UFC Fight Night Predictions – Gamrot vs. Salkilld & Main Card Fights Tonight

The UFC returns to its Las Vegas headquarters for UFC Vegas 120 at the Meta Apex this weekend, and it’s moving day at 155 pounds.

The UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld main card starts on Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Fight Night predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Gamrot vs. Salkilld and the rest of the main card.

We’ll find out just how legitimate Qullian Salkilld’s rise up the rankings has been at the UFC Fight Night main event. The Aussie has recorded five straight wins — many of the show-stopping variety — to find the top 15, but Polish wrestler Mateusz Gamrot, a winner in 9 of his last 12, is far from an easy out.

The UFC Vegas 120 main card features five fights, with Salkilld a slight favorite over Gamrot in the main event, according to payouts on PrizePicks Team Picks.

In the co-main event, UFC stand-and-bang specialists will go head-to-head, looking to stop losing streaks, as Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo battle in the lightweight division.

Let's get into our UFC Fight Night predictions for Saturday, August 8, including model projections for every main card fight.

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UFC Fight Night Predictions for Gamrot vs. Salkilld & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Vegas 120 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld’s main card is expected to start at 8:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld — Lightweight
• Co-Main Event: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo — Lightweight
• Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle — Featherweight
• Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara — Women’s Strawweight
• Ty Miller vs. Billy Ray Goff — Welterweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Fight Night main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld Prediction for UFC Vegas 120

Fight Winner Payouts: Mateusz Gamrot 1.63x | Quillan Salkilld 2.12x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Gamrot vs. Salkilld Model Results:

One of the UFC’s brightest prospects will have a chance to thrust himself into the title conversation on Saturday, but he’ll have to get by a notorious “Gamer” to do it.

That, of course, is Mateusz Gamrot of Poland. The veteran never quite got into that championship conversation after untimely losses to Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira, but the American Top Team-trained grappler routinely grinds foes to dust with 5.22 takedowns per 15 minutes.

The lone problem with Gamrot’s wrestling has been entertainment value, but he answered promotional requests with a more active submission hunt against Esteban Ribovics earlier this year:

At 36, one last push for him toward the title isn’t crazy if he turns back a seemingly unstoppable Quillan Salkilld. The Western Australia native isn’t just finishing opposing lightweights as he advances up the rankings, but they’re pretty ridiculous highlights along the way:

Salkilld’s octagon sample is approaching 40 minutes, so it’s time to take his video-game-like statistics seriously. He’s managed a +1.98 striking success rate (SSR) with a 57% striking accuracy and 7.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.

These are the peripherals of a future champion if they hold through a larger sample — especially when he’s 26 and just started MMA in 2018.

At distance, Salkilld’s power, diversity, and five-inch reach edge are a mammoth issue for Gamrot, who was dropped by both Dariush and Rafael Dos Anjos — two smaller opponents. This fight should be decided by the underdog’s proficiency in disrupting Salkilld’s 80% takedown defense, which is a task easier said than done.

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Gamrot vs. Salkilld Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Mateusz Gamrot – 41.5 Significant Strikes

Mateusz Gamrot’s significant strike totals are never first on his mind, but it’s an interesting projection in a scheduled five-round fight.

The model sees a full-length feature 42.3% of the time, but that’s a median outcome. Four of Salkilld’s six octagon appearances ended in first-round finishes, and there’s a level of danger he brings with 1.52% knockdown rate (KD%).

If Gamrot survives, he landed 81 significant strikes (with 6 takedowns) in his only career fight that entered championship rounds. The favorite’s 45% striking defense isn’t particularly strong, either.

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Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo Prediction for UFC Vegas 120

Fight Winner Payouts: Diego Ferreira x | Billy Quarantillo x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Ferreira vs. Quarantillo Model Results:

UFC Vegas 120’s co-main event is outstanding matchmaking between two brawlers who have been on “Fight of the Night” watch in their respective divisions for at least five years.

Diego Ferreira held a ranking at lightweight for years, and even into his 40s, he’s turned back Mateusz Rebecki and Michael Johnson by (T)KO as a potent threat. The well-rounded combatant has 5 KOs and 7 submissions in 26 pro fights.

