Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Wednesday, July 1

There’s no shortage of MLB hype on Wednesday, as the slate contains 14 games that pit 28 of the league’s 30 teams against each other. That opens the door for ample home run potential, but which players will be the ones to make the most of it?

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Wednesday, July 1, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Wednesday, July 1 on PrizePicks now.  

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, July 1

As the summer rolls on, (mostly) gone are the days of cold conditions making it more difficult to launch a baseball out of the park. Rising temperatures and less rain both add more excitement to games, but weather is just one of many factors that go into swatting a homer. 

Elements like bat speed, launch angle, ballpark dimensions, and so much more play roles in where a batted-ball event ends. Additionally, pitcher and matchup splits make things even trickier to predict. That doesn’t mean fans can’t try, though. 

Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.

1. Pirates LF Esmerlyn Valdez
2. Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte
3. Padres 3B Manny Machado
4. Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson
5. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
6. Braves 1B Matt Olson
7. Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe
8. Athletics C Shea Langeliers

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Pirates LF Esmerlyn Valdez

Pirates vs. Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET

Phillies Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler

MLB Weather Report: 95 degrees, partly cloudy, 9 mph south-southwest wind

• Just 17 games into his big-league career, Valdez already has 6 home runs to go with a .771 SLG. He has a video game-like 206 wRC+. 
• Valdez’s power production is proven, as evidenced by his 26 bombs and .520 SLG in the minors a year ago and his 13 and .526, respectively, in Triple-A to kick off this year.
• The first-year man swings hard and makes the most of those efforts, possessing a 75.2 mph average bat speed and a 38.9% squared-up contact percentage.
• While Valdez’s sample size isn’t large enough to qualify for Savant’s percentile rankings yet, he’s been downright elite in barrel rate (34.5%), hard-hit rate (65.5%), and several more categories.
• Wheeler is undoubtedly a dominant pitcher, but he resides in the 60th percentile for barrel rate (6.9%) and owns a 35.4% hard-hit rate allowed that’s the third-highest of his career. 

Add Esmerlyn Valdez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Padres 3B Manny Machado

Padres vs. Cubs – 2:20 p.m. ET

Cubs Starting Pitcher: Colin Rea

MLB Weather Report: 93 degrees, clear skies, 12 mph south-southwest wind

• Some rotten batted-ball luck has robbed Machado of production, as his .191 BABIP is easily the worst of his MLB tenure. Still, he maintains a .209 ISO that’s right in line with his career mark of .207.
• The Padres’ star infielder is heating up in the month of June, with his SLG (.490), OPS (.778) and fly ball share (51.9%) all being his best of the year. 
• This is the second consecutive season in which Rea has ceded a double-digit barrel rate and his fifth straight year yielding a hard-hit rate of 41% or higher. 
• Machado is 4-for-6 lifetime against Rea with a home run and an absurd 1.167 SLG. 
• Rea is struggling peripherally this year, with his 11.1% barrel rate ranking in the 11th percentile and an 89.9 mph average exit velocity slotting into the 27th percentile. 

Add Manny Machado to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Braves 1B Matt Olson

Cardinals vs. Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET

Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Michael McGreevy

MLB Weather Report: 89 degrees, partly cloudy, 4 mph east wind

• Olson is experiencing a return closer to his previous form in the power department. The veteran first baseman’s .254 ISO, .529 SLG, and 17.9% HR/FB ratio are all his best since 2023. 
• Even at the age of 32, Olson’s swinging the bat as hard as ever. He owns a 75.0 mph bat speed and a 19.7% blast contact clip, both personal records in three years of tracking.
• The former 2012 MLB Draft selection sits in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate (51.2%) and the 86th for barrel rate (13.7%). 
• McGreevy limits walks tremendously, but that’s about it. He doesn’t miss bats (seventh percentile whiff rate) and gives up a ton of loud contact, shown by his 9.1% barrel rate (28th percentile).
• The sweeper is one of McGreevy’s worst-performing pitches; opponents are slugging .815 against it. Olson fares well when thrown the offering, posting an xSLG of .499.

Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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There could be a dozen or more home runs if everything breaks right on Wednesday afternoon and evening. With that said, the trio of Valdez, Machado, and Olson could add to that total given their matchups and recent performance. 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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