USA vs. Mexico Baseball Picks for Paul Skenes First WBC Start Today

To cap off another exciting day of World Baseball Classic action on Monday, Mexico will take on Team USA at Daikin Park at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX. This will be both teams' third game in pool play, with each currently 2-0.

As one of the favorites to win it all, the United States will face its stiffest challenge yet against a Mexico team with the highest run differential (+22) in the tournament so far.

The winner of Monday’s contest becomes the clear favorite to win Pool B and secure a spot in the WBC quarterfinals, while the loser may need to win their final pool game to advance.

Below, we’ll discuss our USA vs. Mexico baseball picks for Monday’s WBC game, including player picks for PrizePicks on Monday, March 9.

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USA vs. Mexico Baseball Preview for WBC – 3/9/26

Entering Monday’s showdown, Team USA is a decent-sized favorite, indicated by a 1.21x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks. Mexico carries a 4.16x payout as underdogs.

Ahead of the United States’ third game in pool play, Pirates SP Paul Skenes is expected to take the mound for the red, white, and blue. Skenes is coming off a 2025 NL Cy Young campaign, where he had the best xERA (2.65) and fifth-best xFIP (3.03) among starters.

The USA and Mexico have become rivals in the WBC, and Mexico owns a 3-1 record against the United States over the tournament's history. The latest meeting occurred in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, ending with Mexico defeating the United States, 11-5.

USA vs. Mexico Projected Lineups – 3/9/26

Here are the projected USA vs. Mexico lineups for today's World Baseball Classic game. Lineups are not official.

USA Projected Lineup vs. Mexico:

Pirates SP Paul Skenes is expected to start for the United States vs. Mexico tonight.

1. SS Bobby Witt Jr.
2. 1B Bryce Harper
3. OF Aaon Judge
4. DH Kyle Schwarber
5. 3B Alex Bregman
6. C Cal Raleigh
7. OF Roman Anthony
8. OF Byron Buxton
9. 2B Brice Turang

Mexico Projected Lineup vs. USA:

Mexico is slated to start Orioles RP Manny Barreda vs. the USA on Monday.

1. OF Jarren Duran
2. OF Randy Arozarena
3. 1B Jonathan Aranda
4. C Alejandro Kirk
5. DH Rowdy Tellez
6. 3B Nacho Alvarez Jr.
7. 2B Nick Gonzales
8. OF Alek Thomas
9. SS Joey Ortiz

USA vs. Mexico Baseball Picks Today for WBC

Player picks via PrizePicks for USA vs. Mexico are headlined by Paul Skenes and Aaron Judge.

USA OF Kyle Schwarber vs. Mexico

Kyle Schwarber Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Hits (Goblin), 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Goblin), 0.5 Home Runs (Demon)

• Kyle Schwarber has either batted leadoff or fourth in the USA’s lineup for the first two pool games.
• Along with Schwarber swatting a homer in the United States’ 9-1 victory over Great Britain on Saturday, he’s had multiple hits in back-to-back starts.
• Schwarber achieved at least 4 hits + runs + RBIs in both of his outings in the WBC.
• Of the batters in the World Baseball Classic with at least 5 plate appearances, Schwarber owns the 13th-best wOBA (.618) and 10th-best OBP (.636).

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USA SP Paul Skenes vs. Mexico

Paul Skenes Projections via PrizePicks: 2.5 Strikeouts (PrizePicks Promo), 4.5 Strikeouts (Goblin), 1.5 1st Inning Pitcher Strikeouts (Demon), 0.5 1st Inning Hits Allowed (Demon)

• PrizePicks is running a promo for Paul Skenes strikeouts, discounting his strikeout projection from 4.5 to 2.5 vs. Mexico today. Claim the Skenes promo HERE on the WBC board.
• Skenes ranked fourth in strikeout rate (29.5%) among qualified starting pitchers in MLB last season.
• USA SPs Logan Webb and Tarik Skubal hurled at least three innings and struck out at least five batters in the team’s first two pool games.
• Among starting pitchers with 10-plus starts in MLB's 2025 season, Skenes was 29th in strikeout rate (30.0%) and ninth for WHIP (0.81) in the first inning of his outings.
• Although it's vs. weaker opposing pitching, Mexico has only struck out 11 times in 65 at-bats in the WBC — a low 16.9% strikeout rate.

Mexico OF Jarren Duran vs. USA

Jarren Duran Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Hits (Goblin), 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Demon), 0.5 Home Runs (Demon)

• Jarren Duran was the leadoff hitter in Mexico’s first two pool games of the World Baseball Classic.
• Despite Duran failing to record a hit in Mexico’s opener, he’s coming off a 2-hit performance in Sunday’s 16-0 blowout win against Brazil.
• In addition to Duran's home run on Sunday, he’s 19th in wOBA (.581) among WBC hitters with at least 5 plate appearances.

Make Your USA vs. Mexico Picks on PrizePicks

Both teams had little trouble producing runs and wins to begin the World Baseball Classic, as the USA and Mexico cruised to victories over Brazil and Great Britain. Will the United States get revenge for its defeat to Mexico in 2023, or will Mexico come out on top once again?

You can make your USA vs. Mexico picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money on World Baseball Classic games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like hits or home runs, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states. 

Stick around with the Playbook for continued World Baseball Classic predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.

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