His +1.24 SSR is built on equal parts volume (12.05 significant strike attempts per minute) and quality striking defense (55%).

However, “volume” isn’t an edge for many MMA fighters on Earth against “Billy Q”.

Billy Quarantillo has broken several opponents on the basis of 13.78 significant strike attempts per minute, and unlike Ferreira, he lands a majority of them (54%). As he’s aged, Quarantillo’s durability just hasn’t been quite what it was after such a difficult cut to 145 pounds, which is why he’s moving to 155.

Considering Ferreira is also coming off a violent knockout loss, durability is a major factor in this matchup of veterans. Either one could go to sleep at any time.

If both can withstand each other’s power, though, the battle will be Quarantillo’s elite pace and cardio against the grappling prowess of “CDF”, who might take a page out of Youssef Zalal’s playbook. The Moroccan submitted Quarantillo in 2024.

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Ferreira vs. Quarantillo Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Billy Quarantillo – 43.5 Significant Strikes

Even in defeat, Billy Q has made a habit of putting up crooked numbers in the significant strike column.

Quarantillo has topped 70 significant strikes in nine of his 12 octagon appearances if you count his appearance on the Contender Series. As mentioned, Ferreira’s historical volume isn’t exactly a slog, either.

Zalal has proven to be a top-shelf grappler at featherweight, so it really depends on how much you value CDF’s prowess there. On paper, his takedown accuracy (30%) isn’t supremely consistent, and he’s only mustered 0.6 submission attempts per 15.

As a fight fan, I want to see these guys stand and bang. I’m not sure what Ferreira’s approach would be, but delivering my wish would certainly help the case for the “More” side of this projection.

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Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle Prediction for UFC Vegas 120

Fight Winner Payouts: Darren Elkins x | Yadier del Valle x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

Elkins vs. del Valle Model Results:

“Father Time” is ultimately the final and toughest opponent for all athletes, including MMA fighters. Darren Elkins will continue to defy his wishes one last time on Saturday night.

Sacramento’s Elkins is 42 in a featherweight division that isn’t usually kind to aging, and he’s taken nearly 16 months off after an April bout with Julian Erosa, where he absorbed 54 significant strikes in a first-round (T)KO.

“The Damage” has made a career out of wearing the fruits of his labor as a mask of blood on his face, but even the toughest of MMA fighters can only take so much.

His opponent for Saturday is a 30-year-old combatant still trying to find his footing after a bizarre start to his UFC tenure.

Through no fault of his own, Yadier del Valle was on the winning side of a bout with Isaac Dulgarian, where Dulgarian was investigated by the FBI for potentially throwing the fight. Though no charges were filed, Dulgarian was cut from the roster after a suspicious, unusually poor effort.

“The Cuban Problem” then went on to battle another grappler, Jordan Leavitt, and looked lost. He ceded 4 takedowns and 7:57 in control time — only further fueling speculation about the Dulgarian result.

Because of Elkins’ age and attrition, del Valle’s athletic advantages are obvious, but Elkins has historically attempted 8.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed a fair clip of them (34%). If he’s able to get his wrestling going like Leavitt, can he neutralize del Valle?

It’s possible, but beware of the Cuban’s lethal ground game. He’s managed 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes across over 33 octagon minutes completed. Plus, it's fair to wonder how dialed Elkins is into winning what is confirmed to be a retirement bout.

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Elkins vs. del Valle Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Yadier del Valle – 27.5 Significant Strikes

Yadier del Valle’s finishing upside is obvious, according to the model’s 52.4% likelihood he gets it done inside the full 15-minute distance.

Where does that relate to this projection fresh off a full-length feature, though? The featherweight also went to a decision on the Contender Series, sandwiching two first-round finishes.

Elkins’ long layoff may have been to help aid what has otherwise been pretty solid durability. He’s only been stopped twice inside the first 10 minutes in his last 21 appearances dating back to the start of 2021. This, of course, comes with the context that he — like all of us — is as old as he’s ever been on fight night.

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Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara Prediction for UFC Vegas 120

Fight Winner Payouts: Amanda Lemos 3.12x | Alexia Thainara 1.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women Strawweight (115 lbs.)

Lemos vs. Thainara Model Results:

Is it nuts to think a title contender could emerge from this fight? Not at all.

