On Saturday, the UFC ends the ESPN era with a banger with a UFC 323 fight card from Las Vegas that promises high-octane action from start to finish.
The UFC 323 card features two championship bouts; but before getting to the title fights, Payton Talbott vs. Henry Cejudo will face off in a matchup of rising potential star vs. a former UFC champion on his way out.
This bantamweight showdown carries massive implications for both fighters' legacies. For Cejudo, it represents a potential final statement in a storied career, while for Talbott, a victory cements his place as a legitimate threat in one of the UFC's deepest divisions and propels him into title contention territory.
We’ll break down our Payton Talbott vs. Henry Cejudo prediction and UFC 323 expert pick below, including PrizePicks UFC picks and key stats for this high-level showdown between two of the UFC’s best bantamweights.
Payton Talbott vs. Henry Cejudo Pick, Preview at UFC 323
Cejudo enters as an underdog at UFC 323, carrying a 2.94x payout projection if he wins on PrizePicks Team Picks, while Talbott's payout is 1.36x with a win (payouts subject to change). On Team Picks, you can make picks on UFC fights to earn money if you're right.
Talbott (10-1) enters UFC 323 as a rising star eager to make a statement against one of combat sports' most decorated legends, Henry Cejudo.
The 27-year-old possesses a significant size advantage, standing 5'10" with a 70.5-inch reach, allowing him to operate at range and land explosive strikes from distance.
Talbott boasts an 80% finishing rate and has demonstrated the ability to end fights in brutal fashion, most recently securing a technical knockout against Yanis Ghemmouri in just 19 seconds.
On the other side, Henry Cejudo (16-5) is looking to salvage the rest of what should be a hall of fame career, entering UFC 323 on a three-fight losing skid following his return from retirement in 2023. The former two-division UFC champion still possesses elite wrestling credentials and Olympic-caliber grappling, but at 38 years old, "Triple C" is significantly smaller at 5'4" with a 64-inch reach.
Cejudo's path to victory relies on closing distance, securing takedowns, and grinding out control, as his striking has noticeably diminished since his initial retirement.
The stylistic contrast is striking: Talbott's aggressive, high-output striking paired with his improved takedown defense creates a real test for Cejudo's ability to implement his wrestling game.
If Talbott can keep Cejudo at range and capitalize on his physical advantages early, the young prospect could establish himself as a legitimate title contender. However, Cejudo's championship experience and technical acumen cannot be dismissed, as the former champ has proven capable of making opponents uncomfortable for full fights despite recent setbacks.
Payton Talbott vs. Henry Cejudo Start Time, Stats, How Each Wins
Payton Talbott enters UFC 323 as the clear favorite, and for good reason — his explosive striking velocity, superior footwork, and impressive nine-fight winning streak have made him the most dangerous young prospect in the bantamweight division.
The rising phenom boasts a 54% striking accuracy with 46% striking defense, demonstrating both offensive firepower and defensive awareness that sets him apart from his competition.
For as effective as Talbott is with his striking volume and precision, his wrestling defense remains a potential vulnerability that cannot be overlooked in this matchup.
Talbott showed gaps in his sprawling and scrambling against competent grapplers in January, though he rebounded with solid takedown defense in his most recent outing against Lima — landing good sprawls and reversals — making this a critical variable heading into this bout.
Meanwhile, Cejudo brings Olympic-level wrestling credentials and championship composure that demand respect in any matchup.
Triple C's elite takedown precision and ability to chain offensive wrestling sequences create multiple pathways to control and potentially frustrate Talbott's striking game, though his recent striking accuracy has declined to 47%.
Cejudo's path to victory hinges on establishing his wrestling early, maintaining clinch control, and using his superior grappling to neutralize Talbott's striking advantage. If Triple C can impose his wrestling identity and avoid desperation situations, his elite mat control and ground-and-pound could wear down the younger fighter over three rounds.
UFC 323 Talbott vs. Cejudo Start Time, How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: Main Card – 10 p.m. ET | Talbott vs. Cejudo Start Time – 10:30 p.m. ET (estimate)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- TV: ESPN+ PPV
Payton Talbott Stats for UFC 323
Overall Record: 10-1
UFC Record: 14-2
Last 5 Fights: 4-1
Height: 5’10"
Reach: 70”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.5
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.2
Last Fight: Win vs. Felipe Lima by Decision
Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Henry Cejudo Stats for UFC 323
Overall Record: 16-5
UFC Record: 10-5
Last 5 Fights: 2-3
Height: 5’4"
Reach: 64”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.8
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 1.8
Last Fight: Win vs. Marcus McGhee by Decision
Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Payton Talbott vs. Henry Cejudo Prediction, Pick for UFC 323
Here is our expert UFC 322 prediction and pick for Dvalishvili vs. Yan. All picks are available via PrizePicks MMA board.
Talbott vs. Cejudo Pick: Henry Cejudo — 41.5 Significant Strikes
- Cejudo lands 3.82 significant strikes per minute with an average fight time of 13:34. Over a full 15-minute fight, this pace projects to 57 significant strikes landed.
- In his most recent three-round fight against Song Yadong, Cejudo landed 67 significant strikes.
- Talbott’s defense is porous, absorbing 3.26 significant strikes per minute with a defensive rate of just 46%.
- Even against the elites like Aljamain Sterling (99 strikes landed), Dominick Cruz (53 strikes landed), and Demetrious Johnson (51 strikes landed), Cejudo has proven he can maintain a high output against the best.
- Talbott’s aggressive style forces high-output exchanges for both fighters. His fights average over 10 combined significant strikes landed per minute.
Make Talbott vs. Cejudo Picks on PrizePicks
Talbott vs. Cejudo will be broadcast live on ESPN+ PPV from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, this Saturday, December 6.
This bantamweight bout pits the former flyweight and bantamweight champion “Triple C” Henry Cejudo — who will be making his last walk to the octagon — against rising prospect Payton Talbott.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 323 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the bantamweight main event. Pick your fighters, and win cash if you're right.
Just go to the PrizePicks MMA board, pick two or more UFC fighter projections, lock in your Lineup, and cash in if your picks are on point.
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