UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions for Main Fight Card, Ankalaev vs. Guskov & More

UFC returns to one of its famed international venues from the COVID-19 pandemic on Saturday in a rare daytime main card.

“Fight Island” has evolved a bit in Abu Dhabi since those 2020 fights, but it still remains a unique, international destination for MMA fighters and fans. UFC fans in Abu Dhabi will again be treated to a high-stakes main event at light heavyweight between former champion Magomed Ankalaev and Uzbekistan’s Bogdan Guskov.

The UFC Abu Dhabi main card features six fights, with Ankalaev a heavy favorite over Guskov in the main event, according to user picks on PrizePicks Team Picks.

In the co-main event, flyweights will duel as former title challenger Steve Erceg looks to hold off surging Uzbekistani power puncher Ramazan Temirov.

The UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov main fight card starts midday Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Abu Dhabi predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Ankalaev vs. Guskov and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Abu Dhabi predictions on PrizePicks, including winner, method of victory, and more!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions for Ankalaev vs. Guskov & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Abu Dhabi predictions for Saturday, July 25, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov’s main card is expected to start at 12:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Magomed Anakalev vs. Bogdan Guskov – Light Heavyweight
• Co-Main: Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov – Flyweight
• Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman – Welterweight
• Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki – Lightweight
• Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune – Heavyweight
• Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev – Welterweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Fight Night main card fight below, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Magomed Anakalev vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi

Fight Winner Payouts: Magomed Ankalev 1.17x | Bogdan Guskov 4.54x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

Anakalev vs. Guskov Model Results:

Initially billed as a title eliminator for Magomed Ankalaev against Khalil Rountree Jr., the UFC saved the Abu Dhabi main event 10 days ago, by subbing in Bogdan Guskov for this fight.

Ankalaev will now face Bogdan Guskov and is looking to make a statement after a first-round (T)KO loss to Alex Pereira that snatched away his title. The Russian’s supreme technicality shines through his plus striking (56%) and takedown (87%) defense, but he’s had, at times, difficulty putting out enough volume to make a difference.

We’d really like to see more when we know the consequences can be grave for his opponents.

Seen as an afterthought by projections, Guskov is a bit of a wild card based on his level of competition. He dropped a short-notice debut to Volkan Oezdemir, beat four unranked fighters, and just went to a draw with Jan Blachowicz, where both fighters scored a knockdown and a seminal moment:

Uzbekistan’s own still has a 100% pro finishing rate after not getting the nod there. His endurance certainly seemed worse for wear in that toughest test, but it was also after throwing 83 strikes in the first two rounds as he tried to secure the finish.

The model (somewhat) respects Guskov’s per-minute striking volume — and it should. Ankalaev has really asked for trouble in low-volume decisions against Pereira, Aleksandar Rakic, and Thiago Santos, where he did just enough to secure rounds and, eventually, the fight.

It’s a dangerous way to live, especially with a high-volume guy trying to drop you.

Still, the technical diversity, wrestling upside, and five-round experience all favor the Russian in Abu Dhabi. Guskov will have pulled a true upset on short notice to thrust himself into the title mix.

Predict the Anakalev vs. Guskov Winner at UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Anakalev vs. Guskov Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Magomed Ankalaev – 9.75 Minutes Fight Time

Including several bouts against even lesser competition than Guskov, Ankalaev’s average fight time since the start of 2021 is 15.23 minutes. This projection is nearly a round less.

Guskov’s average fight time inside the rankings is 8.21 minutes, and his do-or-die style can contribute to a quick finish, but he’s about a week of camp short after he was scheduled to rematch Blachowicz next week at UFC Belgrade. There could be an effort to conserve his gas tank and see if the favorite will engage in a patented staring match. Plus, this is the toughest fight of his career.

The underdog’s approach will have a lot to do with which side of this projection ends up coming to fruition, but it’s an intriguing discussion. 

Make Your Anakalev vs. Guskov Pick for UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov Prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi

Fight Winner Payouts: Steve Erceg 1.88x | Ramazan Temirov 1.81x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

As projections indicate, a competitive flyweight co-main event between Steve Erceg and Ramazan Temirov should be a boatload of fun — as the “flyguys” usually are.

Kudos to Steve “Astroboy” Erceg for starting a road trip after a dominant win in his native Perth, Western Australia earlier this year. He dominated Tim Elliott — a tough veteran to finish — over the course of three rounds.

The former title challenger was famously a round and a slip away from dethroning Alexandre Pantoja. Now he' rebuilding momentum with two straight wins. He’s got tremendous boxing, per a +0.57 striking success rate (SSR), and has added 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes with passable efficiency.

Erceg’s purpose is to provide a quality, well-rounded test to one of the division’s dark horses. Ramazan Temirov has been on the shelf since March 2025 due to a performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he made quite the first impression:

Don’t underestimate the 5’3” Uzbekistan fighter on size alone. He packs a mammoth right hand and cleared veteran Charles Johnson by decision in his last bout before the suspension.

