Twins vs. Guardians Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, July 23

The Minnesota Twins will play the final game of their four-game set against the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, July 23 at 1:10 p.m. ET. Cleveland is favored against Minnesota, returning a 1.66x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks to land in the win column in Thursday’s afternoon matchup.

The Guardians were able to secure wins in each of the opening two games of the series. However, the Twins erased an early deficit and came away with a 10-6 triumph against their American League Central rivals on Wednesday. 

Below, we'll break down our Twins vs. Guardians prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB game, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Twins vs. Guardians Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 23

The AL Central is one of the more closely contested races in baseball. The Chicago White Sox are currently on top, but the Guardians (1 game back) and the Twins (5 back) aren’t far behind in the standings.

Runs have certainly been a common theme throughout this series. The Guardians have outscored the Twins 24-16, but it’s possible that runs could be at a premium based on the pitching matchup in Thursday’s afternoon tilt.

The Twins will be aiming to salvage a split against the Guardians when they send SP Taj Bradley to the mound. Bradley is coming off an outing in which he surrendered 5 earned runs in 5.0 innings against the Chicago Cubs but had allowed 2 or fewer runs in each of his previous five starts.

Meanwhile, SP Gavin Williams will be on the hill for the Guardians against the Twins. Williams has registered a 10.9 K/9 rate, which is tied for fourth in the majors behind only Jacob Misiorowski (13.5), Dylan Cease (13.4), and Jesus Luzardo (11.2). He has also yielded 2 or fewer runs in three of his last five starts.

From an offensive standpoint, the Twins rank seventh in the majors in wRC+ (104), according to FanGraphs. On the other hand, the Guardians have struggled at times, producing a wRC+ of 95 (22nd).

Twins vs. Guardians Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, July 23

The Guardians enter Thursday's game as a home favorite against the Twins, returning a 1.66x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Twins vs. Guardians game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (2.43x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Twins 2.12x | Guardians 1.66x

Make your Twins vs. Guardians prediction on winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Twins vs. Guardians Prediction on Over/Under – 7/23/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Twins vs. Guardians prediction on the over/under for Thursday, July 23.

• The under is 3-0 in the last three games that Williams has started.
• According to Baseball Savant, Williams has tallied an average fastball velocity of 96.9 mph, which ranks in the 86th percentile.
• The Guardians’ right-hander is tied for fourth in the majors in strikeouts (145), behind only Jacob Misiorowski (173), Dylan Cease (155), and Cristopher Sanchez (151).
• Meanwhile, Bradley has registered a 27.2% K-rate, ranking in the 79th percentile. On the other hand, the Guardians have recorded a 22.5% strikeout rate in 2026 (12th).
• With that said, Bradley has been vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 4 home runs in his last three starts. In 2026, the veteran right-hander has yielded a career-high 44.9% fly ball rate.
• The Guardians rank 29th in runs (410), with only the Toronto Blue Jays (400) scoring fewer.

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Twins vs. Guardians Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/23/26

Here are the top Twins vs. Guardians picks to target on Thursday, July 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Gavin Williams and Byron Buxton.

Guardians SP Gavin Williams vs. Twins: 6.5 Strikeouts 

• Williams has registered at least 7 strikeouts in three of his last five starts, including tallying 11 in each of his last two outings.
• The Guardians’ starter has recorded a 29.9% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 94th percentile.
• Williams has also tallied a 29.7% whiff rate (80th percentile).
• The Twins have averaged 9.0 strikeouts across this set against the Guardians.

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Twins OF Byron Buxton vs. Guardians: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Buxton is hitting .455 (5-for-11) with 2 RBI and a run in his last four games.
• The Twins’ star OF has registered at least 2 hits, RBI, and runs in two of those contests.
• Buxton owns an 18.1% barrel rate during this season, which ranks in the 97th percentile.
• The three-time All-Star has had at least a hit in each of his last four contests.

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Guardians SP Gavin Williams and Twins SP Taj Bradley have had a knack for mowing down opposing hitters. With two pitchers boasting overpowering stuff being on the mound, there may not be a large amount of runs scored in Thursday’s matinee contest. 

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Twins vs. Guardians picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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