- Although Missouri’s pass defense is third in sack percentage at 9.66, Virginia’s offense is 17th with a sack allowance clip of 3.90%.
Missouri QB Matt Zollers vs. Virginia Projection: 152.5 Pass Yards
- Across his last three appearances this season, Zollers averaged a measly 109.9 passing yards. That came with a 48.3% completion rate.
- On the year, Missouri’s passing attack is 109th in per-game yards (182) and 110th in sack rate (8.08%).
- According to Pro Football Focus, among 193 QBs with 75+ dropbacks, Zollers’ 1.3% big-time throw rate is tied for 185th.
- Virginia’s pass defense ranks 19th in EPA per play at -0.13 and 14th in success rate at 36.8%.
Make #19 Virginia vs. Missouri Gator Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
As bowl season rolls on, Virginia vs. Missouri picks for the Gator Bowl are far from the only ones on the table. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on the action for every key matchup.
Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football predictions, picks, and news.
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