UFC Fight Night Predictions — Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos & Main Card Fights

Saturday's UFC Fight Night card does have relevant UFC fights, but this return to the Meta Apex has a different overarching theme.

Season 34 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) has come and gone, and it’s time to settle the reality show’s winners at men’s bantamweight and women’s strawweight.

That leads to a high-octane main event at 135 pounds, where 21-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. headlines a UFC card for the first time against Brazilian grappling stalwart Raoni Barcelos.

The UFC Vegas 121 main card features five fights, with Rosas Jr. a moderate favorite over Barcelos in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks payouts.

Tonight's UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with our UFC predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for the Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos main event and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Vegas 121 predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right!

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UFC Fight Night Predictions for Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos & UFC Vegas 121 Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Vegas 121 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos’s main card is expected to start at 8:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos — Bantamweight
• Co-Main Event: Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez — Women's Bantamweight
• Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez — Light Heavyweight
• Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu — Bantamweight TUF Finale
• Melissa Amaya vs. Valesca Machado — Women’s Strawweight TUF Finale

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Vegas 121 main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Raul Rojas Jr. 1.61x | Raoni Barcelos 2.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Model Results:

I was wondering where Raul Rosas Jr.—the 21-year-old from Mexico—was at Noche UFC a couple of weeks ago, but the promoters had bigger plans.

“Chiwiwis” will headline his first five-round fight on Saturday, but it likely won’t be his last. One of the most notable UFC prospects ever, he's been with the organization since he was 18 and has quickly ascended with a carefully designed 6-1 record. Rosas Jr.’s six promotional wins are a combined 21-33 in the UFC.

Still, he seems like a handful in the grappling department, posting 6.10 takedowns per 15 minutes with tremendous accuracy (59%). He’s also collected two UFC subs in seven starts, attempting 0.9 chokes per 15 minutes.

Without a doubt, Rosas’ toughest test to date awaits on Saturday. Raoni Barcelos, 39, might be long in the tooth, but the 11-4 UFC veteran already turned aside a prospect who still found his way to the division’s top 10 less than two years ago: Payton Talbott.

Barcelos — a credentialed wrestler and grappler from Brazil — has an 87% takedown defense. Rosas Jr.’s last four opponents averaged 51%, and the highest was 63%. In fact, it’s Barcelos’ +0.41 striking success rate (SSR) that suggests a slight edge at distance.

The youngster's athletic advantages are certainly undeniable — but also no different from those of Talbott, who lost via unanimous decision to Raoni at the start of 2025. 

I can’t wait to see if the prospect can step up and deliver a career-best performance, but anyone counting Barcelos out in a fight within his preferred domain is crazy.

Predict the Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Winner at UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

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Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Pick for UFC Vegas 121

Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos – 23.5 Minutes Fight Time

Can one of these credentialed submission grapplers make it to the other’s back?

That might be what it takes to see fewer than 25 minutes in the main event. Rosas Jr. has largely been uncomfortable at distance and lands just 1.34 significant strikes per minute with a modest knockdown rate (0.87 KD%).

Barcelos, older than he’s ever been, has a 0.54 KD% himself, and he’ll happily engage in Rosas’ preferred fight after having been dropped in three of his last seven fights.

The model’s verdict of a full fight 57.9% of the time means we might get our money’s worth from this five-rounder.

Make Your Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Pick for UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Norma Dumont 2.27x | Ailin Perez 1.61x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight (185 lbs.)

Dumont vs. Perez Model Results:

On Thursday, UFC bumped Norma Dumont and Ailin Perez's fight up to the co-main event. It was about time.

This is not the most glamorous card, so a top-10 fight with real championship stakes at women's 135 alone would justify this spot. But, there's some real bad blood between Brazil's Norma Dumont and Argentina's Ailin Perez from the moments they've crossed paths:

Stylistically, this is an intriguing matchup. Dumont has been to a decision in her last 11 bouts with UFC. Three of those were split results. It's usually death, taxes, and a full fight for the Brazilian, whose striking (64%) and takedown (71%) defense make it hard to land meaningful offense. She enters with a +1.52 SSR.

Striking efficiency is also a strength of Ailin Perez, but it's because she never gets hit. She's used 4.90 takedowns per 15 minutes to bully six straight opponents on this winning streak, and the 31-year-old is clearly evolving in the submission department as well.

Perez is coming off a win over Macy Chiasson, landing six takedowns in a dominant decision. Chiasson actually floored Dumont six times in a 2022 fight, which could point to a physical strength difference that makes the surging Argentinian a slight favorite here.

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Dumont vs. Perez Pick for UFC Vegas 121

Norma Dumont – 32.5 Significant Strikes

On her own, Dumont isn't really a high-volume striking machine.

She attempts just 7.70 significant strikes per minute, but that factors in a blitzkrieg of Irene Aldana, where she landed 159 on 309 (!) attempts. She's much more patient, and that likely won't change, since she has to avoid throwing kicks Perez might catch.

It's plausible that Ailin's bubble bursts at some point with someone who can halt her excellent takedown efficiency (49%), but as it stands, her opponents have averaged just 20.83 significant strikes per fight during this six-fight win streak.

Make Your Dumont vs. Perez Pick for UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Sedriques Dumas 2.70x | Luis Hernandez 1.42x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

I really don't know where this promotion is heading. On merit, Sedriques Dumas (3-5 UFC) should never be on a main card, but the narrative behind this short-notice clash against Luis Hernandez is truly unbelievable.

Just 11 days ago, I highlighted Hernandez's background as a cop in Miami-Dade County — as well as his strengths and weaknesses as a fighter — before an appearance on Dana White's Contender Series. What followed? An incredible back-and-forth battle, a submission win, a UFC contract earned, and a debut less than two weeks later.

