On Saturday, fans get a loaded UFC 323 fight card from Las Vegas in the final PPV event of the year. At the top of the UFC 323 bill is a championship double-header, as the co-main event brings a compelling flyweight title clash as dominant champion Alexandre Pantoja puts his belt on the line against surging contender Joshua Van inside of T-Mobile Arena.
We’ll break down our Pantoja vs. Van prediction and UFC 323 expert pick for tonight below, including PrizePicks UFC picks and key stats for this high-level showdown between two of the UFC’s best flyweights.
This flyweight championship bout between Pantoja vs. Van carries massive implications tonight, and it's been months in the making.
Pantoja, the defending champion, looks to extend his legacy with a fifth consecutive title defense, while Joshua Van is a rising challenger who will become the second-youngest UFC champion and claim the undisputed king of one of the UFC's most dynamic divisions with a win.
However, Van is a significant underdog, with a 2.85x projected payout if he wins, win per PrizePicks Team Picks payouts — where you can pick fight winners and earn money if your UFC picks are right, now available in California, Florida, and 20 more states.
Pantoja vs. Van Pick, Preview at UFC 323
Pantoja vs. Van Winner Payout on PrizePicks Team Picks: Pantoja 1.36x | Van 2.85x (Team Picks payouts are subject to change)
Alexandre Pantoja (30-5) enters UFC 323 as the relentless and technical flyweight champion, riding dominance through four consecutive title defenses. His most recent performance was a masterful submission over Kai Kara-France, where his superior grappling, footwork control, and fight IQ dismantled a dangerous striker.
Before that, Pantoja secured a statement win over newcomer Kai Asakura, showcasing his dominant wrestling pressure and suffocating grappling that overwhelmed a credible contender. Now, with the flyweight title on the line, the Brazilian champion looks to extend his reign and cement himself as one of the division's all-time greats.
On the other side, Joshua Van (15-2) is looking to shock the world and dethrone the champion. The American striker built his name on rising momentum, fearless striking combinations, and counter punching that has carried him through the flyweight ranks at an accelerated pace.
Van's recent performances showcase a fighter hitting his stride with decisive victories over the likes of Brandon Royval and Bruno Silva, reminding everyone why he earned this opportunity despite questions about his experience level.
With a shot at the belt, he'll be hunting the upset while aiming to prove his youth and striking can overwhelm even a seasoned champion like Pantoja.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Start Time, Stats, How Each Wins
Alexandre Pantoja has been one of the most efficient grapplers the flyweight division has ever seen, and his composure inside the clinch sets him apart from the rest of the competition. His crisp takedown entries, sharp transitions, and powerful ground control make him an immediate threat to anyone who engages.
What makes Pantoja dangerous is his submission threat and accuracy — he rarely wastes energy and has the ability to maintain constant pressure without overextending himself. If he can establish his wrestling and grappling early and control the pace, he has the tools to neutralize Van's striking in ways few have managed to do.
However, Van presents the kind of stylistic challenge that can trouble even the most polished grapplers. His explosive striking volume, dynamic footwork, and sharp counters have caught elite opponents off-guard time and again.
Van's striking continues to evolve as well, allowing him to set up combinations behind slick counters and powerful boxing. Once he establishes his rhythm, his output and pace can completely overwhelm an opponent's defense.
While Van's offensive striking will likely create exciting moments early, Pantoja's grappling edge and championship experience could possibly tip the scales in his favor. Pantoja controls the mat, while Van hunts the knockout through relentless striking volume and pace.
UFC 323 Pantoja vs. Van Start Time, How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: Main Card – 10 p.m. ET | Pantoja vs. Van Start Time – 11:30 p.m. ET (estimate)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- TV: ESPN+ PPV
Alexandre Pantoja Stats for UFC 323
Overall Record: 30-5
UFC Record: 14-3
Last 5 Fights: 5-0
Height: 5’5"
Reach: 67”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.3
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 2.8
Last Fight: Win vs. Kai Kara France by Submission
Finishes: 20 (8 KO/TKO/12 SUB)
Joshua Van Stats for UFC 323
Overall Record: 15-2
UFC Record: 8-1
Last 5 Fights: 5-0
Height: 5’5"
Reach: 65”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 8.8
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.8
Last Fight: Win vs. Brandon Royval by Decision
Finishes: 9 (7 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction, Pick for UFC 323
Here is our expert UFC 323 prediction and pick for Pantoja vs. Van. All picks are available via PrizePicks MMA board.
Pantoja vs. Van Pick: Alexandre Pantoja – 3.5 Takedowns
- Pantoja has been training in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu since 2007 and is a highly decorated BJJ black belt under the American Top Team lineage.
- The Brazilian champion has secured 10 of his 30 career victories by submission and has never been finished in his MMA career.
- "The Cannibal" averages 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and has successfully landed 23 takedowns in his last three title fights alone.
- Joshua Van has conceded 10 takedowns in four out of his last five fights.
- The UFC flyweight king has exceeded 3.5 takedowns in three of his last five octagon appearances, landing 9, 8, 6, and 3 takedowns in those bouts.
Make Your Pantoja vs. Van Pick on PrizePicks
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van will be broadcast live on ESPN+ PPV from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, this Saturday, December 6.
This co-main event flyweight title fight pits the reigning and defending flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, who will put his title on the line for the fifth time, against the young, up-and-coming contender Joshua Van.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 323 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the bantamweight main event. Pick your fighters, and win cash if you're right.
Just go to the PrizePicks MMA board, pick two or more UFC fighter projections, lock in your Lineup, and cash in if your picks are on point.
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