Gillian Robertson will face Mackenzie Dern for the 115-pound strap next week, and she earned that opportunity off of…a win over Amanda Lemos. Brazilian prospect Alexia Thainara will look to do the same after a trio of dominant performances since winning on the Contender Series.

In an absurd stat, Thainara has spent at least 67.5% of the fight in control of her opponent through her first three official UFC starts. She’s posted 4.54 takedowns per 15 minutes with elite efficiency (57%). My model also believes she’s due for a bit more fortune in securing submissions, racking up 1.8 attempts per 15 minutes but securing just one in four octagon appearances.

Lemos is always game, though. The 39-year-old from Para is a nine-time UFC winner with unusual power for the division (1.35 KD%). She’s just run into a late-career rut of matchups like these, where her 63% takedown defense, combined with an inability to get off her back, failed against Robertson, Weili Zhang, Tatiana Suarez, and others.

The thing about those names? They’re the very top of the division. Thainara will have to prove she belongs in that group and isn’t in the same tier as Iasmin Lucindo, whose aggressive grappling style was thwarted by Lemos, a veteran who was too big and too savvy. We’ll see which level “Burguesinha” establishes herself at in this one.

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Lemos vs. Thainara Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Alexia Thainara – 44.5 Significant Strikes

The fun part about Thainara compared to a Robertson or Suarez? She might have a legitimate UFC future with a more fun style than we’ve seen recently.

The grappling has been dominant, but it wasn’t long ago that the Brazilian landed 101 significant strikes in addition to 3 takedowns on Dana White’s Contender Series. Only 2:40 of that bout was spent in the clinch.

Winning at distance would be quite the statement against Lemos, whose last knockout came in December 2022. While her power is respectable, it hasn’t been quite as frightening as she’s aged.

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Ty Miller vs. Billy Ray Goff Prediction for UFC Vegas 120

Fight Winner Payouts: Ty Miller 1.23x | Billy Ray Goff 3.70x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

The first fighter to ever compete on Paramount+ was Ty Miller. He’ll look to build on a memorable debut, which featured 59 significant strikes in a sub-five-minute knockout of Adam Fugitt.

“Thriller” is a highly regarded prospect at 26 — and for good reason. He’s got unusually slick boxing with a 77-inch reach at welterweight. A lot of guys just aren’t going to be able to close the gap or touch him.

Miller’s +2.51 SSR is clean through two octagon appearances. There are just significant questions around his grappling prowess and long-term power, given his slender build.

Recency bias might cloud just how good a prospect-versus-prospect battle this is. Billy Ray Goff (+2.49 SSR) has competed just once since May 2024 due to injuries, other fighters (like Fugitt) pulling out of fights at the last second, and more.

At his best, Goff is a “Fight of the Night” machine. He wades through damage to keep pressuring forward, landing 7.51 significant strikes per minute. That sort of “defense comes second” approach will likely cap his upside in UFC, but it’s hard not to get overwhelmed when he’s charging forward:

Goff’s pressure and wrestling, attempting 10.94 takedowns per 15 minutes thus far, are two new challenges for Miller. Yet, it’s also easy to see the favorite’s jab lighting up Goff’s face for his most impressive win to date. One thing is certain: make it to this main card on time.

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Miller vs. Goff Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Billy Ray Goff – 36.5 Significant Strikes

At the very least, Goff’s troubles against Ramiz Brahimaj in his last start shouldn’t be an issue here. Brahimaj violently choked him out, but the Dallas native has a 92.3% submission rate as a pro.

Miller hasn’t even attempted a takedown in just under 20 octagon minutes.

At distance, Goff has been a tough cookie to crumble. He’s been dropped once in 129 significant strikes absorbed — and rallied to win that fight. While Miller’s striking defense is absurd (64%), Goff isn’t too far behind (59%).

It might be difficult for the underdog to overcome his reach advantage and consistently land on Miller, but this projection seems to be squarely focused on just his ability to survive. He needs a handful of minutes if his attempt rate (16.33 significant strikes per minute) stays supremely high.

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Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Fight Night: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Vegas 120 goes down this Saturday, August 8, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card on PrizePicks, which is slated to start at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Fight Night, headlined by Gamrot vs. Salkilld, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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