At 5'9", I don't know Hernandez's ceiling in he and Dumas's natural division at middleweight. But the embattled underdog is a perfect debut opponent for two reasons.

First, his impotent offense (1.97 significant strikes landed per minute) hasn't threatened anyone in this division, and he's been stopped in, realistically, four straight appearances. Secondarily, Dumas has a criminal history in... Florida, of all places. You legitimately can't make this stuff up.

Apparently, it was too good to pass up for a main card slot. We'll see if Hernandez can make an expected statement with his power and submission danger, or we'll see if Dumas' experience can allow him to drag the newcomer into uncharted waters.

Predict the Dumas vs. Hernandez Winner at UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

Dumas vs. Hernandez Pick for UFC Vegas 121

Dumas vs. Hernandez – 4.25 Minutes Fight Time

Dumas is a peculiar guy when it comes to estimating fight totals.

All three of his UFC wins have come by decision, so an underdog win likely trends that way. It's not like the Floridian's 0.00 KD% and 0.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes are particularly threatening to a guy willing to wade through adversity.

Dumas also hasn't seen a seventh minute in four straight fights. Hernandez, landing 11.14 significant strikes on DWCS, doesn't take long to push the pace, and you know he's looking for the highlight — especially since his cardio might not be perfect on just four days' notice.

Make Your Dumas vs. Hernandez Pick for UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

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Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Mehemmedeli Osmanli 1.33x | Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu 3.12x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

It was a full sweep at bantamweight for “Team Bisping”. Both Mehemmedeli Osmanli and Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu wore blue but will face each other in the finale.

Azerbaijan’s Osmanli was undoubtedly the star of the season, though. He tapped both Artem Belakh and Christian Strong within 10 minutes on the show, highlighting his dangerous jiu-jitsu arsenal:

Plus, at striking range, the southpaw glides with a flowy, in-and-out rhythm, but don’t sleep on his boxing in the pocket just because he was forced to defend takedowns.

More of that should be on the way from Kyrgyzstan’s Akylbek Uulu. Affectionately known as “Bek” by his Team Bisping teammates, Akylbek Uulu very much brings the same all-out wrestling approach from his region that we’ve seen from Myktybek Orolbai and Asu Almabayev. His TUF opponents, including Contender Series alum Xavier Franklin, had no answers for it.

Unfortunately, Akylbek Uulu was ground-and-pounded out of there twice with another major MMA promotion, ONE Championship:

Hopefully, his resolve and bottom game have improved against the surging, 21-year-old submission threat. Otherwise, Azerbaijan might have its next potential star inside the octagon.

Predict the Osmanli vs. Akylbek Uulu Winner at UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

Osmanli vs. Akylbek Uulu Pick for UFC Vegas 121

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu – 21.5 Significant Strikes

I mentioned the comparisons of Orolbai and Almabayev for Akylbek Uulu’s approach. It’s probably not a fruitful one for striking.

Almabayev has never topped 45 significant strikes despite seven straight bouts reaching the third round. Orolbai, similarly, has eclipsed 30 just twice in his seven total appearances.

When your focus is on grappling legs and flooring opponents, it comes at the cost of real damage. Plus, Osmanli has proven to be a lethal finisher, which doesn’t help the case for a “More” here.

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Melissa Amaya vs. Valesca Machado Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Melissa Amaya 2.77x | Valesca Machado 1.40x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs.)

Just as the men’s side was a sweep for Bisping, “Team Cormier” cleaned up at women’s strawweight.

It wasn’t just Melissa Amaya and Valesa “Tina Black” Machado; Delphine Benouaich was also in the semis from the squad, and she made her UFC debut in Paris three weeks ago. Regardless, Amaya will face Tina Black for the trophy, and both women are intriguing prospects. 

Amaya, undefeated as a pro from Washington at 8-0, trains with Michael Chiesa and Brady Hiestand at “Sikjitsu”, and it shows up in her confident, aggressive ground game. She needed every ounce of that to escape a deep armbar and fatigue Gigi Canuto to stamp her spot here:

As mentioned, Machado, who I’ll refer to as her fighting pseudonym “Tina Black”, already has one UFC win under her belt. She dominated Delphine Benouaich in Rounds 2 and 3 to earn this role in the finale, and Benouaich’s debut — a performance bonus-worthy effort that included a +74 striking differential — didn’t hurt the case that she belongs in this division.

We also saw Black lose on the Contender Series against Piera Rodriguez, who is now ranked at 115 pounds. The Brazilian, though, is a potent, aggressive boxer who throws in combinations and closed Benouaich’s eye shut.

I think this matchup comes down to Black’s anti-grappling. The veteran and Invicta FC alum has significantly more experience against high-level competition, and there’s only a one-inch height and reach gap here compared to the multiple-inch advantages she surrendered to Benouaich.

If unable to floor Black, Amaya (and her gym) have had questionable moments at distance against iffy competition. 

Predict the Amaya vs. Machado Winner at UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

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Amaya vs. Machado Pick for UFC Vegas 121

Valesca Machado – 56.5 Significant Strikes

I don’t think we got to see the best of Tina Black’s striking on the Contender Series.

Rodriguez lands 4.04 takedowns per 15 minutes in UFC with elite accuracy (50%). Even then, Black was able to stuff 10 of 13 attempts, but that constant battle in the clinch limited her to 36 total significant strikes.

I am not sure Amaya can be projected to have the same grappling success. She struggled to floor Canuto when fresh.

I counted north of 10 significant strikes landed per minute for Black in a high-octane final round with Benouaich. The pace could be frantic here if the American realizes she can’t wrestle early.

Make Your Amaya vs. Machado Pick for UFC Vegas 121 on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Vegas 121: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks or lift championship gold.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Vegas 121, headlined by Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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