Erceg’s true kryptonite in UFC has been momentary lapses in durability. Kai Kara-France is another shorter fighter with dynamite sticks for hands, and he gave Astroboy issues, to say the least.

On a skill-for-skill basis, you have to like the Aussie’s chances if this fight is extended, but the crowd will likely be pulling for a Round 1 missile from Temirov.

Predict the Erceg vs. Temirov Winner at UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Erceg vs. Temirov Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Steve Erceg – 51.5 Significant Strikes

Erceg took a wrestling-heavy approach against Ode Osbourne, but Temirov’s undented takedown defense (100%) is married to quality skill on regional tape. If he wants to beat the explosive striker, it’s likely at distance.

Luckily for him, he’ll have a massive five-inch reach edge, and it might be underrated how much Erceg’s striking volume has improved. He’s landed at least 107 significant strikes at distance in each of his three fights that weren’t against Osbourne.

Temirov attempted just 118 against Johnson, landing just 39% on a fighter with a 70” reach. Erceg (68”) is comparable.

Make Your Erceg vs. Temirov Pick for UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman Prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi

Fight Winner Payouts: Islam Dulatov 1.09x | Wellington Turman 6.25x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

One of UFC’s most lauded prospects at the moment is Islam Dulatov from Dusseldorf, Germany, by way of Chechnya, Russia.

Dulatov wasted no time following up a Contender Series first-round knockout with another vs. Adam Fugitt.

He’s one of the most unique stories in the sport when he’s legitimately a model that isn’t cage fighting for money as much as passion. He’s fast, explosive, and we just haven’t even possibly seen all the tools to this point. He has five pro submissions, but has yet to enter a grappling situation in UFC.

Although just slightly, he will step up in competition to Wellington Turman, a three-time UFC winner from Brazil, on Saturday.

Turman returns to the promotion for the first time since December 2023. He’s been really trying to maximize his potential at Teixeira MMA & Fitness with Alex Pereira, Glover Teixeira, and others before this final chance to save his contract.

“The Prodigy” does have the most accomplished submission game of a Dulatov foe thus far, so he might be able to throw a new wrinkle at the budding superstar.

Projections aren’t fibbing. This is a brutal assignment for Turman, and he’s 0-2 in this weight class. His 45% striking defense is extremely poor.

Dulatov’s sample is so small that I can’t quite pinpoint any shortcomings or specific reasons he falls short, but unknowns innately comes with a bit of risk. Proceed with caution in this lopsided matchup.

Predict the Dulatov vs. Turman Winner at UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Dulatov vs. Turman Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Islam Dulatov – 4 Minutes Fight Time

Is it possible that the German escapes a first round for the first time since June 2021? Definitely.

For all of Turman’s shortcomings, durability hasn’t been one of them. He’s seen the seven-minute mark in five straight fights, and three of those were against larger middleweights.

Plus, if there’s one thing his gym isn’t short on with Pereira, Yousri Belgaroui, and more, it’s big-bodied kickboxers.

Dulatov’s pace was just okay against Adam Fugitt (2-4 UFC) last year, attempting 44 significant strikes in just over four minutes. Turman’s defensive issues certainly help build an argument that he finds the button early, but I'm not certain he puts the Brazilian down with his first shot.

Make Your Dulatov vs. Turman Pick for UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki Prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi

Fight Winner Payouts: Magomed Zaynukov 1.29x | Damian Rzepecki 3.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

It’s finally the UFC debut for “Chanco”, who was one of the brightest stars on the Contender Series last fall.

Magomed Zaynukov, who resembled the AI social media character “John Pork” to many fans, had just about the most dominant decision win in the history of the show. Islam Makhachev’s primary training partner set the DWCS record for significant strikes landed in a fight (235).

His opponent’s durability doesn’t take away from the ridiculous pace and striking accuracy (60%) on display. It’s historically an even greater sign of future success than a quick (and potentially fluky) finish. Former 170-pound champion Jack Della Maddalena landed 108 significant strikes in a decision years ago.

Especially given the soft track that Dulatov has gotten, you’d think he’d have gotten an easier first test than Damian Rzepecki, an undefeated Polish kickboxer.

If not against one of the top prospects in the sport, “The Butcher” seemed to be working toward a Contender Series appearance himself.

The training partner of Mateusz Rebecki just hasn’t quite had to go through the wringer yet. His best opponent's win percentage is currently .619. He hadn’t even made it to Poland’s OKTAGON MMA promotion at this stage.

Zaynukov is no given after his debut, but a special Contender Series start has plenty of eyeballs on this encore against Rzepecki.

Predict the Zaynukov vs. Rzepecki Winner at UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Zaynukov vs. Rzepecki Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Magomed Zaynukov – 80.5 Significant Strikes

Obviously, we’ve seen that — if nothing else, Zaynukov can push a pace for over 15 minutes. This projection could look silly if his fight with Rzepecki goes the full distance.

However, Zaynukov has scored a knockout in five of his eight pro fights, and that’s because of a pace that usually breaks people. Does the Polish fighter stand up to the heightened competition level?

