UFC makes its return to Texas as Sean Strickland faces Anthony Hernandez in a high-stakes middleweight showdown at UFC Houston. Saturday night’s main card action kicks off from the Toyota Center, featuring a stacked main card of rising contenders ready to make statements inside the Octagon. Main card kicks off at 8 p.m. EST on Paramount+.
Below are our UFC Houston prediction and picks for Strickland vs. Hernandez and the rest of the main card. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on winners, method of victory, and more!
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UFC Houston Predictions, Picks for Strickland vs. Hernandez & Main Card
Sean Strickland is back in the spotlight for a big five-round middleweight fight against Anthony Hernandez, who is on the rise, finishing six opponents during his eight-fight winning streak. UFC Houston will be held at the Toyota Center on Saturday night. The fight has big stakes in the crowded 185-pound title picture.
Meanwhile, the main card is loaded with action-friendly bouts, including a welterweight banger between Geoff Neal and Uros Medic, a featherweight scrap pitting Dan Ige against Melquizael Costa, and heavyweight hitters Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivak. Rising talents Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell and Michel Pereira vs. Zach Reese round out a compelling lineup.
UFC Houston Fight Winner Payouts
With PrizePicks Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, method of victory, and more for each fight at UFC Houston, now available in 34 states.
- Main Event - Middleweight (185 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Anthony Hernandez 1.35x | Sean Strickland 2.94x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Co-Main Event - Welterweight (170 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Geoff Neal 1.44x | Uros Medic 2.56x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Bantamweight (135 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Dan Ige 2.63x | Melquizael Costa 1.44x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Heavyweight (265 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Serghei Spivak 2.17x | Ante Delija 1.63x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Welterweight (170 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Jacobe Smith 1.33x | Josiah Harrell 3.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
- Middleweight (185 lbs)
- Fight Winner Payouts: Zach Reese 2.17x | Michel Pereira 1.61x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
UFC Houston Picks for PrizePicks
Here are the top UFC Houston picks to target for Saturday, February 21, on PrizePicks.
Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez Projection: Sean Strickland 85.5 Significant Strikes
- Strickland averages 5.95 significant strikes per minute for his career, needing just 3.42 per minute over 25 minutes to clear the 85.5 projection.
- In four of his last five five-round fights, Strickland landed 128, 182, 173, and 137 significant strikes, eclipsing 85.5 in each outing.
- Hernandez's strike defense sits at just 49%, meaning nearly half of all strikes thrown his way connect, a favorable target for Strickland's relentless output.
- Strickland ranks third all-time in UFC significant strikes landed (2,197), underscoring his elite volume and endurance across championship rounds.
Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic Projection: 6.25 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Medic’s UFC average fight time is 4:15, rarely seeing the second round.
- “The Doctor’s” last four UFC bouts all ended in Round 1 (1:03, 1:03, 0:31, 2:09).
- Neal is coming off a brutal first-round knockout defeat (first in his UFC career) against Carlos Prates.
- Neal absorbs 5.48 significant strikes per minute, which gives Medic the opportunity to land in this fight.
- PrizePicks Teams Picks favor this fight to end inside the distance with a 1.09x payout.
Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa Projection: Dan Ige 44.5 Significant Strikes
- Ige averages 3.64 significant strikes per minute for his UFC career, needing just 2.97 per minute over three full rounds to clear his projection this weekend.
- In five of his last seven UFC fights, Ige landed at least 42 significant strikes.
- Costa's significant strike defense sits at just 54% and allowed his opponents to land at least 65 significant strikes in his last two fights that have gone the distance.
- Costa absorbs 3.06 significant strikes per minute, giving Ige the opportunity to land his strikes as long as he keeps his volume and pace high.
- With both Ige and Costa being durable fighters, this fight is projected to see the scorecards giving Ige the full 15 minutes to keep up his pace throughout the fight.
Serghei Spivak vs. Ante Delija Projection: 7.25 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Spivak's average UFC fight time stretches over multiple rounds, including recently seeing the scorecards against heavy-hitter Waldo Cortes-Acosta back in June 2025.
- Spivak averages 3.45 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25, a steady, grinding pace that rarely produces instant knockouts.
- Delija absorbs just 2.65 significant strikes per minute, one of the lower rates among UFC heavyweights, in his two UFC fights.
- While neither of Delija's UFC fights lasted one full round, Spivak's durability has kept him in fights longer than the allotted time, with an average fight time of 7:54.
Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell Projection: Jacobe Smith 46.5 Significant Strikes
- Smith averages a blistering 6.21 significant strikes per minute in his two UFC fights and appearance on the Contender Series.
- “Cobe” has shown elite accuracy, landing at a 66% clip against the opposition, thus far in his short time inside the Octagon.
- In his last two UFC appearances, Smith landed 46 and 67 significant strikes, respectively, seeing more than his projection for this weekend.
- Both men are undefeated finishers heading into their UFC debuts, which should be a high-output, high-pace fight.
Zach Reese vs. Michel Pereira Projection: 7.25 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Reese’s average fight time is 5:30, so his bouts trend well inside the 7.25-minute mark.
- Pereira owns 14 first-round finishes, with four of those coming during his time in the UFC.
- “Savage” has finished eight of 10 wins, and seven of those finishes came in Round 1.
- Both men push high-tempo exchanges — Pereira lands 4.49 and absorbs 4.35 significant strikes per minute, while Reese lands 4.32 and absorbs 3.82.
- PrizePicks Teams Picks favor this fight to end inside the distance with a 1.14x payout.
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Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks
UFC Fight Night, headlined by Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez, is set to be an exciting main event on Saturday, plus plenty of important fights on the main card.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued UFC picks, predictions, and news.
