The UFC returns to Las Vegas on Saturday, December 6, for UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 at T-Mobile Arena.
The UFC 323, with the main card scheduled for 10 p.m. ET, headlined by two title fights: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan in a rematch of a recent bantamweight title bout, and Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van in the flyweight title bout.
This marks the UFC's final PPV event before the ESPN era concludes and the new Paramount partnership begins in 2026.
We'll breakdown the best UFC 323 predictions, with one pick for every main card fight, including PrizePicks MMA picks — where you can pick More or Less on fighter stats to win real money if you're right.
Also find the UFC 323 fight payouts from PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can pick fight winners and earn money if you're right — now available in California, Florida, and 20 more states!
Let's get into our UFC 323 predictions and picks for PrizePicks UFC tonight.
UFC 323 Predictions, Preview for Main Card Fights
Let us set the stage for what is a loaded UFC 323 main card tonight — get ready for some high-level MMA action, including two title fights.
Merab Dvalishvili (21-4) puts his bantamweight title on the line as he looks to make UFC history with a fourth title defense in a single calendar year. Yan (19-5) earned this rematch with three straight wins and claims injuries compromised their 2023 meeting, but Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling and cardio make him the heavy favorite once again.
The co-main event showcases Alexandre Pantoja (30-5) defending his flyweight title for the fifth time against surging contender Joshua Van (15-2). Pantoja brings elite grappling and championship experience, but the 24-year-old Van's five-fight win streak and knockout power make this a compelling clash between a veteran and a rising star.
Former champion Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) battles surging Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira (17-1) in a pivotal flyweight bout. Moreno's experience and technical boxing skills could be the difference, although Taira's submission game and youth make for tough opposition in a potential title eliminator.
Henry Cejudo (16-4) enters what could be his final fight against red-hot prospect Payton Talbott (10-1) in a bantamweight clash. Cejudo's championship pedigree is undeniable, but Talbott's significant reach advantage and knockout power make the younger fighter a heavy favorite to derail the legend's farewell.
Former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) opens the main card against knockout artist Bogdan Guskov (16-2) in a 205-pound showdown. Blachowicz seeks to snap a three-fight winless skid, yet Guskov's devastating right hand and four-fight stoppage streak make this a dangerous test for the Polish veteran.
UFC 323 Predictions & PrizePicks Picks
Here are our expert UFC 323 predictions and picks. All picks are available via PrizePicks UFC board. Also listed are UFC 323 payout projections on PrizePicks as of Friday, December 5 — all payouts are subject to change.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan Prediction for UFC 323
Dvalishvili vs. Yan Winner Payout on PrizePicks Team Picks: Dvalishvili 1.21x | Yan 4.16x
UFC 323 Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili + Petr Yan – 180.5 Significant Strikes (Combo)
- In their first meeting, Dvalishvili outlanded Yan 147-75 in significant strikes (222 combined).
- In three of Dvalishvili’s last four five-round fights produced 215 (Nurmagomedov), 194 (Sandhagen), and 129 (O’Malley) combined significant strikes, averaging roughly 190+ per fight.
- Yan’s last four five-round fights have seen combined totals of 277 (Aldo), 318 (Sandhagen), 125 (Sterling) and 174 (Figueiredo), averaging 223 significant strikes.
- Yan lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute with 54% accuracy.
- Dvalishvili lands 4.33 per minute and absorbs only 2.55.
- Against Yan the first time, Dvalishvili fired off 338 significant strike attempts and 49 takedown attempts, and he now owns the bantamweight record for total strikes (2,476) and takedowns (117) landed.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction for UFC 323
Pantoja vs. Van Winner Payout on PrizePicks Team Picks: Pantoja 1.36x | Van 2.85x
UFC 323 Prediction: Joshua Van – 88.5 Significant Strikes
- Van lands 8.86 significant strikes per minute — the highest rate in UFC history — with an average fight time of about 13:46.
- At his career pace, Van lands roughly 119 significant strikes over a typical 3‑round fight.
- Van has recorded massive outputs in his UFC career, eclipsing 88.5 significant strikes landed in 6 of his 9 fights.
- He most recently landed 204 significant strikes (13.6 per minute) against Brandon Royval in a three-round decision.
