UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Thursday, November 5

Thursday, November 5's college football action for Week 10 features an important American Conference matchup as the UTSA Roadrunners travel to Boca Raton to take on the Florida Atlantic Owls at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. According to PrizePicks, UTSA is favored by 7.5 points on the spread.

UTSA enters Thursday's matchup with a 7-1 overall record and a perfect 4-0 mark in conference play. The Roadrunners have won five consecutive games, including a convincing 42-19 road victory over Tulane on October 24.

FAU has been considerably more inconsistent. The Owls are 5-3 overall and 2-2 in conference play after dropping a 48-41 shootout against North Texas last Thursday.

Below, we'll break down our UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic prediction and picks for Thursday's Week 10 CFB game, including the spread for PrizePicks.

Make your UTSA vs. FAU picks on PrizePicks now!

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UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, November 5

UTSA enters Thursday's game as a 7.5-point favorite against Florida Atlantic, returning a 1.35x payout if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for UTSA vs. FAU. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your UTSA vs. FAU prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from College Football Ratings, CFBStats, Game on Paper, or PFF.

UTSA has been one of the more balanced teams in the American this season, averaging 33.5 points and 409.3 total yards per game. The Roadrunners are particularly effective on the ground, averaging 184.9 rushing yards per contest and 5.1 yards per carry.

RB Will Henderson III has led the way, recording 664 rushing yards and 5 TDs on 109 carries. He's averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and is coming off a 102-yard performance against Tulane. According to PrizePicks, Henderson is projected for 89.5 rushing yards tonight.

The Roadrunners also have contributions from RB Brandon High Jr. (289 yards) and RB A'Marion Peterson (354 yards) in the run game.

QB Owen McCown has been efficient as well, throwing for 1,751 yards and 10 TDs while completing 69.5% of his passes. However, UTSA's offensive identity is built around its ability to establish the run and create manageable passing situations.

Defensively, the Roadrunners allow 26.0 points and 391.5 total yards per game. They have been particularly effective against the pass, surrendering about 208 passing yards per contest. Their biggest concern has been defending the run, where opponents are averaging 183.6 yards per game.

FAU has been much more explosive offensively, averaging 37.8 points and 439.8 total yards per game. The Owls rank among the nation's best passing offenses, averaging 329.6 passing yards per contest.

Veltkamp has been outstanding, throwing for 2,536 yards and 23 (!) TDs through eight games. He's completing 71.8% of his passes and averaging 317.0 passing yards per game. His favorite target has been WR Ethan Messer, who leads the team with 898 receiving yards and 9 TDs.

FAU's problem has been its defense. The Owls are allowing 35.8 points and 468.9 total yards per game. Their biggest weakness is stopping the run, where opponents are averaging an astonishing 255.1 yards per contest and 6.2 yards per carry.

That's a particularly concerning matchup against a UTSA offense that has averaged more than 180 rushing yards per game this season.

UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction on Spread – 11/5/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic spread prediction for Thursday, November 5.

• UTSA ranks 30th nationally in EPA per play (+0.23) and 28th in offensive success rate (47.8%). FAU's defense has been one of the worst in the country, ranking 136th in EPA allowed per play (+0.27) and 111th in defensive success rate (44%).
• The biggest mismatch in this game is UTSA's rushing attack against FAU's run defense. The Roadrunners rank sixth nationally in EPA/rush (0.19) and fifth in offensive rush success rate (51.6%).
• Meanwhile, FAU’s defense ranks 137th nationally in EPA/rush (0.30) and 116th nationally in defensive rush success rate (48.2%).
• The Owls have surrendered 48 points to North Texas, 49 to Rice, and 56 to Army in three of their last four games.
• On the other side of the ball, this FAU passing attack is explosive but will be throwing into the better part of this UTSA defense — it’s secondary.
• UTSA is 94th in defensive rush success rate (46.3%) and has a much more respectable ranking of 45th in defensive pass success rate (41.7%).
• Overall, the UTSA offense features one of the most significant strength-on-weakness mismatches on the entire Week 10 college football slate, while the FAU offense features a strength-on-strength matchup against a talented UTSA secondary.

Lock in your UTSA vs. FAU prediction on PrizePicks before Thursday's CFB game.

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Make UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Picks on PrizePicks

Thursday night's American Conference matchup features two teams with very different defensive profiles. UTSA has established itself as a legitimate conference contender with a 7-1 record, while FAU has struggled to find consistency despite boasting one of the country's most productive passing attacks.

Don't wait until kickoff — make your UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic picks on PrizePicks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you're right.

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