Twins vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for Saturday, July 4

First pitch of the matchup between the Minnesota Twins (42-47) and the New York Yankees (49-38) is set for 1:35 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 4, with the Yankees favored and returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks with a victory.

The Yankees and Twins are two teams not playing well at the moment and needing to build momentum because they remain in playoff contention. The Yankees, specifically, are playing their worst baseball of the year and have lost their lead in the American League East to the Rays, going from 3.5 games up on June 17 to 4 games behind.

Below, we'll break down our Twins vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Twins vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game.

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Twins vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, July 4

The Twins will start SP Zebby Matthews (4.26 xFIP in 56.1 IP, 9 starts). It was originally supposed to be SP Connor Prielipp, but the Twins have decided to skip him this week. Matthews' 4.15 ERA doesn’t look great, but it stems from two outings in which he allowed 7 earned runs. Other than those starts, he’s been fantastic, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs six times.

Matthews is pitching well, but it’s not helping with the Twins' lack of consistency. They've gone on extended winning and losing streaks, including four instances of winning four or more consecutive games and three instances of losing four or more straight.

Although they are below .500, the parity in the American League is keeping them in contention, as they're just 5 games out in the AL Central and 3.5 games away from the third Wild Card spot.

With SP Carlos Rodón going on the IL with elbow inflammation, New York is turning to 27-year-old Brendan Beck on Saturday. He has just 3.0 big-league innings to his name, owning a 6.00 ERA after getting roughed up via 3 walks and 2 runs back on May 7. This will be his debut as a starter.

The Yankees could use a good effort here because they came into this series losing seven straight for the first time since 2023. The injuries are beginning to catch up to them, and the offense without RF Aaron Judge and DH Giancarlo Stanton is suffering. In June, New York was 26th in wOBA (.298) and wRAA (-14.6).

Twins vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, July 4

The Yankees enter Saturday’s game as home favorites against the Twins, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Twins vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (2.12x payout)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (1.78x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Twins 2.32x | Yankees 1.56x

Play the Twins vs. Yankees spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Twins vs. Yankees Prediction on Winner – 7/4/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Twins vs. Yankees prediction on the winner for Saturday, July 4.

Lock in your Twins vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Beck showed far more impressive stuff in Triple-A this year, posting a 3.07 ERA with a 9.31 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9 in 88 innings — all from starts.
• Matthews gets roughed up at the start of the game with a 7.00 ERA in the first inning. The Yankees are fifth in the league with 0.62 first-inning runs per game.
• The Yankees seem to have the Twins’ number, having won 10 of their last 12 meetings dating back to 2024.
• The Twins have not been successful with Matthews on the mound, going 4-5 in his starts, including 2-3 on the road.
• If the Yankees don’t get to Matthews, they could do well against the Twins' bullpen. It's one of the worst in MLB, ranking 29th in xFIP (4.91) and ERA (5.37).

Twins vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/4/26

Here are the top Twins vs. Yankees picks to target on Saturday, July 4. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Luke Keaschall and Ben Rice.

Twins 2B Luke Keaschall vs. Yankees: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• This season, Keaschall has a .305 wOBA against righties. When facing right-handed hitters himself n Triple-A this year, however, Beck maintained a .195 batting average and 1.07 WHIP allowed.
• Keaschall has a 28.3% hard-hit rate, which is only in the eighth percentile. He doesn't chase often (22.7%, 86th percentile), but his lack of loud contact could limit his production.
• He has not played well at Yankee Stadium, going 1-for-12 in his career.
• Beck went to his slider 35% of the time in his debut earlier this season. Keaschall slugs just .348 with a .308 xSLG against the offering.

Add Luke Keaschall to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Yankees 1B Ben Rice vs. Twins: 1.5 Total Bases

• Rice has a nice track record against Matthews, going 4-for-6 lifetime with a double and home run.
• Left-handed hitters are hitting very well against Matthews with a .338 wOBA compared to .287 against righties. This could benefit the lefty Rice.
• Rice has one of the best barrel rates in the league at 14.1%, which resides in the 87th percentile. That’s one of Matthews’ weaknesses, as he’s allowing a 12.5% barrel rate that ranks in the fifth percentile.
• Matthews heavily favors his four-seamer, throwing it 37% of the time to left-handed batters. Rice destroys four-seamers to the tune of a .568 wOBA and a 283 wRC+.

Add Ben Rice to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Twins vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

The Yankees and Twins meet in a Fourth of July matinee. With both teams sitting in second place in their respective divisions, they need to figure out how to start winning games — especially the Yankees, who are experiencing one of their worst losing streaks in recent years.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Twins vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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