- In three out of Pantoja’s last five 5‑round title fights that have gone the distance, his opponents (Moreno, Royval, Erceg) landed 147, 111, and 111 significant strikes against him.
- Pantoja absorbs around 3.88 significant strikes per minute while giving his own high output; in a back‑and‑forth 5‑round pace, Van needs only about 10 minutes at his normal 8.86 SLpM to clear 88.5 significant strikes.
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira Prediction for UFC 323
Moreno vs. Taira Winner Payout on PrizePicks Team Picks: Moreno 2x | Taira 1.72x
UFC 323 Pick: Brandon Moreno + Tatsuro Taira – 87.5 Significant Strikes (Combo)
- Moreno lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute, while Taira connects at 2.87 per minute, resulting in a combined rate of 6.83 significant strikes per minute, which projects to roughly 102 combined significant strikes in a 15-minute fight.
- In Moreno's three-round fights that went the distance, he's averaged 70+ combined significant strikes.
- Those fights include 173 combined vs. Kai Kara-France, 124 combined vs. Pantoja I, and 77 combined vs. Ryan Benoit.
- Tatsuro Taira combined for 166 significant strikes in his five-round fight against Brandon Royval — and even in a three-round decision vs. Edgar Chairez, the fight produced 86 combined significant strikes despite Taira's dominant grappling control.
- Taira lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute with a 60% accuracy rate while absorbing 2.69 per minute — meaning his opponents are active, and fights featuring him tend to stay competitive on the feet when standing.
- Moreno's last three-round fight was against Jussier Formiga in March 2020, where he combined for 48 significant strikes in a decision.
- Since then, he's averaged 4+ significant strikes per minute across five-round wars, projecting roughly 60+ strikes alone in 15 minutes.
Payton Talbott vs. Henry Cejudo Prediction for UFC 323
Talbott vs. Cejudo Winner Payout on PrizePicks Team Picks: Talbott 1.36x | Cejudo 2.94x
UFC 323 Prediction: Payton Talbott — 58.5 Significant Strikes
- Talbott averages 6.05 significant strikes landed per minute at 54% accuracy, while Cejudo sits at 3.82 and 47% — over a full 15 minutes, that pace projects to roughly 91 significant strikes for Talbott versus 57 for Cejudo.
- Across his six UFC/Contender Series appearances, Talbott has landed 373 significant strikes — about 62 per fight — and has exceeded 59 in three of them.
- Aljamain Sterling landed 135 significant strikes in five rounds, Merab Dvalishvili 74 in three, and Song Yadong 84 in three — an average of 97 significant strikes landed per fight against Cejudo in his last three.
- Talbott will have a major size and reach edge (6 inches of height and 7 inches in reach), and in Cejudo’s last two fights against longer strikers, Sterling and Yadong attempted 210 and 178 significant strikes and landed 135 and 84.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction for UFC 323
Blachowicz vs. Guskov Winner Payout on PrizePicks Team Picks: Blachowicz 1.75x | Guskov 2x
UFC 323 Prediction: Bogdan Guskov — 28.5 Significant Strikes
- Guskov has landed at least 23 significant strikes in each of his last three UFC wins, including 47 against Billy Elekana, 31 against Ryan Spann.
- The Uzbek lands 4.17 significant strikes per minute with a 55% striking accuracy, meaning he only needs approximately seven minutes of fight time to surpass 28.5 significant strikes at his average.
- Blachowicz has absorbed 223 significant strikes (74.3 average) in his last three fights, which have gone the distance.
- The 42-year-old former champion has a strike defense rate of just 52%, meaning opponents — a favorable matchup for Guskov's high-volume, power-punching style.
- Guskov has averaged 33.7 significant strikes per fight across his last three victories, totaling 101 significant strikes in that span while finishing all three opponents by stoppage.
Make UFC 323 Predictions, Picks on PrizePicks
UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan is set to be a thrilling fight card on Saturday, with two title fights lined up as the main and co-main events, plus plenty of important fights on the main card.
Dvalishvili attempts to defend his undisputed title for the fourth time this year, meanwhile Yan looks to become a two-time UFC bantamweight champion.
The main card gets underway at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, broadcasting live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
Before you watch the fights, you’re going to want to lock in your UFC picks on PrizePicks – it’s the simplest way to win real money if your predictions are right on UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
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