Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Tuesday, July 21

It’s yet another jam-packed day of baseball early in the second half of the MLB season, featuring 15 games on Tuesday night for fans to enjoy. With players taking the field in a handful of hours, which ones could stuff the stat sheets with a home run or two? 

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Tuesday, July 21, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Tuesday, July 21 on PrizePicks now.  

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Tuesday, July 21

The MLB home run leaderboard contains household names, proven veterans, and young stars alike. While every dinger is different, there are certain things players can do to put themselves in better positions to hit one.

First and foremost, weather is something that’s overlooked when it comes to the long ball. Ballpark dimensions must also be taken into account. From there, how does a pitcher match up with a hitter? How fast does the hitter swing, and where on the bat does he make contact? What’s his launch angle, and how much pure strength does he have?

That’s just the tip of the iceberg, but all of it can help when making home run predictions. 

Which players could be in good positions to swat a homer on Tuesday? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.

1. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
2. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
3. Braves 1B Matt Olson
4. Twins CF Byron Buxton
5. Nationals SS CJ Abrams
6. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
7. Tigers C Dillon Dingler
8. Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Braves 1B Matt Olson

Padres vs. Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET

Padres Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler

MLB Weather Report: 88 degrees, clear skies, 9 mph south wind

• Although Olson’s OBP is 25 points lower than it was a season ago, his wRC+ is almost identical thanks to an improved SLG (+.050) and him already being at 26 home runs in 99 games. He played all 162 in 2025 and got to 29 jacks. 
• Olson has slightly improved his average launch angle to 17.4 degrees, his highest since 2020 as a member of the then-Oakland Athletics.
• Despite turning 32 earlier this year, Olson’s fast-swing percentage (51.1%) is by far the quickest in three years of tracking.
• The slugging first baseman sits in the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity (92.6 mph), hard-hit rate (51.1%), and xSLG (.513).
• Buehler is in the 26th percentile in hard-hit clip (42.2%) and the 30th percentile in barrel rate (9.0%). 

Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Nationals SS CJ Abrams

Nationals vs. Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET

Rockies Starting Pitcher: Michael Lorenzen

MLB Weather Report: 89 degrees, 33% chance of rain, 11 mph southeast wind

• Abrams’ ISO has jumped from .176 in 2025 to .245 in 2026, and he’s already set a new career high with 22 home runs (and likely counting).
• The smooth-hitting shortstop’s 18.7-degree launch angle is a new personal high, as are his 10.4% barrel rate and 42.3% hard-hit share.
• The young infielder is routinely maximizing contact, owning a 33.5% squared-up contact percentage and a 15.9% blast contact rate.
• Dating back to 2022, Lorenzen has a 4.60 xERA and a 1.26 HR/9 mark on just a .285 opposing BABIP.
• Lorenzen is getting hit for loud contact this year, ranking in the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate (46.4%) while also not missing many bats (fifth percentile in chase rate, ninth percentile in whiff rate). 

Add CJ Abrams to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Tigers C Dillon Dingler

Tigers vs. Cubs – 8:05 p.m. ET

Cubs Starting Pitcher: David Peterson

MLB Weather Report: 77 degrees, 39% chance of rain, 17 mph north wind

• Dingler is experiencing a huge power surge in year No. 3, clubbing a personal best 21 homers with a .256 ISO and .524 SLG. 
• The Tigers’ power-hitting backstop has cut down his ground ball split and increased his fly ball rates in each year with the team. This year, those marks are 35.7% and 44.5%, respectively.
• An optimized approach is fueling Dingler’s success, backed by a 41.1% launch angle sweet-spot figure that resides in the 96th percentile.
• Peterson’s 8.5-degree launch angle is his highest allowed since 2021, and a 30.3% fly ball value is the most since his debut campaign in 2020. 

Add Dillon Dingler to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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There likely won’t be a shortage of home runs on Tuesday night. Could the trio of Olson, Abrams, and Dingler headline the list by taking advantage of some favorable matchups and strong recent play? 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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