For a guy who comes off the Contender Series averaging 15.67 significant strikes landed per minute, this is still a somewhat perilous projection just because the Russian is so dangerous and skilled.

Make Your Zaynukov vs. Rzepecki Pick for UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune Prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi

Fight Winner Payouts: Rizvan Kuniev 1.29x | Tyrell Fortune 3.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

It’s a battle of PFL alums in this main card featured fight at heavyweight.

Of course, Rizvan Kuniev’s PFL debut — a win against Renan Ferreira overturned due to a substance test — has earned him plenty of respect through a Contender Series appearance and into his UFC debut. How about a schedule of Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida in your first two fights?

In them, the Russian has proven to be an efficient striker (+1.61 SSR) and holds near-impenetrable takedown defense (93%) as a result of just being so big. The 6’4” fighter cuts to 265 pounds.

Bellator alum Tyrell Fortune got a similar treatment without a DWCS appearance. He was dropped into the rankings against Marcin Tybura. He won by unanimous decision, but his -17 striking differential didn’t show his best effort.

Blaydes and Almeida averaged at least 5.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, and they combined to land just 2-of-23 takedown attempts against Kuniev. Fortune, a former Division II college wrestling champion, is certainly a plus wrestler, but he might have to win this fight with his hands.

Predict the Kuniev vs. Fortune Winner at UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Kuniev vs. Fortune Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Tyrell Fortune – 27.5 Significant Strikes

Kuniev and Fortune’s fight time projection is set at 14.99 minutes on PrizePicks — or, essentially, picking whether the fight will or won't go the 15-minute distance. The 27.5 significant strikes looks like a low mark in a fight where Fortune, as mentioned, might struggle to wrestle.

That’s especially the case when Kuniev’s striking defense (48%) is just okay thus far. I would project the best mark of the Russian’s three-fight career, though, when Fortune’s reach (75”) is considerably smaller than either Blaydes (80”) or Almeida (79”). That’s a lot of free jabs and low kicks that might not quite be as easy to project for him.

The largest obstacle to this total might be that, when Fortune loses, he tends to do so emphatically. Two of his three pro setbacks were via early finish. He was submitted and knocked out in his time with the PFL/Bellator enterprise.

Make Your Kuniev vs. Fortune Pick for UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev Prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi

Fight Winner Payouts: Abubakar Vagaev 1.35x | Saygid Izagakhmaev 3.03x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

Abu Dhabi cards will bring out the best talent Russia has to offer, and that’s true in this “Khamzat vs. Khabib” battle of the two legends’ training partners.

Abubakar Vagaev makes his UFC debut, which might be a long time coming at 33 years old. Vagaev is a multiple-time champion in Russia with ACA, the same promotion that birthed Khamzat Chimaev.

Entertainment value might be why Vagaev has yet to gain real UFC traction; 19 of his 24 pro wins are by decision. He’s also battled issues with his durability at times, losing the 170-pound ACA belt at one point.

Therefore, I’m interested in this debut opposite an Eagles MMA entrant, Saygid Izagakhmaev, off a disappointing first outing in UFC.

Izagakhmaev lost his inaugural start to Nicolas “Lokomotivo” Dalby, who also notably upset Gabriel Bonfim and Rinat Fakhretdinov on their way toward the rankings. He’s just a veteran grinder who was able to outlast the Russian’s early control.

From that first fight, I am still impressed by Izagakhmaev’s striking accuracy (58%) and defense (58%) as the longer fighter here. However, Vagaev’s decision rate suggests Izagakhmaev's endurance will need to be in a better place for this fight, or the favorite might take over late.

Predict the Vagaev vs. Izagakhmaev Winner at UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Vagaev vs. Izagakhmaev Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Abubakar Vagaev – 30.5 Significant Strikes

Any significant strikes at all in a matchup like this will be a sweat. These two wrestlers might try to assert their dominance in that domain. This might also devolve into a sloppy striking battle with that area equal. You truly never know.

I will say that Vagaev is likely the fighter who wants to push the pace and wrestle. Dalby posted just 26 significant strikes, but 6:52 in control time as he ground Izagakhmaev to a pulp.

If that’s the game plan, striking totals might be compromised on both sides. There’s also the chin concerns for Khamzat’s disciple, which I’m not sure are getting enough credit when the underdog put some really dangerous combinations on tape during his time with ONE Championship:

Make Your Vagaev vs. Izagakhmaev Pick for UFC Abu Dhabi on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Fight Night: How It Works

I've created a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights do not have results.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions on PrizePicks

Led by a heavyweight showdown Magomed Anakalev vs. Bogdan Guskov in Saturday afternoon's main event, the UFC Abu Dhabi is stacked with talented fighters that are new to the promotion and looking to climb up the ranks.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 12 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the undercard starting bright and early at 9 a.m. ET.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Fight Night, headlined by Anakalev vs. Guskov, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 35 states!

Stay tapped into Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.